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Who else does Iowa need to overtake PSU?

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6 minutes ago, Mr. Poopy butthole said:

I dig the optimism in this thread but we are less than a month after watching PSU scoring 130 while Iowa struggled to reach 90. Now, having lost a bunch of hammers (albeit most limited by injuries), they're going to do better? Perhaps but I wouldn't hold my breath

Iowa in 2022:

125 - Got 0.5 from Drake, MAJOR upgrade as they'll get 25+ from Spencer almost certainly. +25 

133 - Got 16 from ADS, will drop if they aren't bringing in a transfer. Say -14? 

141 - Got 1.5 from a hobbled Eierman, let's say they get 20 from Woods (I think that's peachy but I think he's the favorite) +18.5 

149 - They get 4 from Max Murin. Candidly, I'm not giving Murin more than that since he's been blood round every year and I think it's more likely the pack catches him than he makes a jump. Wash. 

157 - Got 2.5 from Young. Since they don't have a clear solution here, I'm not even going to give them points. -2.5

165 - Got 12 from Alex Marinelli. That's about what I'd give Kennedy. Wash.

174 - Got 12.5 from Michael Kemerer. I think that drops to Nelson since I don't think he places. -9.

184 - Got 0.5 from Abe Assad. I think he'll definitely do better than that but I don't pick him to AA yet. Let's give him a pin or a few more backside wins. +2? 

197 - Got 17 from Warner. I think that's about his ceiling to be honest. But I won't tweak it. Wash. 

285 - Got 7.5 from Cassioppi. He was hobbled definitely by the end. He's definitely way better than 7th IMO. I'd give him 8 more even, he's a bonuser. +8

So that's 102 points from their tournament amount this year. Still a bit behind PSU with RBY (and some young talent) but I think Iowa will be much improved next year. 

Candidly, I gave Iowa 2 champs, Warner a finalist apperance, a top 5 AA from Kennedy and a major jump from Cassioppi. All of those are for the most part earned.

They need a step up from one of their unknowns (once again, assuming no more transfers) like Schriever, Nelson, Abe. Obviously injuries can change anything. 

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1 minute ago, IGotAPlan said:

Iowa in 2022:

125 - Got 0.5 from Drake, MAJOR upgrade as they'll get 25+ from Spencer almost certainly. +25 

133 - Got 16 from ADS, will drop if they aren't bringing in a transfer. Say -14? 

141 - Got 1.5 from a hobbled Eierman, let's say they get 20 from Woods (I think that's peachy but I think he's the favorite) +18.5 

149 - They get 4 from Max Murin. Candidly, I'm not giving Murin more than that since he's been blood round every year and I think it's more likely the pack catches him than he makes a jump. Wash. 

157 - Got 2.5 from Young. Since they don't have a clear solution here, I'm not even going to give them points. -2.5

165 - Got 12 from Alex Marinelli. That's about what I'd give Kennedy. Wash.

174 - Got 12.5 from Michael Kemerer. I think that drops to Nelson since I don't think he places. -9.

184 - Got 0.5 from Abe Assad. I think he'll definitely do better than that but I don't pick him to AA yet. Let's give him a pin or a few more backside wins. +2? 

197 - Got 17 from Warner. I think that's about his ceiling to be honest. But I won't tweak it. Wash. 

285 - Got 7.5 from Cassioppi. He was hobbled definitely by the end. He's definitely way better than 7th IMO. I'd give him 8 more even, he's a bonuser. +8

So that's 102 points from their tournament amount this year. Still a bit behind PSU with RBY (and some young talent) but I think Iowa will be much improved next year. 

Candidly, I gave Iowa 2 champs, Warner a finalist apperance, a top 5 AA from Kennedy and a major jump from Cassioppi. All of those are for the most part earned.

They need a step up from one of their unknowns (once again, assuming no more transfers) like Schriever, Nelson, Abe. Obviously injuries can change anything. 

This is my optimistic outlook as well so I could have clarified my post and said that I definitely expect an improvement from Iowa, just not in any meaningful way to close the gap with PSU significantly. At this point in time.

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Assuming RBY is back, PSU has 4 returning champs plus Kerkvliet. Their holes are covered by young talent Cael recruited hard who all have time in the room at this point.

125 - Howard (2 years in the room, redshirted this year, got healthy)

141 - Bartlett (2 years in the room, experience wrestling bigger guys now, his weight class clears out)

149 - Van Ness (redshirted this year, got healthy)

157 - Haines (spent Senior Year at NLWC)

165 - Facundo (Redshirted this year) 

Hard to imagine Cael losing with that kind of roster tbh. If I were PSU, I'd just focus on getting RBY to return rather than throwing any bags at transfers and roll with that. 

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9 minutes ago, BAC said:

Why do you say that?

He looked pretty good as a high school senior in two open college tournaments. He went up 8-1 on Andrew Cerniglia who is a Top 20 ish opponent before Cerniglia defaulted out. He probably has a ton of room to grow since he's so young and is just getting started. He also beat Paddy Gallagher but it was a very even match (Paddy was up 3-2 and Levi got a takedown and turk to win 8-3) and I think a lot of people have Paddy as a potential AA. Agree there should be brakes pumped but I can see why some think Levi Haines is ready to score at 157. 

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Just now, IGotAPlan said:

He looked pretty good as a high school senior in two open college tournaments. He went up 8-1 on Andrew Cerniglia who is a Top 20 ish opponent before Cerniglia defaulted out. He probably has a ton of room to grow since he's so young and is just getting started. He also beat Paddy Gallagher but it was a very even match (Paddy was up 3-2 and Levi got a takedown and turk to win 8-3) and I think a lot of people have Paddy as a potential AA. Agree there should be brakes pumped but I can see why some think Levi Haines is ready to score at 157. 

Thanks. I'm aware of those wins.  I think they show he's a promising recruit, but aren't remotely close to showing he's ready to be a point scorer at NCAAs.  Cerniglia is a solid wrestler but went 0-2 at NCAAs.  Gallagher had a good redshirt year but has no notable wins.  Haines also lost to a high schooler at Super 32 (Gaitan?) in October.  PSU is lucky to have him but I'm not convinced he could beat out Lee or qualify out of B1Gs.  Candidly I'd be shocked if PSU doesn't redshirt him.  The hype is too early on him.

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2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Even if Starocci doesn't win, he probably still scores about ~18.   So, sure maybe the 3 Iowa guys could match him if all 3 of them AA and Starocci doesn't win.   And like you said, that's not even counting Facundo or Van Ness (or Haines).

That's fair. 

Its probably true that Starocci + ? + ? is stronger than Brands/Murin/Kennedy but its within reaching distance. 

As I said before, Facundo's results don't suggest he's a point scorer yet.  He could jump levels in the offseason, but then again so could one of that Iowa triad.

I think the real wild card here is Van Ness. Its been radio silence from him this past year.  I don't know if he's turned into a monster this past year, or is burned out and about to take up sheep herding.  Will be curious to see if he wrestles freestyle this spring.

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3 hours ago, BAC said:

I think Iowa and PSU are actually very evenly matched at 2023 NCAAs.

Here's how I think about it.

The first two weights cancel each other out.  That is, I see Lee/Schreiber as interchangeable with RBY/Howard for points purposes.  Both RBY and Lee are favored to win.  Howard may be a touch more likely to score points than Shriever, but I think that's offset by the fact that Lee is a bit more likely to repeat than RBY (who has Fix again) and Lee is more apt to put up bonus.  Maybe those two weights slightly favor Iowa but lets call it a wash.

The last two weights cancel each other out too.  Dean is ever so slightly ahead of Warner, and Cass is ever so slightly ahead of Kerk.  Together they're a wash.

That leaves 6 weights.

141 and 184 cancel each other out also.  Brooks and Woods are both title contenders.  Brooks is more likely to win, but its closer than you think after 141 cleared out:  Brooks has Hidlay, Keckeisen and Truax and Woods has...what, Willets (who he's pinned) and Matthews?  I also think Assad is a bit ahead of Bartlett.  Maybe the Brooks/Bartlett duo is a bit better but since I called 125/133 a wash despite slightly favoring Iowa, I'm OK saying its about even so far.

157 cancels each other out, as neither PSU nor Iowa has anyone there.  

That leaves 3 weights.

Here we compare PSU's Starocci, 165 (Facundo/Edsell?) and 149 (Van Ness?) against Brands, Kennedy and Murin.  Its easy to see that the NCAA point totals project about the same for both, on paper.  On the PSU side, you have a likely finalist in Starocci.  But there's likely not more than 1-2 NCAA points from 165/149.  We didn't see anything from PSU at 165 this past year to suggest either Facundo/Edsell is apt to win more than maybe a match at NCAAs, and we know zilch about 149.  On the Iowa side, there's no finalist, but I see three legit low-AA candidates.  Murin has been ranked in the top 10 for 3 years running and was R12 the last two years, so you have to think AA is likely.  Brands is hot and cold, but lets not forget his only loss this year was 4-2 to Hidlay (who dismantled Kemmerer), and the year before he majored Venz, wrestled Brooks close and won a match at NCAAs.  AA is plausible.  Kennedy's redshirt year well outpaced Facundo's, with wins over Yant, Carlson and Fish (who beat Facundo), a 3-2 loss to Marinelli, and a SV loss to the AA from WV, Hall.  If those 3 Iowa guys can average 5-7 points among them, then they can match Starocci's point output.  

Put it all together and its pretty much a wash, where either team can take it if they exceed expectations or the other lays an egg, or even one PSU titlist gets hurt or upset early.

Honestly I think people are favoring PSU based on their usual game-day performance, where they tend to excel, whereas Iowa usually lays a few eggs.  That, and the fact that PSU guys seem more apt to suddenly and unexpectedly jump levels than Iowa, whose guys seem to plateau.  And that is fair, and may happen again in 2023, but it doesn't change the fact that on paper -- if we're not grading on a curve -- the two teams are pretty close to equal. 

Iowa has the puzzle pieces.  Now its in the hands of the coaches to get them there.

 

Super optimistic take on Iowa's chances.  The Hawks need at least two more big point scorers to get close to PSU (if RBY returns).

Lee/Schriever will not equal out with Howard/RBY.  Howard was R16 at NCAA's two years ago, and Schriever has never qualified.  If Lee is healthy, then he and RBY cancel each other out, but his health is a big question mark.  

Not sure that Dean/Kerkvliet are a wash with Warner/Cassioppi, as both Dean and Kerkvliet placed higher at NCAA's this year than their Iowa counterparts.

The combo of Bartlett/Brooks is significantly superior to Woods/Assad.  Woods will probably outplace Bartlett at 141, but it's closer than you think.  Brooks (2x NCAA Champ) is far superior to Assad (0x AA who has won 1 match at NCAA's in his career).  Also, Brooks is far more of a sure thing to win 184 next season than Woods winning 141, even though 184 is a tougher weight.  

The other three weights (149/165/174) also favor PSU by a large margin.  On paper Murin should place higher than SVN, but Murin's ceiling next year is 7th/8th unless he makes a huge jump.  Facundo and Kennedy are close on paper, as they are both high level recruits that have yet to compete as starters on their respective teams.  Finally, Starocci is a heavy favorite to win 174, and it wouldn't surprise me if he outscored Murin/Kennedy/Brands at NCAA's by himself.  

Iowa would need to add David Carr and Keegan O'Toole via the transfer portal to make the team race competitive next year IMO.

 

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32 minutes ago, BAC said:

Thanks. I'm aware of those wins.  I think they show he's a promising recruit, but aren't remotely close to showing he's ready to be a point scorer at NCAAs.  Cerniglia is a solid wrestler but went 0-2 at NCAAs.  Gallagher had a good redshirt year but has no notable wins.  Haines also lost to a high schooler at Super 32 (Gaitan?) in October.  PSU is lucky to have him but I'm not convinced he could beat out Lee or qualify out of B1Gs.  Candidly I'd be shocked if PSU doesn't redshirt him.  The hype is too early on him.

I think trend wise shows there's usually a true freshman or two that's ready to score points at NCAAs. Last year it was Hamiti and Drake Ayala (he would have been Top 6 healthy IMO) I don't see why it can't be Haines. As for his results ... he wrestled in 2 tournaments as a high school senior and hasn't lost a match yet so I don't know what he could prove in that other than he can handle older wrestlers well on the mats. Only Paddy gave him troubles (edge wrestled a ton) I also doubt he got any legitimately coaching from Cael/Casey since they were in the middle of the season. 

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4 hours ago, BAC said:

I think Iowa and PSU are actually very evenly matched at 2023 NCAAs.

Here's how I think about it.

The first two weights cancel each other out.  That is, I see Lee/Schreiber as interchangeable with RBY/Howard for points purposes.  Both RBY and Lee are favored to win.  Howard may be a touch more likely to score points than Shriever, but I think that's offset by the fact that Lee is a bit more likely to repeat than RBY (who has Fix again) and Lee is more apt to put up bonus.  Maybe those two weights slightly favor Iowa but lets call it a wash.

The last two weights cancel each other out too.  Dean is ever so slightly ahead of Warner, and Cass is ever so slightly ahead of Kerk.  Together they're a wash.

That leaves 6 weights.

141 and 184 cancel each other out also.  Brooks and Woods are both title contenders.  Brooks is more likely to win, but its closer than you think after 141 cleared out:  Brooks has Hidlay, Keckeisen and Truax and Woods has...what, Willets (who he's pinned) and Matthews?  I also think Assad is a bit ahead of Bartlett.  Maybe the Brooks/Bartlett duo is a bit better but since I called 125/133 a wash despite slightly favoring Iowa, I'm OK saying its about even so far.

157 cancels each other out, as neither PSU nor Iowa has anyone there.  

That leaves 3 weights.

Here we compare PSU's Starocci, 165 (Facundo/Edsell?) and 149 (Van Ness?) against Brands, Kennedy and Murin.  Its easy to see that the NCAA point totals project about the same for both, on paper.  On the PSU side, you have a likely finalist in Starocci.  But there's likely not more than 1-2 NCAA points from 165/149.  We didn't see anything from PSU at 165 this past year to suggest either Facundo/Edsell is apt to win more than maybe a match at NCAAs, and we know zilch about 149.  On the Iowa side, there's no finalist, but I see three legit low-AA candidates.  Murin has been ranked in the top 10 for 3 years running and was R12 the last two years, so you have to think AA is likely.  Brands is hot and cold, but lets not forget his only loss this year was 4-2 to Hidlay (who dismantled Kemmerer), and the year before he majored Venz, wrestled Brooks close and won a match at NCAAs.  AA is plausible.  Kennedy's redshirt year well outpaced Facundo's, with wins over Yant, Carlson and Fish (who beat Facundo), a 3-2 loss to Marinelli, and a SV loss to the AA from WV, Hall.  If those 3 Iowa guys can average 5-7 points among them, then they can match Starocci's point output.  

Put it all together and its pretty much a wash, where either team can take it if they exceed expectations or the other lays an egg, or even one PSU titlist gets hurt or upset early.

Honestly I think people are favoring PSU based on their usual game-day performance, where they tend to excel, whereas Iowa usually lays a few eggs.  That, and the fact that PSU guys seem more apt to suddenly and unexpectedly jump levels than Iowa, whose guys seem to plateau.  And that is fair, and may happen again in 2023, but it doesn't change the fact that on paper -- if we're not grading on a curve -- the two teams are pretty close to equal. 

Iowa has the puzzle pieces.  Now its in the hands of the coaches to get them there.

 

I appreciate your heavy analysis but your 2nd to last paragraph basically says it all. You can't not grade on a curve, Cael has proven it for the last 12 years basically. I don't even want to say Brands are underachievers since I think that narrative is false but when has a Cael coached PSU team choked a NCAA away? They've lost because they were simply outmanned (and yes that is coaching also) but when he has the horses there that can win, he just does it. 

While PSU has had their share of guys who don't pan out, the chances of 5 handpicked Cael recruits (Howard, Bartlett, Van Ness, Haines, Facundo) all being duds after extensive time in the room (except Haines) is just not very likely. I think the days of churning out a Bo Nickal/Jason Nolf are done after a DT/Ruth are done but I see point scorers still being developed from those kids. 

In fact, I'm pretty confident 2020 would have looked something similar to 2021. I think Iowa wins comfortably but PSU would have impressed Saturday night with 4 champs (RBY wasn't quite ready to win yet) 

Edited by IGotAPlan

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Gable Steveson is coming back for one more year and Roman Bravo Young as well. Ferrari can transfer from Oklahoma State and get away from the Grumpy Grandpa while he teams up with Steveson and they sit on the Brands twins to keep them quiet.

Both can transfer to Iowa - will that do it?

Edited by Casper

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1 hour ago, Casper said:

Gable Steveson is coming back for one more year and Roman Bravo Young as well. Ferrari can transfer from Oklahoma State and get away from the Grumpy Grandpa while he teams up with Steveson and they sit on the Brands twins to keep them quiet.

Both can transfer to Iowa - will that do it?

Where are you hearing that Steveson is coming back for next season?  He left his shoes on the mat after his finals match, and did a WWE event this past weekend.

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6 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

The most obvious weights that Iowa needs to upgrade are 133, 157, and 184.  They could also upgrade 149, but no point in bumping a 6th year senior out of the lineup.  

Its not just about what you need, we are going back to Gable era, buy the guys so your competition can't get them.  :)

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5 hours ago, IGotAPlan said:

Iowa in 2022:

125 - Got 0.5 from Drake, MAJOR upgrade as they'll get 25+ from Spencer almost certainly. +25 

133 - Got 16 from ADS, will drop if they aren't bringing in a transfer. Say -14? 

141 - Got 1.5 from a hobbled Eierman, let's say they get 20 from Woods (I think that's peachy but I think he's the favorite) +18.5 

149 - They get 4 from Max Murin. Candidly, I'm not giving Murin more than that since he's been blood round every year and I think it's more likely the pack catches him than he makes a jump. Wash. 

157 - Got 2.5 from Young. Since they don't have a clear solution here, I'm not even going to give them points. -2.5

165 - Got 12 from Alex Marinelli. That's about what I'd give Kennedy. Wash.

174 - Got 12.5 from Michael Kemerer. I think that drops to Nelson since I don't think he places. -9.

184 - Got 0.5 from Abe Assad. I think he'll definitely do better than that but I don't pick him to AA yet. Let's give him a pin or a few more backside wins. +2? 

197 - Got 17 from Warner. I think that's about his ceiling to be honest. But I won't tweak it. Wash. 

285 - Got 7.5 from Cassioppi. He was hobbled definitely by the end. He's definitely way better than 7th IMO. I'd give him 8 more even, he's a bonuser. +8

So that's 102 points from their tournament amount this year. Still a bit behind PSU with RBY (and some young talent) but I think Iowa will be much improved next year. 

Candidly, I gave Iowa 2 champs, Warner a finalist apperance, a top 5 AA from Kennedy and a major jump from Cassioppi. All of those are for the most part earned.

They need a step up from one of their unknowns (once again, assuming no more transfers) like Schriever, Nelson, Abe. Obviously injuries can change anything. 

I think this is fair.

So basically, with RBY staying, Iowa needs David Carr.  If he doesn't stay, they need Carr + O'Toole

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

Its not just about what you need, we are going back to Gable era, buy the guys so your competition can't get them.  :)

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you'll find
You get what you need

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20 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you'll find
You get what you need

And I went down to the demonstration
To get my fair share of abuse

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