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What's tOSU's Potential Next Year?

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I don't have a high opinion of tOSU's ability to develop talent,  but I think they're going to be the team that everyone's talking about by the midpoint of next season.  I doubt they can catch up to PSU, but if everyone at tOSU comes back who can, then I have to think they'll let their monster true freshmen wrestle.  And then I think they'd have a potential AA at every weight. 

I realize many will find it premature to consider the likes of Bouzakis and Mendez a potential AA, but to my eyes, its not an overstatement.  Same with Feldman, though I expect they'd RS him if Orndorff comes back for a final year.  Gallagher probably isn't AA level but he seems serviceable, and the rest of the lineup has no real holes.

Edited by BAC

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Potential is limited, but there many graduating seniors and ancient wonders this season.  As such, my thoughts:

125:  Heinselman.  I still think he's on the outside looking in at the podium. If 118 still existed, natty champ material, but those 7 lbs are significant at this weight.

133:  I think Bouzakis is the starter out of the gate and an upgrade vs. All other options.  Unfortunately, I don't think he is AA material right away and would absolutely benefit from a redshirt season.

141: D'emilio takes the spot and Mendez redshirts.   Dylan has a shot of AA in this largely depleted weight class.

149:  Sassos spot and if he gets back to headhunting instead of going dunkadelic constantly, he has the tools to win it all, or have another mid-AA finish. 

157: Paddy will be good, but I'm still not seeing him as a world beater like some of the 157 studs (I.e. Carr).  I think there are levels, and Paddy is on a level, just not AA level (yet).

165: Kharchla.  Has all the tools for a high AA finish.  I think he can beat Hamiti.  I don't think he can beat O'Toole.

174:  Smith:  comes out with a vengeance and has a 5th place AA finish like he should have this past year.

184: Romero.  Assumes he returns as well, and has a nice mid level AA to finish his career.

197:  Hoffman.  Repeating the draw and results will be difficult.  Gained confidence as season wore on and exceeded expectations.  Will be difficult to repeat in a high parity weight.  Could AA again or bout out going 1-2.

HWT:  Feldman.  I predict Ryan puts him in over Orndorff and he proceeds to have a great season.  He takes a few losses to upper tier guys but shooters are gonna shoot and he has a nice mid-AA finish as a true frosh against one of the deepest and most accomplished heavyweight classes, maybe ever.

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39 minutes ago, BAC said:

I don't have a high opinion of tOSU's ability to develop talent,  but I think they're going to be the team that everyone's talking about by the midpoint of next season.  I doubt they can catch up to PSU, but if everyone at tOSU comes back who can, then they'll probably their monster true freshmen wrestle, and then I think they'd have a potential AA at every weight. 

I realize many fill find it premature to consider the likes of Bouzakis and Mendez a potential AA, but to my eyes, its not an overstatement.  Same with Feldman, though I expect they'd RS him if Orndorff comes back for a final year.  Maybe not Gallagher, but he seems serviceable, and the rest of the lineup has no real holes.

 

 

 

 

I am not fully sold on Mendez.  I think he absolutely needs that first year in the room.  Swiderski worked him pretty good and I think he would also benefit a bunch from a 1st year redshirt.   But, I do agree when it comes to Bouzakis.  He is one of the most impressive high school wrestlers I have watched in quite a while.  The past few years he has really impressed me.  He seems like a very complete wrestler.  Now, the only thing that scares me with that is, can he jump levels in DI or has he already leveled off?  If his learning curve matches his work ethic, he could be another Logan Stieber type that puts them on another 4-5 year run.

But, looking at next year's best possible line up,  I still think they are probably fighting Iowa for 3rd place and am pretty confident PSU runs away with it and ASU takes 2nd...

tOSU 2022-2023

125:  Heinselman-2-5 points R12 is about his ceiling

133:  If this isn't Bouzakis, I don't see points here.  I really don't want to speculate on Bouzakis points until I actually see him wrestle attached.

141:  D'Emillio  I think this is his weight for certain this season.  I would say his production would be very similar to Heinselman.

149:  Sasso  10-18 points or so.  He could take 5th again and he could also be in the Finals.  But, I would feel pretty confident saying 5th is about his low end without significant injury.

157:  Gallagher- For now, I would look for something similar to 125 and 141 in production.  He had a solid redshirt, but no notable wins and 2 losses that aren't overly encouraging.

165: Kharchla-He found out just how deep 165 was finishing 7th.  The weight still stays pretty brutal, even with Wick, Marinelli, Wentzel and Valencia all gone.  Wittlake should be back and healthy and O'Toole, Griffith, Amine, Hamiti, Wittlake, Hall, Ramiraez, Conigliaro and McCoy still round out a pretty solid top 10.  WIth that said, I would expect a top 5 finish this year and 10-16 points seems a proper range for now.

174:  Smith-With Hidlay, Kemerer and Massa gone, he has a good chance to be battling plot for a mid range podium finish.  7-15 points is a pretty good range.

184:  Romero-The top 4 are out of reach, but I think he is the best of the rest.  10-15 points is another good range.

197:  Hoffman-He finally made good relative to his expectations coming out of High School.  Now, was it a bit of a fluke?  Maybe, but I think his confidence from that run should be enough to get him on the podium again.  4-10 point range.

285:  Orndorff-  Unless Feldman runs into a top 3 guy unattached and pins him, he isn't coming out of redshirt.  Tate is "Steady Eddie" and should squeeze into a bottom rung slot.  2-7 point range.

So, that puts them anywhere from 49-88 points, without figuring for Bouzakis.  Like I said, I think that is enough to get them a team trophy, but I think they are WAAAY behind PSU, even at their best and I just don't see them catching ASU and Iowa will be a dogfight...

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2 minutes ago, treep2000 said:

Potential is limited, but there many graduating seniors and ancient wonders this season.  As such, my thoughts:

125:  Heinselman.  I still think he's on the outside looking in at the podium. If 118 still existed, natty champ material, but those 7 lbs are significant at this weight.

133:  I think Bouzakis is the starter out of the gate and an upgrade vs. All other options.  Unfortunately, I don't think he is AA material right away and would absolutely benefit from a redshirt season.

141: D'emilio takes the spot and Mendez redshirts.   Dylan has a shot of AA in this largely depleted weight class.

149:  Sassos spot and if he gets back to headhunting instead of going dunkadelic constantly, he has the tools to win it all, or have another mid-AA finish. 

157: Paddy will be good, but I'm still not seeing him as a world beater like some of the 157 studs (I.e. Carr).  I think there are levels, and Paddy is on a level, just not AA level (yet).

165: Kharchla.  Has all the tools for a high AA finish.  I think he can beat Hamiti.  I don't think he can beat O'Toole.

174:  Smith:  comes out with a vengeance and has a 5th place AA finish like he should have this past year.

184: Romero.  Assumes he returns as well, and has a nice mid level AA to finish his career.

197:  Hoffman.  Repeating the draw and results will be difficult.  Gained confidence as season wore on and exceeded expectations.  Will be difficult to repeat in a high parity weight.  Could AA again or bout out going 1-2.

HWT:  Feldman.  I predict Ryan puts him in over Orndorff and he proceeds to have a great season.  He takes a few losses to upper tier guys but shooters are gonna shoot and he has a nice mid-AA finish as a true frosh against one of the deepest and most accomplished heavyweight classes, maybe ever.

I think we are on the same page from 125-197.  However, I just don't see tOSU pulling the trigger with Feldman unless he does something unattached that wows them into thinking he can place top 4.  Otherwise, I think Orndorff could finish nearly the same spot, even if he does it in a much less aesthetically pleasing manner!

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15 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

I think we are on the same page from 125-197.  However, I just don't see tOSU pulling the trigger with Feldman unless he does something unattached that wows them into thinking he can place top 4.  Otherwise, I think Orndorff could finish nearly the same spot, even if he does it in a much less aesthetically pleasing manner!

@treep2000's take on tOSU for next season is realistic.  Except I agree with you that they leave Feldman in redshirt his true freshman year.  Feldman is a little undersized, tOSU has Orndorff already (and he is a senior), and it makes the most sense to let 285 clear out a little bit (Parris, Hillger, and Laird all graduate after next season).  The only way I see the shirt being pulled is if Orndorff gets hurt and they need Feldman's points to get a team trophy.

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If Gavin Hoffman keeps progressing and Smith shakes off his bad NCAA’s Ohio state will get back into the Top 5 and it should catapult them with their monster recruiting class in there.

My bond prediction is Gallagher makes it to atleast the bloodround, I know his redshirt year wasn’t impressive however for him I think it was more about learning how to manage 157 pounds than anything else and Bouzakis will surprise people with how quickly he adapts to the college game. 

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This is very interesting analysis - thanks!   My sense is that there may be some wrestlers that have the leverage and made a deal coming in as to whether or not they will redshirt.  There may be some who want to redshirt and some who do not.  Anyone know what the many top recruits heading for Columbus want to do?

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10 minutes ago, Elevator said:

This is very interesting analysis - thanks!   My sense is that there may be some wrestlers that have the leverage and made a deal coming in as to whether or not they will redshirt.  There may be some who want to redshirt and some who do not.  Anyone know what the many top recruits heading for Columbus want to do?

I don’t have any inside info and my sense is that tOSU is getting all athletes great NIL deals, I do think that has something to do with this years class. 
 

As far as the future all I know is that Tom Ryan has said they aren’t done for 2022 and certainly not 2023.

my gut tells me they may pull off another big name for the 2023 class. But just a hunch 

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6 minutes ago, Riz23 said:

I don’t have any inside info and my sense is that tOSU is getting all athletes great NIL deals, I do think that has something to do with this years class. 
 

 

Can you explain how they can do that?

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12 minutes ago, ionel said:

Can you explain how they can do that?

Like I said it’s all Ohio State sports in general I believe they had the most NIL money received by athletes over this past year. 
 

Living in Columbus they have a deep support for Ohio State and plenty of prolific business owners who are not boosters who have zero issue giving athletes great NIL deals just because they are an Ohio State athlete 

Edited by Riz23

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28 minutes ago, Sstern said:

D’Emilio is absolutely an AA in my opinion and may not be the starter next year if Decatur comes back healthy.

Kharchla beat O’Toole.  The ref just didn’t call the TD.

Wasn't it a reversal? 

btw neither of those guys are placing. 

Edited by hammerlockthree

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Mostly agree with these comments, except I think people are way too high on D'Emilio and are understating how good Mendez will be from day 1.  Same with Bouzakis.  Hope Ryan lets both of them start if they earn it.  I'd love to see Feldman too but I can't expect them to bench a 6th year, past-AA in Orndorff. 

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Next year no....but in 2-3 years very much so. Lots of hints and rumors that Ohio State is not nearly done with recruiting in the 2022 and 2023 classes and there are some big names being floated out there. Ryan has said as much in an interview that was given a week or 2 ago.

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9 minutes ago, BAC said:

Mostly agree with these comments, except I think people are way too high on D'Emilio and are understating how good Mendez will be from day 1.  Same with Bouzakis.  Hope Ryan lets both of them start if they earn it.  I'd love to see Feldman too but I can't expect them to bench a 6th year, past-AA in Orndorff. 

Feldman will run into a Top 20 opponent while he's in redshirt and will major him, similar to how Parris majors everyone outside the Top 5.  He then reminds Tom Ryan by repeatedly taking Orndorff down at will in the room, and presto, shirt is pulled.  Just a hunch on how it'll go down.. 

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8 minutes ago, BAC said:

Mostly agree with these comments, except I think people are way too high on D'Emilio and are understating how good Mendez will be from day 1.  Same with Bouzakis.  Hope Ryan lets both of them start if they earn it.  I'd love to see Feldman too but I can't expect them to bench a 6th year, past-AA in Orndorff. 

If Feldman is better he is gonna get the spot. People are gonna "beat the crowd" if its orndorff. Marketing is part of this. 

Bouzakis style might not translate that well. He's kind of a meat head, the transition from wrestling boys to men might not be helpful.

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11 minutes ago, BAC said:

Mostly agree with these comments, except I think people are way too high on D'Emilio and are understating how good Mendez will be from day 1.  Same with Bouzakis.  Hope Ryan lets both of them start if they earn it.  I'd love to see Feldman too but I can't expect them to bench a 6th year, past-AA in Orndorff. 

Mendez was undersized against Swiderski.

He is wrestling 61kg(134lbs) at the Open.  How will he not be undersized for 141 Folkstyle?

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Also I wouldn't put much stock in the Swiderski loss. Fist off Swiderski is a stud.  Plus it's basically a tale of one guy getting bigger and bigger and the other guy is not. Mendez is gonna wrestle 61 kg at the US open which is about 134lbs  and he wrestled Swiderski at a catch weight of 145lbs. Swiderski has wrestled as large as 160 in 2022 already. Look back at all the freestyle wins Mendez has over accomplished college level wrestlers when he was a just a junior in HS  and you'll understand why he is ranked as high as he is.

Edited by DocBZ

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Just now, DocBZ said:

Also I wouldn't put much stock in the Swiderski loss. Fist off Swiderski is a stud.  Plus it's basically a tale of one guy getting bigger and bigger and the other guy is not. Mendez is gonna wrestle 61 kg at the US open which is about 134lns  and he wrestled Swiderski at a catch weight of 145lbs. Swiderski has wrestled as large as 160 in 2022 already. Look back at all the freestyle wins Mendez has over accomplished college level wrestlers when he was a just a junior in HS  and you'll understand why he is ranked as high as he is.

Swiderski just simply wasn't cutting for the team.  He intends to start at 141lbs for ISU next season.

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52 minutes ago, DocBZ said:

Also I wouldn't put much stock in the Swiderski loss. Fist off Swiderski is a stud.  Plus it's basically a tale of one guy getting bigger and bigger and the other guy is not. Mendez is gonna wrestle 61 kg at the US open which is about 134lbs  and he wrestled Swiderski at a catch weight of 145lbs. Swiderski has wrestled as large as 160 in 2022 already. Look back at all the freestyle wins Mendez has over accomplished college level wrestlers when he was a just a junior in HS  and you'll understand why he is ranked as high as he is.

If what you're saying about JM's weight is true, then aren't him and Bouzakis the same weight?  Does JM have the frame to be an effective 141 in the Big 10, or is he going to have the same issues that Malik has at 125 (being undersized).  

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24 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

If what you're saying about JM's weight is true, then aren't him and Bouzakis the same weight?  Does JM have the frame to be an effective 141 in the Big 10, or is he going to have the same issues that Malik has at 125 (being undersized).  

Ya kinda....Ryan basically said Bouz is the 133 this year and then mentioned Mendez if he can get down. Mendez is much taller thank Bouz though and will likely end up 141 in the coming years.

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1 hour ago, DocBZ said:

Also I wouldn't put much stock in the Swiderski loss. Fist off Swiderski is a stud.  Plus it's basically a tale of one guy getting bigger and bigger and the other guy is not. Mendez is gonna wrestle 61 kg at the US open which is about 134lbs  and he wrestled Swiderski at a catch weight of 145lbs. Swiderski has wrestled as large as 160 in 2022 already. Look back at all the freestyle wins Mendez has over accomplished college level wrestlers when he was a just a junior in HS  and you'll understand why he is ranked as high as he is.

Excellent observation. 

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