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rpm002

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Who will win the open?  Megaludis, Graff, and Gross (if he doesn't go up to 65 again) seem to be the favorites, but there are some young guns like Mendez and Tagg who could definitely make a run.  Wright is another wild card who is very talented even though we haven't seen him much lately.  Any predictions?  

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On 4/18/2022 at 7:19 AM, nhs67 said:

I think Gross, Graff, Nico, Wright are the Top 4, currently.  I would say in that order, as well.

Not knowing much about the others, I think I would go Graff/Nico (tossup), Gross, Wright.  I think Gross would not be himself at 61, and even if the cut doesn't bother him much, Graff is a great style matchup.... Graff struggles when he can't get to legs and excels when he can... I never recall him losing a shootout, which is probably what it would be.

Nico vs Gross would be interesting... no idea what would happen there.  That's probably a better matchup for Gross as Nico has struggled with the strength of Colon in the past and while his skillset is different, Gross *might* be able bully Nico a bit.

Graff has done better against Nico each time he faced him (10-0 loss, 7-2 loss, 6-4 win). In the last 2 matchups, there has been 1 takedown for each guy, but Nico got 2 laces when he won and Graff got 2 laces when he won (one of the only times I ever seen Nico getting turned on a leg lace... its hard to do when the other guy can do the splits!).  Nico was bringing it at the end though and may have won if there had been 1 more minute in the match.  Think it would likely come down to the last minute again if they hit.

 

Edited by rpm002

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18 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Doesn't Nico still have a day job outside of wrestling? If so,  I feel like that puts him at a disadvantage. 

Yes, he does, but pretty sure he has ever since he graduated from Penn State in 2016, so it is nothing new for him and he has beaten some strong wrestlers both domestically and internationally doing both (including Bronze at Yasar Dogu just a couple of months ago in his first competition coming off a big injury).

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23 minutes ago, rpm002 said:

Yes, he does, but pretty sure he has ever since he graduated from Penn State in 2016, so it is nothing new for him and he has beaten some strong wrestlers both domestically and internationally doing both (including Bronze at Yasar Dogu just a couple of months ago in his first competition coming off a big injury).

Still, how much better would he wrestle if he only wrestled? I am not suggesting he change anything either as it is his life to lead, just making an observation. 

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1 hour ago, rpm002 said:

Not knowing much about the others, I think I would go Graff/Nico (tossup), Gross, Wright.  I think Gross would not be himself at 61, and even if the cut doesn't bother him much, Graff is a great style matchup.... Graff struggles when he can't get to legs and excels when he can... I never recall him losing a shootout, which is probably what it would be.

Nico vs Gross would be interesting... no idea what would happen there.  That's probably a better matchup for Gross as Nico has struggled with the strength of Colon in the past and while his skillset is different, Gross *might* be able bully Nico a bit.

Graff has done better against Nico each time he faced him (10-0 loss, 6-2 loss, 6-4 win). In the last 2 matchups, there has been 1 takedown for each guy, but Nico got 2 laces when he won and Graff got 2 laces when he won (one of the only times I ever seen Nico getting turned on a leg lace... its hard to do when the other guy can do the splits!).  Nico was bringing it at the end though and may have won if there had been 1 more minute in the match.  Think it would likely come down to the last minute again if they hit.

 

I feel as of you are grossly underrating Gross here.

He has finally been allowed to focus Freestyle for a year and his results are pristine.  He takes guys who are able to get to legs and makes that his own offense too, btw.  The length there is a killer for folks not used to it 

Cut won't be a factor as 61 KG is his normal weight.

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9 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

He has finally been allowed to focus Freestyle for a year and his results are pristine.  He takes guys who are able to get to legs and makes that his own offense too, btw.  The length there is a killer for folks not used to it 

Right, that's my whole point... Graff's track record is very clear.... does extremely well vs counter wrestlers and struggles against guys who have superior leg defense like Ramos and Fix.   

2 examples of the former.... I believe Graff went 2-0 vs Nick Simmons (who had even more length than Gross) with one of those wins by Fall.  Graff also has a great record against Joe Colon, who is the ultimate counter wrestler in this weight class (won NCAA semi and something like 4 out of their 5 matchups in freestyle, including 3 by tech).  BTW, is there a chance Colon will enter or has he retired?  Would make this weight even more fun if he did!

Also, I'm pretty sure if 61 was not a hard weight for Gross to make, he would have been at that weight at the Farrell.  I have no inside information, but personally, I expect Gross will wrestle at 65 at the Open too and only entered at 61 to keep his options open.  But we shall see!

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1 hour ago, rpm002 said:

Right, that's my whole point... Graff's track record is very clear.... does extremely well vs counter wrestlers and struggles against guys who have superior leg defense like Ramos and Fix.   

2 examples of the former.... I believe Graff went 2-0 vs Nick Simmons (who had even more length than Gross) with one of those wins by Fall.  Graff also has a great record against Joe Colon, who is the ultimate counter wrestler in this weight class (won NCAA semi and something like 4 out of their 5 matchups in freestyle, including 3 by tech).  BTW, is there a chance Colon will enter or has he retired?  Would make this weight even more fun if he did!

Also, I'm pretty sure if 61 was not a hard weight for Gross to make, he would have been at that weight at the Farrell.  I have no inside information, but personally, I expect Gross will wrestle at 65 at the Open too and only entered at 61 to keep his options open.  But we shall see!

I expect that when Gross and Graff do meet for the first time, Gross will win handily. 

The proven track record for Graff that you are using is outdated and doesn't include any real tests dating back for nearly three years?  Hell, Graff got steamrolled by Carter Young in the consi-semis of the 2021 WTT.  He got the first takedown then it was all Young to the tune of a 9-2 destruction.  At least Gross's match was competitive until the very end (Gross was up 12-11 with a minute to go).  I think they both beat Young if they meet again, but even so... 

All this said, all your points are fair points.  We will have to agree to disagree, though.

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Fair points all.  But if we are playing the compare score game, on the front side, when it mattered most, Graff gave Fix his toughest match at WTT (and really the only close freestyle match Fix has been in since OTT besides Magomedov) in a tight 2-0 bout.  Fix teched Gross 11-0.  I think the Open will offer more evidence on Graff, but he looked to be in good form at the Farrell (3 first period wins and 0 points given up against a couple guys who are pretty solid). 

 

 

 

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On 4/20/2022 at 6:39 AM, nom said:

Mega is my hero.  I believe he has a full fledged career going and still finds the time to train and compete at a very very high level.

 

https://www.northwesternmutual.com/financial/advisor/nico-megaludis/

 

https://www.megaludisfinancial.com

Are you Nico Odysseus Megaludis by chance?

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Everyone on here underestimated Nico.  No Wright upset, Gross couldn't do anything against him, and then he took care of business in the final as well.  Hindsight is 20-20, but his international tournament performance should have been a clue he is back to form or perhaps better than ever.

Seeding at 61 for WTT should be something like:

1) Nico 2) Nato 3) JoshRod 4) Young 5) Graff 6) Gross 7) Mendez 8) Deshazer 9) RBY if he shows.  If that's right, Nico better be ready for RBY because that is a tough first match.... Kind of brings back memories from a few years back of 1 seed Graff vs 8 or 9 seed Gilman (Gilman won the QF 1-1 on criteria and went on to win WTT and World Silver).  

 

 

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USA Wrestling site lists NATO at 57 not 61.  If that is right, Graff/Gross almost has to be the 4/5 matchup, which will be fun.  The 2/3/6/7 side of the bracket looks much easier, but 2 and 3 beat Graff (and 3 beat Gross) so there's really no other option.

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Twitter says Young is going 65, so that would likely make the seeds:

1) Nico 2) JoshRod 3) Graff 4) Gross 5) Mendez 6) Deshazer 7) Kramer 8) RBY if he shows.  

Flo has Gross over Graff for the 3 seed.... they have eerily similar resumes (both lost to Fix and Carter Young last year, won Farrell, lost in semis and defaulted out at US Open).  Graff gave Fix a much better battle, but Gross was closer vs. Young and lost to Nico rather than JoshRod, so it could go either way.  Thinking Graff gets it because he has made a world team fairly recently and beat more guys at this weight (teched Kramer and pinned Deshazer) recently.  And it is kind of a big deal because I think whoever gets that 3 will get to the final.

Edited by rpm002

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