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15 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

I am. No reason to believe several weeks of get off bottom camp doesn't work for him. 

I think the piece that we have not seen is the ability to ride and turn guys.  In close collegiate matches, this can be the difference.  Facundo is a beast on his feet.

 

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12 minutes ago, TheHeel said:

How many weights will PSU win next year? should start the year with 5 guys at #1. 

That depends heavily on how close to 100% Ferrari is next season.  PSU has proven they simply get it done at NCAA's, but no one they have has clearly distanced themselves to the point they are locks.  I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again. Starocci still has Lewis.  Brooks has Keckeisen and Hidlay.  Dean would obviously have Ferrari and Warner.  Kerk still has Cass and Parris.  

If I had to pick most likely to least, from that list, I would go:

Brooks, Starocci, RBY and then considerably less likely Dean(contingent upon Ferrari's status) and Kerkvliet.

 

With all that said, the way PSU gets it done in the Finals, I would put the over/under at 3.5 and would probably bet the over...

 

Edited by MSU158

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4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Bo Nickal opened an American Top Team training facility in Pleasant Gap (Happy Valley? where do they get these names?)

Pleasant Gap?  Would be easy to make jokes about that place but most are below the belt.  

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24 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

That depends heavily on how close to 100% Ferrari is next season.  PSU has proven they simply get it done at NCAA's, but no one they have has clearly distanced themselves to the point they are locks.  I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again. Starocci still has Lewis.  Brooks has Keckeisen and Hidlay.  Dean would obviously have Ferrari and Warner.  Kerk still has Cass and Parris.  

If I had to pick most likely to least, from that list, I would go:

Brooks, Starocci, RBY and then considerably less likely Dean(contingent upon Ferrari's status) and Kerkvliet.

 

With all that said, the way PSU gets it done in the Finals, I would put the over/under at 3.5 and would probably bet the over...

 

Don’t know if he’d win, but I think Dean has to be ranked #1 even if Ferrari is back.  Dean of course wasn’t in the field when Ferrari won, so Dean is the champ until proven otherwise.

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3 hours ago, Elevator said:

I think the piece that we have not seen is the ability to ride and turn guys.  In close collegiate matches, this can be the difference.  Facundo is a beast on his feet.

 

The same guys that run the get off bottom camp also run the stay on top and turns camp. 

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

That depends heavily on how close to 100% Ferrari is next season.  PSU has proven they simply get it done at NCAA's, but no one they have has clearly distanced themselves to the point they are locks.  I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again. Starocci still has Lewis.  Brooks has Keckeisen and Hidlay.  Dean would obviously have Ferrari and Warner.  Kerk still has Cass and Parris.  

If I had to pick most likely to least, from that list, I would go:

Brooks, Starocci, RBY and then considerably less likely Dean(contingent upon Ferrari's status) and Kerkvliet.

 

With all that said, the way PSU gets it done in the Finals, I would put the over/under at 3.5 and would probably bet the over...

 

Great points. Great post.  Ty 

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21 hours ago, Henry said:

Maybe we will see RBY-Fix 3 in the finals. 

Fix has no shot against RBY, he'll move up (or maybe even down) to give himself a chance. Who knows what Spencer will be like after two major surgeries.

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3 hours ago, MSU158 said:

I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again.

I also have a feeling Vito will move up, with Lee returning the cut being so nasty for a full season, and the Cornell line-up being better with Vito at 133.

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Remains to be seen if a full year of Cael & Co in the room will get Dean more fluid and less Metcalf-like.

He needs some refinement to take on Ferrari and win - IF the car guy is fully recovered and has it together. Dean is tough enough but a grinder style wrestler.

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6 hours ago, MSU158 said:

That depends heavily on how close to 100% Ferrari is next season.  PSU has proven they simply get it done at NCAA's, but no one they have has clearly distanced themselves to the point they are locks.  I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again. Starocci still has Lewis.  Brooks has Keckeisen and Hidlay.  Dean would obviously have Ferrari and Warner.  Kerk still has Cass and Parris.  

If I had to pick most likely to least, from that list, I would go:

Brooks, Starocci, RBY and then considerably less likely Dean(contingent upon Ferrari's status) and Kerkvliet.

 

With all that said, the way PSU gets it done in the Finals, I would put the over/under at 3.5 and would probably bet the over...

 

Spot on

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20 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Don’t know if he’d win, but I think Dean has to be ranked #1 even if Ferrari is back.  Dean of course wasn’t in the field when Ferrari won, so Dean is the champ until proven otherwise.

No debate from me in regards to rankings.  Dean just won it, so he should be #1 to start.  On top of that we don't know how Ferrari will come back until we see a month or 2 of him on the mat.  There is no guarantee he will return to top form.

With that said, Dean inarguably had a ton of things go his way to barely sneak into the Finals.  He did what he needed to do to win, but they weren't the kind of wins that instilled a ton of confidence.  What makes that even more intriguing, is the fact that pretty much all the top 197's win that way.  A lot of 1 or 2 point matches from Warner, Buchanan, Elam, Bastida, Hoffman, Schultz and Bulsak.  Even Ferrari won a bunch of 3-2 or 4-2 type matches the year prior.  

I can't think of a weight with more parity than 197.  Yet, even with the close scores, the usual suspects seem to rise to the upper parts of the podium with consistency.

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4 hours ago, MSU158 said:

No debate from me in regards to rankings.  Dean just won it, so he should be #1 to start.  On top of that we don't know how Ferrari will come back until we see a month or 2 of him on the mat.  There is no guarantee he will return to top form.

With that said, Dean inarguably had a ton of things go his way to barely sneak into the Finals.  He did what he needed to do to win, but they weren't the kind of wins that instilled a ton of confidence.  What makes that even more intriguing, is the fact that pretty much all the top 197's win that way.  A lot of 1 or 2 point matches from Warner, Buchanan, Elam, Bastida, Hoffman, Schultz and Bulsak.  Even Ferrari won a bunch of 3-2 or 4-2 type matches the year prior.  

I can't think of a weight with more parity than 197.  Yet, even with the close scores, the usual suspects seem to rise to the upper parts of the podium with consistency.

Beard also part of the parity next year.  

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16 minutes ago, Elevator said:

Beard also part of the parity next year.  

Depending on where he ends up and when.  Obviously, he would fit right into the mix.  Just didn't include him until we actually know for sure he is somewhere else and wrestling...

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On 5/3/2022 at 12:54 PM, MSU158 said:

That depends heavily on how close to 100% Ferrari is next season.  PSU has proven they simply get it done at NCAA's, but no one they have has clearly distanced themselves to the point they are locks.  I wouldn't pick against RBY, but he still has Fix yet again. Starocci still has Lewis.  Brooks has Keckeisen and Hidlay.  Dean would obviously have Ferrari and Warner.  Kerk still has Cass and Parris.  

If I had to pick most likely to least, from that list, I would go:

Brooks, Starocci, RBY and then considerably less likely Dean(contingent upon Ferrari's status) and Kerkvliet.

 

With all that said, the way PSU gets it done in the Finals, I would put the over/under at 3.5 and would probably bet the over...

 

So you set the odds AND make the bet. I wanna be you!

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17 minutes ago, NJDan said:

So you set the odds AND make the bet. I wanna be you!

Not really.  I think 3.5 is a really accurate over/under that makes it really hard to bet the over.  I was simply saying that I would probably still take the over just because of PSU's success in the Finals under Sanderson.

Look at those 5.  Could you honestly tell me the over/under should be 4 or higher?  3, or even 2.5  is probably more fair.  But, 3.5 would entice a lot of betting BOTH ways.  That allows for people to bet on 3!

Edited by MSU158

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On 5/4/2022 at 2:36 PM, MSU158 said:

Not really.  I think 3.5 is a really accurate over/under that makes it really hard to bet the over.  I was simply saying that I would probably still take the over just because of PSU's success in the Finals under Sanderson.

Look at those 5.  Could you honestly tell me the over/under should be 4 or higher?  3, or even 2.5  is probably more fair.  But, 3.5 would entice a lot of betting BOTH ways.  That allows for people to bet on 3!

I agree that 3.5 is a good over/under.

But I’d also go over.  Keep in mind with Cael’s track record you probably can’t count out Bartlett, Haines, Van Ness or Facundo either…

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59 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I agree that 3.5 is a good over/under.

But I’d also go over.  Keep in mind with Cael’s track record you probably can’t count out Bartlett, Haines, Van Ness or Facundo either…

Yeah this guys should be solid, but I would put that over/under at .5 and would take the under. Yianni takes one of those away automatically. After that, 165 is still really deep and I don’t expect Carr to lose again at 157. That leaves Bartlett all of a sudden going from top 15ish a weight up to #1. I just don’t see that. Do I think they all have a chance to AA? Sure. But, I would be more confident betting the 0 on that over/under than I would betting the 4 on the other…

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On 5/4/2022 at 8:47 AM, MSU158 said:

With that said, Dean inarguably had a ton of things go his way to barely sneak into the Finals.

Dean got every Carl call of the tourney. Wouldn't have been surprised to see him slide to the 7th place match if he didn't get his gifts along the way. If you throw the top 12 in a blender, how many times do Dean and Warner match up in the finals? 1 out of 100?

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2 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Dean got every Carl call of the tourney. Wouldn't have been surprised to see him slide to the 7th place match if he didn't get his gifts along the way. If you throw the top 12 in a blender, how many times do Dean and Warner match up in the finals? 1 out of 100?

83

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Dean definitely isn't the favorite with Ferrari back. Even without him, I think most take the field over Dean.

That being said, on the flip side, I think Kerkvliet can definitely win it if he's healthy (as long as he finally figured out Cassioppi, which I think he will) 

PSU also scored almost nothing at their non AA weights last year (125, 149, 157, 165) and I think their young guys should pick up some points at (and Bartlett at 141) which can offset Lee's points. 

All in all, I don't think they're dominant as some might make them sound (going for the scoring record or 9 AA's) but they should score something similar to this year or a bit less and I don't think any other team is close to 115-120. This is all barring injuries which can change things fast. 

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