Last Chance

[nhs67 2,060]

A LOT of notable names are still missing...

IMar registered at 79, though.

https://www.usawmembership.com/usaw_events/2200123602?section=wrestler_list&registration_id=232&division_id=916&page=9

[nhs67 2,060]

If you are O'Malley or McBryde do you chance 79 KG with IMar, 86 KG with Nate Jackson, or do you suck it up for a chance at 74 KG, with Elroy Perkins looking to be the 1 seed?

[IronChef 1,100]

O'Malley has spent three seasons at 174, and you think he can just go down to 163 because he feels like it?

[nhs67 2,060]

42 minutes ago, IronChef said:

O'Malley has spent three seasons at 174, and you think he can just go down to 163 because he feels like it?

I didn't say that.

I asked if he, or McBryde for that matter, would suck down because Elroy Perkins is a much easier out than IMar or Jackson.

What is your answer to my initial question?

[nhs67 2,060]

If I am O'Malley I stay put.

IMar could be hurt and he doesn't look the same at 79 as he did 74.  His hirsepower advantage isn't what it was.  With Jackson... You got to score 10 fast points or he will.  O'Malley won't score 10, so there is that.  And 74, as MrCook says above is too much methinks.

If I am McBryde I go 74.  Even sucked out the chances against that field are much better.

Edited May 10 by nhs67

[spladle08 1,125]

If I am O'Malley I stay put.
IMar could be hurt and he doesn't look the same at 79 as he did 74.  His hirsepower advantage isn't what it was.  With Jackson... You got to score 10 fast points or he will.  O'Malley won't score 10, so there is that.  And 74, as MrCook says above is too much methinks.
If I am McBryde I go 74.  Even sucked out the chances against that field are much better.

All of this.

But also your IMAR take is so accurate, he's gotta be down at 74 to be "who we expect" .

And for the sake of world medals I really wish he never would've gone up and stayed cutting and tried to make 70. Imar at 70 really would've been a finals threat .

Clearly that's not a possibility anymore.
So sporadic top 6 talent is what we will get .

Maybe things will clear out post-olympics and he can make a team (I don't believe that's a possibility) maybe he'll become a fighter

[nhs67 2,060]

54 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

All of this.

But also your IMAR take is so accurate, he's gotta be down at 74 to be "who we expect" .

And for the sake of world medals I really wish he never would've gone up and stayed cutting and tried to make 70. Imar at 70 really would've been a finals threat .

Clearly that's not a possibility anymore.
So sporadic top 6 talent is what we will get .

Maybe things will clear out post-olympics and he can make a team (I don't believe that's a possibility) maybe he'll become a fighter

FWIW, I do believe that if and when IMar and Ringer meet at WTT the winner will be the eventual champion - whether in the semi-finals, the finals, or where ever it may be.

[spladle08 1,125]

FWIW, I do believe that if and when IMar and Ringer meet at WTT the winner will be the eventual champion - whether in the semi-finals, the finals, or where ever it may be.

I'm with ya. Trying to think of who all is there off the top of my head, but they're the clear favorites. I don't think Marsteller is far off most days. And guys like Carter S, McFadden, Cenzo, whoever else I'm forgetting, provide significant hurdles.
But If I'm picking somebody I'm picking
Ringer vs JB as the Final X
I'll be a little surprised if that doesn't happen, but if anyone is going to beat him Imar is the best bet.

[IronChef 1,100]

Martinez dropped out of the open literally one win away from qualifying and is now traveling the entire length of the country for the Last Chance Qualifier. I'm not sure which rounds happened when, but my guess is that he had no plans to make weight two days in a row and was dropping out no matter what after day 1. Fortunately for him, Last Chance is one day. The World Team Trials is two days, but I doubt we'll see him on day 2 unless he's in the finals.

His conditioning is bad, and I think any of the qualified wrestlers but one have a decent chance to beat him, though he could beat any of them as well. I'll be surprised if he is in the finals. I'm not sure he's that close to the same guy who took a match off Burroughs three years ago.

Where do you seed him? His results from the past year plus don't give him much criteria over anyone. His only results against the field are a loss to McFadden at the Open, a loss to Dieringer at the 2021 Trials, and a 10-7 win over Lujan at the 2021 Trials.

[TBar1977 4,539]

1 hour ago, spladle08 said:

I'm with ya. Trying to think of who all is there off the top of my head, but they're the clear favorites. I don't think Marsteller is far off most days. And guys like Carter S, McFadden, Cenzo, whoever else I'm forgetting, provide significant hurdles.
But If I'm picking somebody I'm picking
Ringer vs JB as the Final X
I'll be a little surprised if that doesn't happen, but if anyone is going to beat him Imar is the best bet.

Just off results I would put C Star ahead of Marstellar. He has beaten him 2x.

[spladle08 1,125]

3 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Just off results I would put C Star ahead of Marstellar. He has beaten him 2x.

I agree (admittedly I figured somebody would say that) but overall I value "Fartsmeller's" reasonably consistent results and growth over the last year, so I like him to most often be the next-tier threat. 
No matter where we throw the "Others" I can't proclaim any is a "dark-horse" finalist because they can all beat each other, and all would need a great match and a little luck to beat Ringer.

For any one match vs "The field" (those not named JB)
Ringer is favored against Everyone
Imar (ready to wrestle a full match) is "Favored" against everyone but Ringer
The rest of them are so match-up oriented, who got a lucky 4, who got the shot clock,  etc etc....  it's kind of hard to say "THIS GUY" is the biggest threat to be opposite JB... heck forget final X it's hard to confidently say "This guy will upset RInger/Imar and make the finals of the challenge tournament"

*there's a ton of guys that could upset them, vegas odds, Ringer/Imar (in shape or not) are the considerable  "Favorites"


 

[IronChef 1,100]

31 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

Imar (ready to wrestle a full match) is "Favored" against everyone but Ringer

That parenthetical caveat is large enough to drive a truck through.

[spladle08 1,125]

1 minute ago, IronChef said:

That parenthetical caveat is large enough to drive a truck through.

I mean, when that dude is focused and has his little motor purrrring, forget about it.
When he's gassed and looks like my grandpa after attempting to mow the lawn... I mean put him below tier 3

but..... assuming he realizes this is his career and lays off the suds (no idea why I assume he's casually drinking in excess for this hypothetical) he's the clear #2 at the WTT
 

[nhs67 2,060]

51 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

*there's a ton of guys that could upset them, vegas odds, Ringer/Imar (in shape or not) are the considerable  "Favorites"

Watch out using the 'favorites' term.  Apparently you cannot do that here.

[bnwtwg 1,065]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Watch out using the 'favorites' term.  Apparently you cannot do that here.

Imar is not the favorite to make the finals until he can get back down to 74. Ringer has his number because he grew into 79, whereas Imar has not proven this is his best weight until results say otherwise.

Signed,

Resident Illinois  troll  forum attendee

[nhs67 2,060]

Spartan Combat has entered.

The trio of Morgan, Foca, and Loew is interesting at 86 KG.

[TBar1977 4,539]

 

[klehner 734]

15 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Spartan Combat has entered.

The trio of Morgan, Foca, and Loew is interesting at 86 KG.

Including Saunders (65kg), Ramirez (74kg), Cardenas (92kg), and Fernandes (125kg).  So with both Diakomihalis' and Vito at WTT already, that's eight of Cornell's 2022 starters.

Note that 86kg Foca teched Max Dean a year ago (funny to see Dean looking over at Grey for a challenge)

 

[nhs67 2,060]

1 hour ago, klehner said:

Including Saunders (65kg), Ramirez (74kg), Cardenas (92kg), and Fernandes (125kg).  So with both Diakomihalis' and Vito at WTT already, that's eight of Cornell's 2022 starters.

Note that 86kg Foca teched Max Dean a year ago (funny to see Dean looking over at Grey for a challenge)

 

I assume you mean 2022-2023?

That is an impressive stat.  Could end up being 9, if Saunders pans out a bit better next year.

[nhs67 2,060]

Nate Jackson registered at 92 for today.

He should breeze.

That leaves 86 as the deepest, with 79 having the vest high-end. 

I still think O'Malley and McBryde would have had a better chance against the field at 86, even if undersized.

McBryde is the 4 and needs to beat IMar to make the finals.  He just lost to IMar in a 7-1 match that wasn't as close as the score would indicate two weeks ago.

O'Malley is the 3 and needs to beat Skatzka to make the finals.  Skatzka beat him at the '21 US Open with a 4 minute 10-0 tech where it didn't look like he had any chance the entire time.

Finals at 79 should be IMar and Skatzka.  If folks recall, at the '21 US Open Skatzka was up 9-0 and got pinned.

[spladle08 1,125]

Nate Jackson registered at 92 for today.
He should breeze.
That leaves 86 as the deepest, with 79 having the vest high-end. 
I still think O'Malley and McBryde would have had a better chance against the field at 86, even if undersized.
McBryde is the 4 and needs to beat IMar to make the finals.  He just lost to IMar in a 7-1 match that wasn't as close as the score would indicate two weeks ago.
O'Malley is the 3 and needs to beat Skatzka to make the finals.  Skatzka beat him at the '21 US Open with a 4 minute 10-0 tech where it didn't look like he had any chance the entire time.
Finals at 79 should be IMar and Skatzka.  If folks recall, at the '21 US Open Skatzka was up 9-0 and got pinned.

Solid post, appreciate it .
Yeah 79kg is something. I was wondering if anyone would go 92 cause there was literally nobody.

Totally agree on McBryde. Eh well bring on the surprising upsets

[Le duke 418]

This version of IMar gets wrecked by Starocci.


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[spladle08 1,125]

This version of IMar gets wrecked by Starocci.


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McBryde.... So close

[IronChef 1,100]

IMar is not a contender for the world team. He's three years past his best chance. 7-5 over McBryde while running for his life for the last three minutes. Previous match was 6-2 over this year's D3 runner-up. He may not even qualify for the trials. Skatzka can absolutely win this match.

[nhs67 2,060]

He needs to be 74.  He won't be able to be serious and at 74 while coaching full time.

Rock and a hard place, that there.