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According the the brackets, Metcalf gets Taghavi first. Other first round match to watch will be Yang (who has had some horrible draws of late) vs Israpilov, with the winner getting the #1 Georgian. Garcia's draw is decent, he can make the finals if he can beat Lopez IMO, Glad to see Yazdani is wrestling at 96.

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Tough draw for Metcalf. A lot of people think he is good enough to win a medal, even a gold, and I am one of them. That said, the draw doesn't really matter, if he is going to be a world champion he has to beat a guy like Taghavi, whether in the first round, semis, finals, doesn't really matter, and I'm sure that's how he is looking at it. Warm up hard, come out ready to fight for a gold medal right out of the gate. Here's hoping!

 

Escobedo's draw is decent, if it were Blanc in that spot I'd be picking him to make the quarters. Not sure if Escobedo has the experience to pull the same thing off, but we'll see. Not sure how Bergman will fair either. He has Gazymuov in his quarter bracket, but he has to win two matches to get that far. If he wins his first I say he makes quarters, if he drops his first he is likely one-and-done

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My predictions based on brackets:

 

55: semis, Kumar, India vs Akgul, Turkey

Rahimi, Iran vs Israpilov, Russia

 

Tough first round draw for the Russian with World champ and Olympic medalist in first round, plus top ranked Georgian in quarter bracket. My initial pick was Israpilov so I'll stick with it

 

Gold: Israpilov

Silver: Kumar

Bronze: Edisherashvilli, Georgi

Bronze: Akgul

 

66: semis, Kurbanilev, Russia vs Metcalf, USA

Robberty, Venezula vs Lopez, Cuba

 

I am clearly showing my bias here, but I'm rooting hard for Metcalf to get it done, and I believe he can. The rules help him, his years of experience internationally and his sense of still having something to prove, I think it all comes together for him. If he beats Taghavi first round I have no doubt he can beat anyone else in the bracket.

 

Surprise for me is Robberty down at 66. He gave Burroughs a run back in '11. He has a favorable draw, the bottom quarter of this weight is loaded. Garcia vs Azerbijian first round is tough, Garcia has to win 3 just to get Lopez in quarters. I think Metcalf can handle Lopez in finals.

 

Gold: Metcalf

Silver: Lopez

Bronze: Taghavi

Bronze: Garcia, Canada

 

 

96: semis, Boltukaev, Russia vs Gazyumov, Azerbijian

Yadzani, Iran vs Olynik, Ukraine

 

Pretty good draws all around, the best guys seem to be pretty well spread out. The health of past world champs Yadzani and Gazyumov will play a part here, if they are both 100% I would expect a match up of world champs in the finals. However, I originally picked the Russian, who I don't know much about, but I have to figure if he can get thru the 96 bracket at Russian nationals he can do it here as well. Tough 2nd round match for him with Tigiyev, but I'll go out on the limb and say he gets it done.

 

Gold: Boltukaev

Silver: Yadzani

Bronze: Gazyumov

Bronze: Olynik

 

Russia gets 2 gold and a 5th on day one with this new and young team. Iran puts two in the semis, get 2 medals and a 5th for 2nd in the team standings.

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great analysis MA Wrestler - thanks for posting. Looking at the brackets, I don't have anything to add, except that it would be nice if they finished connecting the pods so you could tell what quarter or half of the bracket people were in a lot easier. i mean, no one prefers brackets they way FILA has them, right? just seems dumb to me.

 

should be a fun first day. Metcalf-Taghavi and Irapilov-Yang look like the marquee first round match ups. it's probably not likely but i'm hoping the US can put the first 3 wrestlers through to the quarters.

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Took me a while to figure out with the unconnected brackets too. Basically, every 8 wrestlers is a quarter bracket, so out of every 8 I picked 1 guy to get thru to the semis, picked finalists from there. Not ideal, but certainly workable. I'm just happy to have brackets to look at!

 

As for the US chances on day 1, like I said earlier, I would pick Blanc to make quarters, but not so confident in Escobedo, but hopefully he proves me wrong. Same with Bergman, if he wins his first I think he's in quarters, if not he's one-and-done. Hell, if Metcalf doesn't beat Taghavi it's no cake walk to the finals for him, so we better hope if that happens Taghavi gets thrunto the finals or we could have a rough first day. Go USA!

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Tough draw for Metcalf. A lot of people think he is good enough to win a medal, even a gold, and I am one of them. That said, the draw doesn't really matter, if he is going to be a world champion he has to beat a guy like Taghavi, whether in the first round, semis, finals, doesn't really matter, and I'm sure that's how he is looking at it. Warm up hard, come out ready to fight for a gold medal right out of the gate. Here's hoping!

 

Escobedo's draw is decent, if it were Blanc in that spot I'd be picking him to make the quarters. Not sure if Escobedo has the experience to pull the same thing off, but we'll see. Not sure how Bergman will fair either. He has Gazymuov in his quarter bracket, but he has to win two matches to get that far. If he wins his first I say he makes quarters, if he drops his first he is likely one-and-done

 

Nice post. Your subsequent posts as well.

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It's interesting that Taghavi, the 2009 and 2011 World Champ, isn't ranked in the top 15 by FILA. Metcalf is actually favored at #7. http://www.fila-official.com/index.php? ... 13&lang=en

 

Also, it is ridiculous that they don't seed the brackets. I've heard several explanations, but they don't add up. Would any other sport put their top three athletes in the top quarter of the world championship bracket? (KURBANALIEV, SAFARYAN, & GOR) And then adhere to an archaic repechage system that guarantees that one of them cannot medal? Imagine if they did that at Wimbledon or the World Cup. The world would be outraged!

 

Metcalf has to beat the 2X #1 then the best of the top 3 to get to the semis. It should be all downhill from there.

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It's interesting that Taghavi, the 2009 and 2011 World Champ, isn't ranked in the top 15 by FILA. Metcalf is actually favored at #7. http://www.fila-official.com/index.php? ... 13&lang=en

 

Also, it is ridiculous that they don't seed the brackets. I've heard several explanations, but they don't add up. Would any other sport put their top three athletes in the top quarter of the world championship bracket? (KURBANALIEV, SAFARYAN, & GOR) And then adhere to an archaic repechage system that guarantees that one of them cannot medal? Imagine if they did that at Wimbledon or the World Cup. The world would be outraged!

 

Metcalf has to beat the 2X #1 then the best of the top 3 to get to the semis. It should be all downhill from there.

------

 

'96champ. I looked at the rankings and was wondering the same thing. How is it that a 2x world champ is not ranked? Was he out or injured?

 

Also, I share your sentiments regarding the lack of seeding.

 

55 kg - #1, #2, and #3 are all in the same quarter bracket. #2 meets #3 in first match. Fortunate for Escobedo, he's on opposite side.

 

66kg - #1, #2, and #3 are all in the same half bracket, along with 2x World champ, Taghavi (apparently Metcalf's first opponent).

 

Seems these brackets are very lopsided.

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Budapest is amazing place for wrestling. Small eastern euro country that loves wrestling. Great music in the arena also. Gets everyone pumped up. And it is safe too! Off to bed finally! Cant wait!!! First match Metcalf gets I think is the favorite. We will see right away if he is ready!!!

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Is Metcalf wrestling Ibrahim from Qat or the Iranian? Flo says Ibrahim=Mat.com article says Iranian and bracket says Iranian.

 

weigh-in postings said taghavi. brackets just after said Qatar. they missed putting a guy in the brackets.

 

it's now corrected.

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I believed the unseeded brackets are a deliberate decision to spread out the medals. If you remember one of the main talking points during the "save Olympic wrestling" stuff was the # of countries that had Olympic success at the sport. I don't like the unseeded brackets either but they may be a necessary evil. Regaring rankings, the FILA rankings heavily weight this year's international results, with little emphasis placed on prior world-level results or domestic competition. Hence, a 2x world champ who didn't wrestle much this year (Taghavi) has not earned a high ranking. Same with a wrestler with spectacular results in their national tourney (Khubetzy, Boltukaev) who didnt wrestle much internationally. I don't like the way they do it, as I have mentioned before- I think rankings should emphasize past world-level results and head to head matchups for maximum accuracy.

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the rankings are a good start, but they aren't doing them right. the system needs to be completely transparent. otherwise just have a seeding committee figure it out after weight ins.

 

ideally it would be run like the tennis ATP tour http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_World_Tour

 

instead of 4 grand slams youd just have 1 World Championship. other tournaments would have predetermined number of points for your finish. wrestlers would be incentivized to get those points to increase their seed for world championship tournment. at least thats how it work in theory.

 

at the very least, FILA needs to post the ranking rubric. they actually may have, i never really looked that hard for it. so i take back what i said if they did.

 

the 2 bronzes and lack of seeding may help spread the wealth around the nations. i always figured the 2 bronzes was just a way to cut down on the number of matches so the tournament could be shorter. another concession to the olympics. the lack of seeding i figured was because no one trusted a FILA run seeding committee to be impartial, so blind draws were better than crooked ones. of course that hasn't stopped the conspiracy theorists, but thats a whole 'nother topic.

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Unless the rankings produce seedings for worlds, or produce a real world champion (for example, adding up points from various Grand Prix tournaments, instead of just going with the winner of the World Championships), then it really doesn't matter how they do the rankings.

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right, they don't use them for seeding so it doesn't affect anything. but i thot remember that when the new rules came out they everyone agreed on the principal that seeding was a good idea, they just hadn't worked out the mechanism yet. i figured the rankings would eventually be used for that purpose. until they are, they have time to get it worked out properly.

 

you want the rankings to reflect who would be favored in a match, but you also want the process to me objective. media polls is one popular method, points from tournaments is another. seems like the FILA system is some opaque combination of both.

 

but yeah, until the "count" for something it's not really an issue.

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right, they don't use them for seeding so it doesn't affect anything. but i thot remember that when the new rules came out they everyone agreed on the principal that seeding was a good idea, they just hadn't worked out the mechanism yet. i figured the rankings would eventually be used for that purpose. until they are, they have time to get it worked out properly.

From what I recall, the proposed ranking mechanism would be to separate the medalists from the year before into separate quarters of the bracket.

 

you want the rankings to reflect who would be favored in a match, but you also want the process to me objective. media polls is one popular method, points from tournaments is another. seems like the FILA system is some opaque combination of both.

 

but yeah, until the "count" for something it's not really an issue.

I don't know what the FILA system is, but it looks like a points system from tournaments in this year only. It's not a serious ranking, because there is no serious world tour. The best guys skip minor tournaments (often everything except Worlds - but I think Yang skipped Worlds to go to focus on the Asian Championships one year).

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