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Penn State # of Champs

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Some oddsmaking questions:

 

1. What's a good over/under on the number of individual champs this year from Penn State? Set a number that will get equal action on either side.

 

2. It's not inconceivable, though it is very unlikely, that Penn State could win seven titles this year (125, 149-197). What odds would you need to bet on PSU getting at least seven champs? At least six? At least five?

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PSU getting seven champs 0% chance. Ed Ruth 98% chance

David Taylor 50% chance

Quentin Wright 45% chance

Andrew Atlon 45% chance

Dylan Alton 40% chance

Nico Megaludis 20% chance

Matt Brown 10% chance

 

If i was a betting man I would go with 2 champs. Think Ed Ruth is a lock and one of the other guys will probably get it done.

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Some oddsmaking questions:

 

1. What's a good over/under on the number of individual champs this year from Penn State? Set a number that will get equal action on either side.

2 champs

2. It's not inconceivable, though it is very unlikely, that Penn State could win seven titles this year (125, 149-197). What odds would you need to bet on PSU getting at least seven champs? At least six? At least five?

7 champs: 1,000 to 1

6 champs: 500 to 1

5 champs: 75 to 1

4 champs: 30 to 1

3 champs: 3.5 to 1

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Some oddsmaking questions:

 

1. What's a good over/under on the number of individual champs this year from Penn State? Set a number that will get equal action on either side.

 

2. It's not inconceivable, though it is very unlikely, that Penn State could win seven titles this year (125, 149-197). What odds would you need to bet on PSU getting at least seven champs? At least six? At least five?

Anyone care to do the same analysis for Iowa? For Okie St? For Cornell? For Minny?

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Some oddsmaking questions:

 

1. What's a good over/under on the number of individual champs this year from Penn State? Set a number that will get equal action on either side.

2 champs

2. It's not inconceivable, though it is very unlikely, that Penn State could win seven titles this year (125, 149-197). What odds would you need to bet on PSU getting at least seven champs? At least six? At least five?

7 champs: 1,000 to 1

6 champs: 500 to 1

5 champs: 75 to 1

4 champs: 30 to 1

3 champs: 3.5 to 1

 

I'd put $100 on 7 champs if I got 1000 to 1!!

 

I wouldn't expect to see that $100 ever again though.

 

I say that 2.5 is a pretty well set over/under for this season.

 

Ruth is a big favorite, pretty close to a lock as you will see.

 

Taylor's got a legendary feat to accomplish if Dake does stay at 165...if not he is a heavy favorite as well.

 

Wright is a gamer, especially at the NCAAs...but the weight jump may affect him and his style. Still, it is hard to bet against him.

 

The Alton's are PSU last chances for a title IMO. Andrew certainly has the ability, it will depend who is around him at 149. Dylan has a tough road through 157...and if Dake gets back down im sorry to say that Id put his chances to less than 5%...Dake's only obstacle is Taylor...nobody else has a legit chance to prevent him from #4 IMO.

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125 = 0% McD is going to win this one again.

133 = 0%

141 = 0%

149 = 0% I like Alton but we’re talking an NCAA title here and he hasn’t even made the podium.

157 = 0% if Dake is here and a reasonable (+50%) shot if Dake moves up.

165 = 100% regardless of Dake’s weight, Taylor isn’t loosing another college match the rest of his career.***

174 = 0%

184 = 100% - Nobody is beating Ruth this year.

197 = 75% - Wright is dynamic and always turns it up to 11 come NCAA tournament time.

HWY = 0%

So by my count that is two with a probability for three. I do think at least 6 guys walk away with hardware.

I am basing this off all the rumors about weight changes and redshirts, but until they step on the mat these are still just rumors.

*** Bubba Jenkins will be the answer to a trivia questions 30 years from now, kind of like Larry Owings.

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This isn't a sport of "almost", you either win or you don't.

 

I did give Alton a 50% shot if Dake moves up which does kind of go against my win or loose moto. I say this because you can throw a blanket over 2-5 at 157. None of them are spectacular and all of them are solid.

 

Some of these weights the favorite is way better than the rest of the group so they are at 100%.

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QUentin Wright has a 75% chance of winning a title at a new weight where a former champions is returning from Oly Redshirt. Oh yeah, that guy is a physical monster...not sure I see those odds being realistic.

 

 

The guy gave Taylor 100% chance against Dake.

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He might not be a "physical monster" but he is in my opinion the way more talanted wrestler and has two finals appearances in three tries. I'm giving his superior wrestling ability a 75% chance against a bigger more physical wrestler.

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QUentin Wright has a 75% chance of winning a title at a new weight where a former champions is returning from Oly Redshirt. Oh yeah, that guy is a physical monster...not sure I see those odds being realistic.

 

 

The guy gave Taylor 100% chance against Dake.

 

 

 

Yep; I dont think Dake can beat Taylor in a college match. I don't even think it is going to be close.

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QUentin Wright has a 75% chance of winning a title at a new weight where a former champions is returning from Oly Redshirt. Oh yeah, that guy is a physical monster...not sure I see those odds being realistic.

 

 

The guy gave Taylor 100% chance against Dake.

 

 

 

Yep; I dont think Dake can beat Taylor in a college match. I don't even think it is going to be close.

 

 

You're definitely half right.

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The guy gave Taylor 100% chance against Dake.

 

 

 

Yep; I dont think Dake can beat Taylor in a college match. I don't even think it is going to be close.

 

 

You're definitely half right.

 

I give him about 35% right.

 

And I'll take that bet on Taylor = 100%. Which means, how much do I win if I put a dollar down on Dake? Hell, I'll put a dollar on Caldwell too in case Flying Tiger goes all Tonya Harding on Dake.

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QUentin Wright has a 75% chance of winning a title at a new weight where a former champions is returning from Oly Redshirt. Oh yeah, that guy is a physical monster...not sure I see those odds being realistic.

 

Kilgore is going heavyweight this year.

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Andrew Alton: 15 % at 149

Dylan Alton: 20% at 157

Taylor: 40% if Dake goes 165.

Ruth: 70% (no one gets 100% due to possibility of illness, injury or getting upset)

Wright: 35% (has shown a propensity to make finals but there are some tough hombres at the weight)

 

Sanity emerges afterall.

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QUentin Wright has a 75% chance of winning a title at a new weight where a former champions is returning from Oly Redshirt. Oh yeah, that guy is a physical monster...not sure I see those odds being realistic.

 

 

The guy gave Taylor 100% chance against Dake.

 

 

 

Yep; I dont think Dake can beat Taylor in a college match. I don't even think it is going to be close.

 

 

 

 

Im about as pro-Taylor in this match as you can get. I firmly believe, and have argued, that the freestyle result can not be considered very sufficient evidence when considering a folkstyle match. I believe that Taylor can and will win.

 

However, that being said, to say his odds are 100% (or anything close) against Dake is just outright silly.

 

Remember, these are odds we are setting here, not opinions. This is a 50-50 split situation...a true toss up. Taylor's odds being 100% is absurd..

 

His odds wouldn't even be 100% against me, there is always that slight chance he will slip into a come at the moment i throw a desperation headlock and I will throw and stick him for the win!!

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Yep; I dont think Dake can beat Taylor in a college match. I don't even think it is going to be close.

 

 

You're definitely half right.

 

I give him about 35% right.

 

And I'll take that bet on Taylor = 100%. Which means, how much do I win if I put a dollar down on Dake? Hell, I'll put a dollar on Caldwell too in case Flying Tiger goes all Tonya Harding on Dake.

 

 

Infinity dollars. I may have forgot to carry a one somewhere.

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I'll take 7 Finalist 1,000 to 1

 

P.S. The PSU "Train"!!!

 

Some oddsmaking questions:

 

1. What's a good over/under on the number of individual champs this year from Penn State? Set a number that will get equal action on either side.

2 champs

2. It's not inconceivable, though it is very unlikely, that Penn State could win seven titles this year (125, 149-197). What odds would you need to bet on PSU getting at least seven champs? At least six? At least five?

7 champs: 1,000 to 1

6 champs: 500 to 1

5 champs: 75 to 1

4 champs: 30 to 1

3 champs: 3.5 to 1

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PSU getting seven champs 0% chance. Ed Ruth 98% chance

David Taylor 50% chance

Quentin Wright 45% chance

Andrew Atlon 45% chance

Dylan Alton 40% chance

Nico Megaludis 20% chance

Matt Brown 10% chance

 

If i was a betting man I would go with 2 champs. Think Ed Ruth is a lock and one of the other guys will probably get it done.

 

Using your stated odds and assuming each wrestler winning a championship is an independent event.

 

Probability of 0 champs = 0.13%

Probability of at least 1 champ = 99.87%

Probability of at least two champs = 91.8% (pretty good odds)

Probability of at least three champs = 67.37%

Probability of at least four champs = 37.53%

Probability of at least five champs = 13.25%

Probability of at least six champs = 4.39%

Probability of at least 7 champs = 0.08%

Probability of more than 7 champs = 0

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