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MSU158

Minnesota looks Tough as a Dual team

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After looking at Minnesota's lineup, IF/WHEN Steinhaus comes back healthy, they look darn near unbeatable. Against PSU they would be favored at 133,141,149, 157,197 and 285. The Alton's need to come back healthy, as they would only be slight underdogs. Retherford could win at 141. Still Storley could win at 174. Steinhaus(HEALTHY) is one of the few that I think could slow Ruth down enough to keep it to a regular decision. I am not yet sold on McIntosh. He is very good, but I will not give him a win over a returning AA until he beats one this year. Bonus at 125 and 165 look to be VERY important for PSU as I don't see it anywhere else and they would have to hold 174 while pulling off atleast 1 of the minor upsets. It may fall shy of calling them Heavy favorites but the chances of them winning 7 matches are considerably higher than the chances of PSU winning more than 5.

 

Against Iowa they would be favored at 141,149, 174, 197, and 285. This matchup is where a Healthy Steinhaus is Paramount. Even if you put Lofthouse as the favorite due to last year's NCAA results, I would still call Steinhaus the likely winner. Ness has a solid chance at beating St. John. Bonus pts. are not very likely in this dual so the first 2 weights are crucial for Iowa's chances. Again, the chances for Minnesota winning 7 matches look higher than Iowa winning 6.

 

Against OSU they would be favored at 141,149,184,197, and 285. 125 is a toss up. Ness again has a solid chance at beating Dierenger. Storley has beaten Perry before and could do so again. Bonus pts. are more likely at a couple of the weights Minnesota would be favored in, while I don't see any bonus for OSU. For the 3rd time, the likelihood of Minnesota winning 7 matches is much higher than OSU winning 6.

 

I know you have to wrestle the matches, but on PAPER a HEALTHY Minnesota team looks like this year's Dual Champions.

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After looking at Minnesota's lineup, IF/WHEN Steinhaus comes back healthy, they look darn near unbeatable. Against PSU they would be favored at 133,141,149, 157,197 and 285. The Alton's need to come back healthy, as they would only be slight underdogs. Retherford could win at 141. Still Storley could win at 174. Steinhaus(HEALTHY) is one of the few that I think could slow Ruth down enough to keep it to a regular decision. I am not yet sold on McIntosh. He is very good, but I will not give him a win over a returning AA until he beats one this year. Bonus at 125 and 165 look to be VERY important for PSU as I don't see it anywhere else and they would have to hold 174 while pulling off atleast 1 of the minor upsets. It may fall shy of calling them Heavy favorites but the chances of them winning 7 matches are considerably higher than the chances of PSU winning more than 5.

 

Against Iowa they would be favored at 141,149, 174, 197, and 285. This matchup is where a Healthy Steinhaus is Paramount. Even if you put Lofthouse as the favorite due to last year's NCAA results, I would still call Steinhaus the likely winner. Ness has a solid chance at beating St. John. Bonus pts. are not very likely in this dual so the first 2 weights are crucial for Iowa's chances. Again, the chances for Minnesota winning 7 matches look higher than Iowa winning 6.

 

Against OSU they would be favored at 141,149,184,197, and 285. 125 is a toss up. Ness again has a solid chance at beating Dierenger. Storley has beaten Perry before and could do so again. Bonus pts. are more likely at a couple of the weights Minnesota would be favored in, while I don't see any bonus for OSU. For the 3rd time, the likelihood of Minnesota winning 7 matches is much higher than OSU winning 6.

 

I know you have to wrestle the matches, but on PAPER a HEALTHY Minnesota team looks like this year's Dual Champions.

Interestingly, the "Big Four" (Iowa, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Penn State) all wrestle each other this year. I'll be tracking their standings against each other, probably just for the heck of it, but it will be interesting to watch.

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I know all the arguments and logistics to why there is a push to keep the NCAA Individual tournament the event that determines the team championship. I still think it is a shame that a "Recognized" National Dual Team Championship format cannot be agreed to. The incentive to field your best lineup every dual without FF's could only increase fan interest. When the chance comes to see 2 high profile guys wrestle, you don't have to worry which team is going to sit their guy out. I don't want to turn this thread into a "which is better" argument but I would like to see the top 8 or so teams put out their absolute best lineups in a dual tournament format. It sure would be a lot more fan friendly than the 3 day NCAA Individual tournament is and the Team aspect is more visually represented as well.

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Minnesota is indeed a favorite at those weights right now, but I think you have to acknowledge that some of this can change. Andrew Alton, if 100%, I'd favor him. Less than 100% I'd go with Dardanes. Storley is ranked 2 spots higher right now, but that is basically a toss up imo.

 

Hwt Minnesota is a huge prohibitive favorite. 133, 141, and 157 they are certainly favored, but not by so much they couldn't drop any one of those matches.

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Minnesota is indeed a favorite at those weights right now, but I think you have to acknowledge that some of this can change. Andrew Alton, if 100%, I'd favor him. Less than 100% I'd go with Dardanes. Storley is ranked 2 spots higher right now, but that is basically a toss up imo.

 

Hwt Minnesota is a huge prohibitive favorite. 133, 141, and 157 they are certainly favored, but not by so much they couldn't drop any one of those matches.

 

I am sorry but Alton has had 2 years to prove himself. I will NOT call him a favorite over a returning AA until he actually beats him. I didn't put Storley ahead of Brown, so I am assuming you mean McIntosh. Again, until proven, a non AA is not a toss up against a returning AA. PSU definitely has a chance to win, b

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MSU... IMO the answer is to have 2 DIFFERENT championships..track does it......... no reason wrestling shouldn't be able to...... the current tourney is a completely different animal than duals. Also it is the crown jewel of wrestling and works and should not be changed, it works great as it is.

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I know all the arguments and logistics to why there is a push to keep the NCAA Individual tournament the event that determines the team championship. I still think it is a shame that a "Recognized" National Dual Team Championship format cannot be agreed to. The incentive to field your best lineup every dual without FF's could only increase fan interest. When the chance comes to see 2 high profile guys wrestle, you don't have to worry which team is going to sit their guy out. I don't want to turn this thread into a "which is better" argument but I would like to see the top 8 or so teams put out their absolute best lineups in a tournament format. It sure would be a lot more fan friendly than the 3 day NCAA Individual tournament is and the Team aspect is more visually represented as well.

I'm not sure you would necessarily see the best lineups for each team, rather, the best lineups for each individual dual meet (ie. matching up).

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MSU... IMO the answer is to have 2 DIFFERENT championships..track does it......... no reason wrestling shouldn't be able to...... the current tourney is a completely different animal than duals. Also it is the crown jewel of wrestling and works and should not be changed, it works great as it is.

There's a difference...dual wrestling and tournament wrestling are the same sport, whereas indoor track and outdoor track are different sports (look them up...there are quite a few different events, and the tracks for indoor track and outdoor track are significantly different). The equivalent to having indoor and outdoor track championship would be having both freestyle and folkstyle championships, not having dual and tournament championships.

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I know all the arguments and logistics to why there is a push to keep the NCAA Individual tournament the event that determines the team championship. I still think it is a shame that a "Recognized" National Dual Team Championship format cannot be agreed to. The incentive to field your best lineup every dual without FF's could only increase fan interest. When the chance comes to see 2 high profile guys wrestle, you don't have to worry which team is going to sit their guy out. I don't want to turn this thread into a "which is better" argument but I would like to see the top 8 or so teams put out their absolute best lineups in a tournament format. It sure would be a lot more fan friendly than the 3 day NCAA Individual tournament is and the Team aspect is more visually represented as well.

I'm not sure you would necessarily see the best lineups for each team, rather, the best lineups for each individual dual meet (ie. matching up).

 

I agree with you and the point you make is what makes Dual Meets special.

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gonzo...agreed...........

 

SHP......... it's all running and jumping. Indoor started so that track folks could stay in shape for "the real track" and evolved to what it is today. Also IMO there is a huge difference between a dual tourney and an individual tourney....... there is a very good chance you would have differing outcomes.

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I'll take it one step further....Minnesota looks tough as a tournament team.

 

As good as they are they only have 1 likely champ(Nelson). Steinhaus, Storley, Schiller and Ness could squeeze into the finals but the stars would have to align perfectly for each guy. It is much more likely that no more than 2 of them make the finals and I would put the over/under at 1. Brancale is a 1-2 kind of guy. Thorn could finish 7-8 but is more likely a R-12 type guy. Both Dardanes are strong, but up a weight, are more likely middle to low AA's. Zilverberg looks similar to Thorn although I would say R-12 is more his ceiling. If everything goes their way, with 9 AA's and 5 finalists(1 champ) they STILL may not have enough bonus(not really a proven bonus guy to point to) to outscore PSU.

 

Obviously the health of each team will play a MAJOR part in March, but out of the roster potential each team CURRENTLY shows I think Iowa has the best chance to catch PSU. Ramos and St. John can and should win their respective weight classes. Evans and Lofthouse could squeeze into the finals. Telford(healthy) is a 3-6 type. Burak is in such a wide open weight he could go anywhere from 4-R16. Moore is much the same way as Burak. Kelly has done nothing to prove he will contribute. Clark and Dziewa are the Wildcards. Much like Minnesota, the stars have to align, but I think these 2 have the potential and their performance is the key to whether Iowa can challenge.

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I am sorry but Alton has had 2 years to prove himself.

 

You don't understand that there have been frequent posts claiming that AA will be a multiple national champ and make people forget about the Gorilla Hulk.

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Alton will smash Dardanes whenever they wrestle.

 

Which Andrew Alton? If the AA from the end of last year shows up I will bet whatever you want that AA does NOT smash Dardanes. Considering he had surgery and conditioning was his MAJOR enemy last year I have a VERY hard time picking him against a grinder like Dardanes. If he doesn't finish Dardanes early or hit a big move to coast he is toast.

 

People on here have been very critical of Grajales, including myself, and the way he took it to AA last year shows me that AA has A LOT of work to do for ANYONE not PSU biased to favor him against an All American.

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Still think Iowa is the biggest threat to PSU. Minnesota has a real nice lineup but they aren't going to have the high end finishes they would need... If last night is any indication, Ness is going to have a hard time adjusting to 157. He was down 6-1 in the 3rd against an unranked opponent before pulling it out with a fall. He won't be able to overcome those kind of deficits against the top 10 guys.

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If last night is any indication, Ness is going to have a hard time adjusting to 157. He was down 6-1 in the 3rd against an unranked opponent before pulling it out with a fall. He won't be able to overcome those kind of deficits against the top 10 guys.

 

Ness is a full-sized 157. You may have forgotten his slow start last year at 149. 3 of his first 7 matches:

 

Dylan Ness Dec Jordan Dix (The Citadel) 4-2SV

Cole Von Ohlen (Air Force) Dec Dylan Ness 10-5

Caleb Ervin (Illinois) Maj Dylan Ness 11-3

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Last night was typical early season Ness. If you watched him at Nationals you would have noticed he did very few risky things and finished with another AA honor. He's both frustrating and fun to watch. And when the money's on the line I'd, bet on him.

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