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qlayer

Data: top pins, top take downs? any data?

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I've heard people say that the most effective take down in wrestling is the head inside single leg (I have also heard it was the high crotch). I've heard the top pinning combination is the half nelson (I have also heard it was the cradle). The wrestler that scores the first take down ends up winning a certain percentage of the time?

 

Is there any long term studies, any concrete data or statistics for wrestling? Either High school, college or international?

 

I'm not interested in opinions, just looking for statistical data. I know there was a break down of scoring from the NCAA quarterfinals a while back on here, I cant find it now though...

It was interesting, although I'd like to see a larger sample, over many years.

 

Any data or stats welcome. Thank you!

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A good portion of the data is likely to be skewed as a result of certain refs refusing to call pins, where others call the pin where back points shouldn't even be awarded.

 

I won't even get into the reversal calls. I once saw a guy in the down position stand up, put in a merkle leg, then do a granby roll. After both wrestlers ended up out of bounds a reversal was somehow called. :roll:

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I can't give you exact statistics, but two wrestlers/coaches of some note both said the nearside cradle had the highest pinning %.

 

Len Kauffman who wrestled for Oregon State in the mid 1960s had a career pinning percentage of 87.1% in college. He told me about 75% of his pins came from nearside cradles.

 

Tommy Evans HOF wrestler/coach at OU stressed pinning. He would have the team go for 20 minutes straight taking turns with a nearside cradle locked up and wrestle live for 30 seconds, then the partner would switch positions. One of Tommy's teams reportedly pinned more than 50% of their opponents at the NCAA tournament. OU never finished lower than 6th (twice which led him to retiring), and always qualifying 9-10 wrestlers.

 

Look at Penn State, David Taylor and Ed Ruth pin many opponents with cradles. Now Jordan Olivet and Ed Ruth mastered the crossface cradle.

 

Wade Schalles a legendary pinner was excellent with the cradle.

 

Many people say a guy just got caught in a cradle. I promise you the guy applying the cradle didn't just catch him with a cradle, he was looking and working for a crad

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I guess I ran over the allotted number of words. With a cradle you don't need to breakdown the opponent, just get his head and knee together. It prevents the opponent from bridging which he can do against a half nelson or chickenwing.

 

USA Wrestling breaks down the scoring moves in the World/Olympic freestyle wrestling championships each year. The head inside single is always the number one scoring move. You can probably get their statistics.

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USA Wrestling breaks down the scoring moves in the World/Olympic freestyle wrestling championships each year. The head inside single is always the number one scoring move. You can probably get their statistics.

 

Does anyone know of where I can find USA wrestling's break down of scoring moves?

 

There was a link to a break down of scoring moves from the NCAA Quarter finals on here that a forum poster did. I lost the link and can't remember who did it. It had some good info in it. Does anyone know where I can find this?

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Thanks Andy! Good stuff! I'd love to see a similar study with larger sample.

 

Makes me wonder about the Fireman's carry. It seems to me that with all the funk counters to leg attacks that we see now, that the fireman's carry would start to make a comeback.

 

I'd also like to see a similar study for other levels (USA wrestling Olympic level!), or even high school. I imagine they have been done by someone. Google hasn't been helping me though...

 

Do you have anything similar with D3?

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I have looked for this data also. In fact, I got on to Amazon to find a book this summer that I read in the 80s by Ray Carson Jr. I think it was the last time that I saw someone attempt to look at this in a statistically sophisticated way. He wrote a book called "Systematic Championship Wrestling" published in 1973. While some of the techniques discussed in the book are irrelevant now, his approach to the question would be a useful starting point for anyone attempting to do this today.

 

Here are some questions to consider:

 

Do you include all matches, potentially skewing things by including presumably a high amount of success against weaker opponents? For example, what if there are only 10 pins in the last three rounds, 7 are near cradles. However, bars and halfs are pinning people like crazy in a dual between East Mungello and the Tripsy-Dipsy Seminary? Are they all weighted the same? The number of pins in a bar happy dual meet could be more than all the cradles in the last two rounds of the tournament- but it would statistically wash. Does points scored on an AA somehow count more in the analysis? To be useful, it probably should. To that end, it makes sense to look at relatively small samples, like the tournament. If you want to know what works on the best, you will have to only study that. of course, few of us are coaching at that level, so should we be studying our levels instead?

 

Should it include a risk/reward analysis as well? For example should stand ups rank higher than Granbys because their failed attempt statistically results in fewer points against than a failed Granby? What would the analysis look like on the head inside single if it included a differential for go behinds given up on defended attempts? Watch a youth tournament and how often does an initiator of a head and arm actually get pinned in a head and arm them self? That would certainly drive the "success rate" of the move way up if initiation and risk are not figured in it. Carson indicated on page 171 of his book- that in 16 years of NCAA Championship matches 592 stand ups were attempted, resulting in 179 points being gained by the initiator and 1 point being lost, making it the most effective escape. Sitouts for comparison were attempted 174 times, scored 66 points and gave up 7 points in counters.

 

Lastly, the mechanism for collecting would require some work, but could be done. Scorekeepers would have to be trained to act like medical billers with their own ICD-9 codes. Instead of "2td" it would need to be something like "2td, 809765832- High Crotch of non-specific origin, 098546232 Crackdown finish utilizing shelving technique,233678560 riding time maintained for 30 seconds or more through spiral variation" Carson claimed over 10,000 distinct techniques existed in 1973, what would the number be now?

 

That all being said- with computers I thought this would have taken off by now. It was on Carson's, and I dare say many other minds for forty years now. Alas, it is only a matter of time before big data has an effect on our sport. Of course like other big data- do we really have an algorithm that can utilize what we find out? Is the data big enough to improve upon observation and knowledge of existing coaches? What to teach, and when to initiate what level of risk, and how to string series together to match talents and body types to techniques, and the wildcard of innovation is still well beyond our statistical tools. At least for now.

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Agreed, this information would be fun and useful at so many levels. I'm sure injuries and scheduling would influence it, but still a fun thing to keep up with and another wonderful promotional piece for true wrestling fans to play with.

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The only stats that I remember was that the wrestler who gets the first takedown wins the match 90% of the time.

 

The second was that the wrestler with the better grip strength won 70% of the time.

 

i think these stats are more applicable to hs wrestling than college.

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After the '08 Olympics, the education guy at USA Wrestling (Sam Barber at that time?) published an article in USA Wrestler regarding the scoring tendencies of those participating in Freestyle. I want to say it was the November or December 2008 publication where that was found. That had some good, useful info in there, too.

 

Also, Dave Curby, the father of the late Jake Curby, puts out a lot of info in this same vein via his website: http://www.curbywrestling.com/sport%20science.htm. It tends to have a Greco slant in a lot of ways, for obvious reasons.

 

This could be wrong, but didn't www.foeldeak.com have a section that had scoring analyses at some point?

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