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Tech_fall15

How will Marstellar do in College?

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It's so hard to predict these things. Dustin Schlatter was super hyped, and lived up to every bit of the hype as a freshman, and then never won again (which would have been crazy to predict after the 2006 season).

 

In general, guys that are not yet remotely physically mature when they enter college (like Taylor or Dake), have the most room for improvement over guys that were physically very advanced for their age while in high school. But even that generalization isn't always true.

 

Many of the super studs were capable of beating good college kids while still in high school, or at least during their redshirt years. Kolat was placing at Midlands and beating college AAs in high school, right? And Dave Schultz was placing (and winning) at senior level tournaments at age 18. Now most guys don't have that sort of experience, which means we just won' know how they stack up until they enter college. Does Marstellar have any wins over good college kids like those guys did? If not, then all predictions will have to hold off until next year. At this point it seems reasonable to think he would at least get a few AA finishes, if not a title at some point. But there have been guys that were super hyped like Scott Winston that never AA'd, and CP Schlatter who looked like a superstar (at some points even in college) yet only placed 1 time. And on the flip side, who would have predicted 4 titles for Dake? Or only 2 for Taylor despite his amazing record? You never know.

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It's amazing how much Marstellar's prospects have dimmed since he decommitted from PSU...almost as if his biggest proponents have switched sides on him purely out of spite...

 

So, I will confess to being one of these, minus the spite, of course. But, having said that, there are valid concerns, the Altons being a prime example. To this day, as I watch the Altons, I am impressed with their superior talent. They are so much more talented than all but the best of the athletes they compete with, even in the Big Ten. But what is abundantly clear at this level, equally, is that so much more is required, which explains why the Altons haven't measured up.

 

I have no idea how Marstellar will fare. He wouldn't be the first PA stud to fizzle. The ingredients are there: he's undeniably short for the weight, which never helps; additional factors are burn-out; injuries; how does he handle set-backs -- does he lose confidence when he starts to lose, having never lost before?; does he thrive on adversity, etc.? Is he a Zain Retherford, or a Jimmy Gulibon/Morgan McIntosh?

 

We'll see.

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superold, you can think what you want about Chance. People once knocked Cary Kolat too.

 

Chance can score plenty on college guys. You'll see. If he is healthy, he will make a believer out of even a guy like you. Of course, the minute he slips up you'll be singing like a canary.

 

And I have told you in the past, Chance was in 10th grade and had pneumonia when that Iowa back up and the Penn kid both beat him by 1 point each. Neither of them would make 7 minutes with Chance if he is healthy.

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His height and the injuries are a big concern for me personally. The talent is obviously there, but he will be wrestling guys with a bit of a leverage advantage. The physical gap will be closed also. I'm not saying he can't come out and dominate, but I'm going to be skeptical until I see it. The most I can give him at this point is multiple time AA. I would not be surprised if he wins it all multiple times, but I also wouldn't be if he doesn't live up to expectations.

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superold, you can think what you want about Chance. People once knocked Cary Kolat too.

 

Please stop implying that I knocked Marsteller. I've never said anything bad about the kid.

 

Chance can score plenty on college guys. You'll see. If he is healthy, he will make a believer out of even a guy like you. Of course, the minute he slips up you'll be singing like a canary.

 

I'm sure he can score on plenty of college guys; there are plenty out there that I'm sure he can beat. I have nothing against Marsteller, I just never understood the Kolat comparisons. Going by the facts we have, they didn't make sense.

 

And I have told you in the past, Chance was in 10th grade and had pneumonia when that Iowa back up and the Penn kid both beat him by 1 point each. Neither of them would make 7 minutes with Chance if he is healthy
.

 

Why must you make excuses Tbar? Chance was healthy enough to take the mat. He wrestled those guys and was able to even be competitive. The reason he lost is because he had poor technique on his TD finishes late in the match. His fundamentals need work if he is going to do well on the college level. They're fine when he wrestles lower level HS, but he will be seeing a significant increase in competition when he enters college.

 

And the fact of the matter is Chance lost to an Iowa and Penn backup. He went 0-2 against D1 competition. Again, I don't understand why you make the comments that you make. How do you know that neither of them would have made it 7 minutes with Chance "if he is healthy"? First, this assumes that you know exactly how much his illness played a role in the match. You don't know if it made a meaningful difference or not Tbar. Why must you pretend that you do? Chance wrestled two matches that day and lost them both. He obviously had enough in the tank to wrestle that day. He had enough health/energy to win that day, but what he lacked was quality technique. Ignore that if you wish. It's too easy to simply say that "Chance would do this, or Chance would do that" when he doesn't actually have to do it. Those statements are meaningless. I could do it too.

 

And you comparing Chance to Matt Brown saying that he has way more offense and keeps better position is very funny to say the LEAST. The only evidence you have to support this is that he beats kids who are levels and levels below the competition Matt Brown faces very badly. That's it! Think about that for a second Tbar. Guess what? He also has way more offense against his competition than Jordan Burroughs does against his. Or John Smith had against his. I know a 6th grader who pinned all of his opponents within 10 seconds this year; he never gave up a td, escape, or reversal either. That's actually superior to what Marsteller has done this season. Is it fair for me to say that the 6th grader is a superior technician to Marsteller?

 

Oh, Tbar you are known for making predictions around here. You predicted Taylor and Cox to win ncaas, and you predicted PSU to win the team title. In light of those predictions, can you give a prediction for Marsteller's college career? You keep mentioning that Marsteller will dominate if he stays healthy. Okay. So if Marsteller stays healthy throughout his college career, what do you think he will accomplish? I'd really like to see your prediction.

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It's amazing how much Marstellar's prospects have dimmed since he decommitted from PSU...almost as if his biggest proponents have switched sides on him purely out of spite...

 

.....

 

I have no idea how Marstellar will fare. He wouldn't be the first PA stud to fizzle. The ingredients are there: he's undeniably short for the weight, which never helps; additional factors are burn-out; injuries; how does he handle set-backs -- does he lose confidence when he starts to lose, having never lost before?; does he thrive on adversity, etc.? Is he a Zain Retherford, or a Jimmy Gulibon/Morgan McIntosh?

 

We'll see.

 

Brutus, not being on the site that often and not knowing as much as most everyone on here, can you tell me what is meant by your post about McIntosh? I get that Zain has done outstanding this year but I was wondering about Morgan. Has he not lived up to expectations? Is he not what everyone thought? Thanks in advance.

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I think Marsteller will be an NCAA champion, barring injury or burnout, both of which are significant risks with him. To me, the question is how many he'll win, not if he'll win.

 

His height is an issue, but there are plenty of short NCAA champions: Cary Kolat (for 142), Alan Fried (for 142), Frank Molinaro, Chris Bono, Steve Mocco, Mike Pucillo, Trent Paulson, and the list goes on and on.

 

And to use a current example of a top freshman at the heavier weights, look at Gabe Dean. He is shorter than every opponent he's faced this year, and significantly shorter than the top guys at the weight. He still has a ton of work to do to be an NCAA champion, but my point is that he is competitive with anyone as a freshman, including Ed Ruth, which would've been unthinkable in the beginning of the season, when height would've been among dozens of reasons most would've used to justify why Dean could never beat Ruth.

 

For a guy of Marstellar's caliber, I think the height issue is overdone.

 

I also don't have that much of an issue with his physical maturity because Marstellar is so technically advanced. He is not like, say, Eric Grajales was in HS, using his physical superiority to overpower his overmatched opponents. Marstellar is so good primarily because of his technique, which should transfer very well to college.

 

His desire to go 174 is surprising to me for a different reason. If his top wrestling priority is to make an Olympic team, I don't understand his preference for 174 in college, which is in between freestyle weights 163 and 189. (As an aside, how absolutely moronic is it to have a 26-lb gap between those two weights???)

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174 is not a disadvantageous weight if you would like to 163. Although recent trends might suggest otherwise.

 

Considering that the top three (and arguably four, with Marable) guys in the freestyle ladder are all former 157 lbers who moved up to 165 throughout college, I disagree with you. I think 165 is the optimal weight for 163 in freestyle. I get that you can cut more weight in freestyle, but Chance is NOT a big 174 lber by any stretch.

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I think the CP Schlatter comparison is spot on.

 

I'll take that wager any day of the week. You are saying he will be a 1x, low AA? I wager at least a 3x AA with 1 or more titles. They are 2 completely different wrestlers. Chance is much closer to Dustin in terms of style and technique than CP.

 

Name the bet

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[C]an you tell me what is meant by your post about McIntosh? I get that Zain has done outstanding this year but I was wondering about Morgan. Has he not lived up to expectations? Is he not what everyone thought?

 

Let me say that McIntosh is one of my favorite wrestlers and I'm really rooting for the kid. All I meant was that his confidence really took a hit his true freshman campaign. IMHO, he's doing great now and comparing him to Ruth or Taylor, as some have done, is just plain not fair.

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I don't see Chance wrestling next year as a starter or entering many tournaments with Top competition. I think they will protect him from opportunities to lose until they feel he is fully ready. My guess would be a red shirt with limited opens against top guys.

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I don't see Chance wrestling next year as a starter or entering many tournaments with Top competition. I think they will protect him from opportunities to lose until they feel he is fully ready. My guess would be a red shirt with limited opens against top guys.

 

Did Chance happen to tech fall you or someone in your family? Or, by "chance", are you on the coaching staff at PSU?

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Feel free to stop worrying about Chance at 165. Dieringer is confirmed as moving up next season. Chance will be a much happier wrestler at 174.

 

I disagree that he will be happier. He will be MUCH less successful at 174 than he would be at 165. Winning makes wrestlers much happier than losing. The kid is short and built like a brick ****house. I believe he excels at 165, but, struggles a bit, in comparison to his talent at 174. What weight he goes is crucial in my prediction of his success.

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I don't see Chance wrestling next year as a starter or entering many tournaments with Top competition. I think they will protect him from opportunities to lose until they feel he is fully ready. My guess would be a red shirt with limited opens against top guys.

 

Now you're just starting to be obvious...

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I don't see Chance wrestling next year as a starter or entering many tournaments with Top competition. I think they will protect him from opportunities to lose until they feel he is fully ready. My guess would be a red shirt with limited opens against top guys.

 

 

Then you, my dear sir, pay no attention to college wrestling or Oklahoma State. Looking at the roster right now, Chance is the best 174 on the team. If that is the case, he will wrestle. John Smith has a HISTORY of wrestling true freshmen. He's very much in the opposite direction, in terms of using redshirts.

 

and to superold,

 

PUH-LEEZ with your "Chance is going to need better technique" line. Have you seen the kid? Technically, is able to wrestle with college kids now. And that has been the case since he was in the EIGHTH GRADE! What happened in that tournament is clear, he wasn't STRONG ENOUGH to finish those attacks. Now, knowing the kid as well as I do (through anecdotal evidence of his time at the OTC), it would make sense that if he was sick with pneumonia, he didn't perform as well as he should because he didn't have the strength required to beat a wrestler much older than he (this was the summer after his sophomore year for gosh sakes!). Please feel free to debate. I've been waiting for someone to prop up this "technique" line for a while now.

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superold,

 

PUH-LEEZ with your "Chance is going to need better technique" line. Have you seen the kid? Technically, is able to wrestle with college kids now. And that has been the case since he was in the EIGHTH GRADE! What happened in that tournament is clear, he wasn't STRONG ENOUGH to finish those attacks. Now, knowing the kid as well as I do (through anecdotal evidence of his time at the OTC), it would make sense that if he was sick with pneumonia, he didn't perform as well as he should because he didn't have the strength required to beat a wrestler much older than he (this was the summer after his sophomore year for gosh sakes!). Please feel free to debate. I've been waiting for someone to prop up this "technique" line for a while now.

 

Vhsalum, it was his technique that failed him in the match that I saw. I think he was plenty strong enough. His failure to finish was also on display in the Wiercioch match.

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While marsteller is a super talent I don't think it's a given that he makes the starting lineup for a couple of years. I don't see him replacining deirenger and with crutchmer and blees in that mix I don't think it's automatic. I tend to think that chance will have a tougher time w crutchmer than most think.

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superold,

 

PUH-LEEZ with your "Chance is going to need better technique" line. Have you seen the kid? Technically, is able to wrestle with college kids now. And that has been the case since he was in the EIGHTH GRADE! What happened in that tournament is clear, he wasn't STRONG ENOUGH to finish those attacks. Now, knowing the kid as well as I do (through anecdotal evidence of his time at the OTC), it would make sense that if he was sick with pneumonia, he didn't perform as well as he should because he didn't have the strength required to beat a wrestler much older than he (this was the summer after his sophomore year for gosh sakes!). Please feel free to debate. I've been waiting for someone to prop up this "technique" line for a while now.

 

Vhsalum, it was his technique that failed him in the match that I saw. I think he was plenty strong enough. His failure to finish was also on display in the Wiercioch match.

 

Well then, lets have it! What part of his technique was flawed? Please enlighten us with your analytic skills!

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While marsteller is a super talent I don't think it's a given that he makes the starting lineup for a couple of years. I don't see him replacining deirenger and with crutchmer and blees in that mix I don't think it's automatic. I tend to think that chance will have a tougher time w crutchmer than most think.

 

Blees, at best, is a 165. Likely a 157, and if he's the best guy in the room, don't be surprised to see him starting next year as a true frosh. One thing about John Smith... he cuts dem boys. He is definitely old school in that manner.

 

I would be absolutely surprised if Chance isn't beating Crutchmer when he walks in the room. A lot of people seem to forget that Chance has spent a lot of time at the OTC, and he does well against the senior-level guys.

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Well then, lets have it! What part of his technique was flawed? Please enlighten us with your analytic skills!

 

 

Look at his head position on his shots in his match vs. Rhoads. Also notice how he fails sink in his arm elbow deep when he's going for the finish to his single legs, his elbow is too far away from his body. He also had trouble with his footwork; he had trouble getting his legs under him when he got in on a few of his shots.

 

Those are a few flaws there, and there's more where that came from.

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In all of these kinds of predictions the smart money should bet the under. Out of ten "can't miss" high school stars you'll lose money on two (e.g. Dake, Taylor), probably be even on two, but make money on the other six. The odds are simply that there are relatively few factors that lead to improvement, and a longer list of things that can go wrong.

 

I think the two big upsides are kids who are young and or late bloomers who physically mature in college and therefore get better. In looking at Marstellar he doesn't seem to fall into this category. The other upside are kids who did well in HS on raw athleticism, but didn't have very good coaching, and therefore have a lot of upside. Although Kennard-Dale is no wrestling powerhouse, didn't I read that Marstellar was coached at Kolat's club in Maryland? And, since a lot of the discussion is that a reason for his success is his sound technique, it is not clear that he falls into the second category either. (Although the devil's advocate here is that John Smith is a proven great coach, and has taken PA high school stars (e.g. Jordan Oliver and Coleman Scott) who came from respected HS coaches at Easton and Waynesburg, and made them even better. (e.g. compare Scott to Shane Young, who had a similar high school career but then went to West Virginia and disappeared).

 

On the other hand, there are a list of potential negatives ahead. The obvious one is that from now on he will be wrestling D1 college wrestlers, not HS kids. Injuries are only a bad thing, it is hard to imagine someone coming out of high school and their health improving, it is more like the accumulation of problems and simply the increasing odds of a bad break the more matches you have. As far as his current back injury is concerned, I guess I would worry about that less than a shoulder injury, which seem like they sideline a number of elite wrestlers (Nickerson I think? Altons? etc.). I also suspect that he has been having trouble healing this year just because of the stress of the unbeaten streak, the recruiting distraction, the interviews, etc. If you watched his PA finals match on TV what I saw was less celebration of the 4xer thing than relief that the pressure was over. When you hear top athletes interviewed they always say that streak records are more impressive than single time (e.g. fastest time, longest throw) records since you have to go out every day, like DiMaggio, and not screw up, whereas the single time records sometimes result from a rare combination of factors that you never have to repeat.

 

Besides the competition and injuries there are also things like academics. Have not heard what kind of student he is, but it is hard to imagine that college academics would be easier than Kennard Dale high school academics, even if it is Okie State which, at least according to Sports Illustrated, makes the path for athletes as easy as they can. Then there are off the mat distractions, pregnant girlfriends, drinking, pranks gone wrong, bad roommates, trouble back home in PA, etc. pretty much all of which have the potential to bring down performance.

 

I wish the kid well but I wouldn't be putting down real money that he is the next Sanderson/Dake etc.

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