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Jaroslav Hasek

Number of NQs from CA and OR have plummeted. Theories?

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In 1998, 1999 and 2000, 95 wrestlers from California and 37 wrestlers from Oregon qualified for the NCAA Tournament. In the last 3 tournaments, those numbers dropped to 47 and 10, respectively (see below). Anyone have any theories as to why? Losing 4 programs in those 2 states during the interim years could not have helped.

 

ncaa-nqs-98-0012-14-trends-small.png?w=604

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Let's say that for every scholarship a program offers, they have about a 50% chance of getting a national qualifier.

 

California has lost UC-Davis, Fresno State, and CSU-Fullerton. Even though all of those programs were not fully funded they all had a handful of scholarships (lets say they offered an average of 4). Since Fresno was dropped before your dataset, we have two programs that probably offered between 6-8 scholarships in total (less than one fully funded program). So if a scholarship is good for .5 qualifiers on average, in the three years you looked at could account for 9-12 less qualifiers.

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thanks - i figured that probably had something to do with it, too. but didn't Fresno State get cut in 2006? that would be in between the two sets of data.

 

also, wouldn't the dropped programs being responsible for the decline imply that CA and OR aren't being recruited effectively, and that there are quality wrestlers still coming out of those states, just not finding their way on to D1 programs?

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Perhaps the new method of qualifying has a greater impact on the regional dispersion than historical conference results had? Teams may have had lower level recruits who would have mediocre seasons or slow starts, but peaked and performed well enough at qualifiers and NCAA's to maintain the historical numbers. That perhaps would have allowed a number of those who currently don't qualify now (because of slow start/late season season development/injury/etc) to have done so, and performed in the earlier Q system, and that might partially account for the difference....or not.

 

Or perhaps the Midwest and eastern schools have had success recruiting the top talent from those states but don't develop them enough to get off the bench?

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Yes, I was wrong on the dates. Fresno would qualify be in the data.

 

ccrider55, you may be correct. The Pac10, I would guess use to get more qualifiers when going by historic data than they did this past year when they earned it based on this year's record.

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It is a combination of 3 things. The first 2 are already mentioned:

 

1. Less programs in the West to take the kids

2. Qualifying has changed. The PAC 10 used to qualify like 38 kids a year from their tournament in old system.

3. Little guy programs are faltering. I can't speak to CA, but I know that OR had some great little guy programs in the 80's and 90's. OR used to represent greatly at Juniors and other National events. They don't seem to be as successful as they once were.

 

You really need to understand #3. There are more academies now than just community programs. The academies are not in the West and when you lose a great 1 or 2 leaders in community programs it has a rippling affect. Academies that can be making a difference in MO and MI rises are Bormet (even though was in Chicago, did he ever do Overtime or other clubs in MI?) and the Purlers in MO.

 

I wouldn't say those individuals get the credit, but use them as reference to changing of times.

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

 

 

In my opinion, out West, Yes. In the East, it could be defined more "regionally" so that theory would not necessarily hold true.

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

 

My view is that the correlation, if any, is particularly idiosyncratic to CA. CA, despite its massive size, has only one state tournament, which means that generally, CA wrestlers are under-scouted relative to wrestlers from other top wrestling states that offer multiple opportunities for HS wrestlers to place in states (as opposed to CA's one). So if you remove programs from CA, less of CA's top wrestlers will compete in D1 in college since the guys who didn't get scouted will stay home with fewer opportunities. This may not be true, or as true, for top states that are more heavily scouted, like your NJ, PA, etc.

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How many D1 programs were added in PA, Ohio, MI, MO, and New York between 2000 and 2012.....to account for the increase in qualifiers?

 

Again, likely the qualifying system change. The EWL and EIWA does pretty well for qualifiers while less so for All-Americans.

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

While this is definitely true, some states have historically over performed based on the number of D1 programs (Ohio, New Jersey) and others have underperformed (North Carolina).

 

I'd like to see North Carolina's numbers, if you have them.

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

While this is definitely true, some states have historically over performed based on the number of D1 programs (Ohio, New Jersey) and others have underperformed (North Carolina).

 

I'd like to see North Carolina's numbers, if you have them.

 

yeah sure, i'll try and get NC's numbers and post them here if i can remember to look it up tonight. i'll also be digging through some more of the NQ data and throwing up some results periodically on my blog, jaroslavwrestling[dot]wordpress[dot]com

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In this timeframe, PA has lost Slippery Rock, Duquesne, East Stroudsburg, and Millersville from the Division 1 ranks.

 

I refuse to believe a state could gain qualifiers while losing programs. that is impossible. qualifiers are directly related to the number of programs in the state. (sarcasm intended for njwc)

 

on a serious note: the qualifying system definitely affects the numbers. under the old system the number of schools from a particular state in the same conference did affect how many home state qualifiers there were. the system now is directly performance related. with pa schools now going to more conferences than ever with out of state competition you can't correlate the number of qualifiers directly to the number of schools.

 

EWL- Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, Clarion, Edinboro against 3 out-of-state

 

ACC- Pitt vs 6 out-of-state

 

EIWA- Lehigh, Penn, Bucknell, Drexel, F&M vs 13 out-of-state

 

Big Ten- Penn State vs 11 out-of- state

 

the EWL is the only conference that has more than 50% of the teams. looking into that further, only 9 of the 24 qualifiers were from PA.

 

when you dig even further into the home state wrestlers at PA schools the number of qualifiers is about 60% in state wrestlers

Bloom- 2/6 from pa

LH- 3/4 from pa

Edinboro- 2/7 from pa

Clarion- 1/2 from pa

Pitt- 6/8 form pa

Bucknell- 1/2 from pa

Drexel- 2/3 from pa

F&M- 1/1 from pa

Penn- 2/4 from pa

Lehigh- 7/8 from pa

PSU- 7/10 from pa

 

34/55

 

the schools that are a heavy percentage of in-state qualifiers (PSU, Lehigh, Pitt) wrestle against mostly out-of-state schools in their conference tournaments. the only conclusion that you could come to is that the new qualifying system gets the best 33 collegiate wrestlers to the tournament and a large percentage of them are pa natives.

 

back on topic: I think the fall has more to do with the state of the programs in the west. Bakersfield and ASU are shells of what they were in the late 90's. In 1999 the pac 10 sent 43 wrestlers. The pac 12 sent 18 this year.

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Sockobuw, I take it statistics wasn't your strong suit? Do you think that perhaps the programs dropped were the weaker programs, not providing many NQs to begin with? And do you think that the fact that while these programs were being dropped, other programs were also being dropped around the country(freeing up additional qualifier spots), and do you think that despite a state dropping a few programs, while maintaining far more than any other state, there would still be an advantage?

I'd be curious to know the number of qualifiers by state, and the number of in state programs.

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Ca has some very tough wrestlers. I expect the number of qualifiers and AA's to trend upward. Tirapelli and others in CA have done a great job in recent years getting the CA kids some exposure. CA kids are making a name for themselves at NHSCA events, Flo nationals, The Beast and Fargo. I am curious if the number of college commitments is on the rise for Cali kids ?

There are many opportunities for PA kids in PA but there are just about as many PA qualifiers that go to out of state schools. Coaches at PA colleges do not get a bonus for recruiting PA kids. Coaches will get the best kid they can get wether they are from PA or not.

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Ca has some very tough wrestlers. I expect the number of qualifiers and AA's to trend upward. Tirapelli and others in CA have done a great job in recent years getting the CA kids some exposure. CA kids are making a name for themselves at NHSCA events, Flo nationals, The Beast and Fargo. I am curious if the number of college commitments is on the rise for Cali kids ?

There are many opportunities for PA kids in PA but there are just about as many PA qualifiers that go to out of state schools. Coaches at PA colleges do not get a bonus for recruiting PA kids. Coaches will get the best kid they can get wether they are from PA or not.

 

I'm curious the ratio of in state vs out of state qualifiers for all states. I'm guessing there are far more Nj qualifying for out of state schools than for in state. Is that so for PA as well? What's the ratio?

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Not enough in-state opportunities. The big point people miss with in-state opportunities is the cost of attending for state kids. As good as PA is, and I believe they are the best, they have 11 Division 1 programs in-state. Kids that aren't "star" recruits can still wrestle at the next level and be able to afford to do so.

 

Elite CA kids get an opportunity -- McIntosh, Welch, Martinez, Nevills, etc -- but those below the superstar level are the ones that suffer, and in a state a large as CA, there are LOT of those kids.

 

Just my educated opinion but the majority of our 1st-4th place winners could wrestle at the D1 level. If we had 11 state programs, these kids would get opportunities and you would see kids like Port, Habat, etc that maybe weren't the top recruits in high school, but shine in college. Right now, there is nowhere for those kids to continue wrestling as they are not 80-90% scholarship kids at out-of-state schools and they can't afford to pay out-of-state tuition to walk on.

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Not enough in-state opportunities. The big point people miss with in-state opportunities is the cost of attending for state kids. As good as PA is, and I believe they are the best, they have 11 Division 1 programs in-state. Kids that aren't "star" recruits can still wrestle at the next level and be able to afford to do so.

 

Elite CA kids get an opportunity -- McIntosh, Welch, Martinez, Nevills, etc -- but those below the superstar level are the ones that suffer, and in a state a large as CA, there are LOT of those kids.

 

Just my educated opinion but the majority of our 1st-4th place winners could wrestle at the D1 level. If we had 11 state programs, these kids would get opportunities and you would see kids like Port, Habat, etc that maybe weren't the top recruits in high school, but shine in college. Right now, there is nowhere for those kids to continue wrestling as they are not 80-90% scholarship kids at out-of-state schools and they can't afford to pay out-of-state tuition to walk on.

 

100% correct.

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