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Jaroslav Hasek

Number of NQs from CA and OR have plummeted. Theories?

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if the pa schools only competed against each other for the qualifying spots you may have a point. however, they have to earn qualification spots for their conference then win in the conference. the EWL is the only conference that is heavy on pa teams. whatever makes you feel better about why another state is able to produce way above nj. was the 17 all-americans directly related to more in-state schools?

 

Why are you getting nasty about it? Where did I make this a PA/NJ thing? I compared PA to OH, NJ, CA, NY. It's a statistical fact. Why do YOU think PA is the only power state that has more in state NQs than out of state? There are far more out of state D1 programs, why is PA the only state that produces more in state qualifiers?

And yes, if you really need it explained to you, more in state opportunities = more in state qualifiers = more PA AAs.

Do you refute this?

 

I'll throw in Illinois. 21 NQs, 2 in state (9%).

 

 

the sarcasm comes from the fact you beat this topic to death. this thread wasn't about pa and in-state schools. however you thought it was a good example to make the correlation. I can't help your poor reasoning skills if you truly believe pa has more AA's because of the number of in-state DI schools. where it does affect pa is the amount of quality coaches in the state, but you aren't taking that angle. you are trying to downplay their success. opportunities are there because of the talent? or talent is there because of the opportunities?

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So you guys are saying there is a direct correlation between the number of D1 programs in a state, and it's number of national qualifiers? And if a state has more programs, they'll qualify more wrestlers?

 

you didn't make it a pa vs nj/ca/oh/ny thing?

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When Davis had a team, there were very few state champs from CA on it (I can't recall any off the top of my head). Not sure where the top Californians were/are going.

 

I'd like to see a rundown of where the top 4 placers in CA have gone the past few years - that list might partially explain CA's huge drop off in national qualifiers.

 

There appears to be very little correlation in the number of high school wrestlers a state produces and the number of AAs. The impression I get is that the important factors are quality of high school and college coaching (and maybe middle school / youth coaching).

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if the pa schools only competed against each other for the qualifying spots you may have a point. however, they have to earn qualification spots for their conference then win in the conference. the EWL is the only conference that is heavy on pa teams. whatever makes you feel better about why another state is able to produce way above nj. was the 17 all-americans directly related to more in-state schools?

 

Why are you getting nasty about it? Where did I make this a PA/NJ thing? I compared PA to OH, NJ, CA, NY. It's a statistical fact. Why do YOU think PA is the only power state that has more in state NQs than out of state? There are far more out of state D1 programs, why is PA the only state that produces more in state qualifiers?

And yes, if you really need it explained to you, more in state opportunities = more in state qualifiers = more PA AAs.

Do you refute this?

 

I'll throw in Illinois. 21 NQs, 2 in state (9%).

 

 

the sarcasm comes from the fact you beat this topic to death. this thread wasn't about pa and in-state schools. however you thought it was a good example to make the correlation. I can't help your poor reasoning skills if you truly believe pa has more AA's because of the number of in-state DI schools. where it does affect pa is the amount of quality coaches in the state, but you aren't taking that angle. you are trying to downplay their success. opportunities are there because of the talent? or talent is there because of the opportunities?

 

 

Wow, just wow. Are you that paranoid? Tirapell stated the exact same thing I did, why aren't you browbeating him? I showed all the power states, only one had more in state qualifiers than out of state. None of the other power states came close to the same percentage, why do you think that is? And of course, even you can grasp the fact that more in state opportunities = more NQs= more AAs.

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Why are you getting nasty about it? Where did I make this a PA/NJ thing? I compared PA to OH, NJ, CA, NY. It's a statistical fact. Why do YOU think PA is the only power state that has more in state NQs than out of state? There are far more out of state D1 programs, why is PA the only state that produces more in state qualifiers?

And yes, if you really need it explained to you, more in state opportunities = more in state qualifiers = more PA AAs.

Do you refute this?

 

I'll throw in Illinois. 21 NQs, 2 in state (9%).

 

 

the sarcasm comes from the fact you beat this topic to death. this thread wasn't about pa and in-state schools. however you thought it was a good example to make the correlation. I can't help your poor reasoning skills if you truly believe pa has more AA's because of the number of in-state DI schools. where it does affect pa is the amount of quality coaches in the state, but you aren't taking that angle. you are trying to downplay their success. opportunities are there because of the talent? or talent is there because of the opportunities?

 

 

Wow, just wow. Are you that paranoid? Tirapell stated the exact same thing I did, why aren't you browbeating him? I showed all the power states, only one had more in state qualifiers than out of state. None of the other power states came close to the same percentage, why do you think that is? And of course, even you can grasp the fact that more in state opportunities = more NQs= more AAs.

 

what am I paranoid about? I end up in a thread like this once every two or three years on here. you have it monthly with pa people. tirapelli and you are not saying the exact say thing. the underperformance of ca and the success of pa are very different. for ca guys to go out of state they must commit to a school that is not reasonable driving distance. I do question the fact that cal poly and Bakersfield aren't able to load up on in-state guys. they have cheap tuition and don't have competition. it seems like developing the talent to compete at the DI level is part of the failure. I will buy into the geography and cost being much more detrimental in ca. the cost of in-state at Rutgers and out-of-state at the psac schools is almost identical. the one thing in nj's defense would be that it is not as cheap to go to schools that offer wrestling than almost any other power state. that includes in-state and out-of-state options. once the pa kids get the cheap opportunity they still need to win the spot, earn a qualifying bid, and secure the bid at conferences. could the opportunities get an extra 5 or 6 guys to the ncaa's? sure. does it account for them doubling the field? not at all. when you start to attribute guys placing in the top 8 in the nation because there are more schools in the state it becomes laughable.

 

look at 141: port, henderson, retherford, durso

4 pa natives, 4 all americans, 4 different conferences, 3 of them from the pa schools didn't meet until the aa rounds all year, only 1 matchup between these guys at the tournament before the placing rounds (they mat again for 3rd). more opportunities has nothing to do with any of them being top 8 in the country.

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Being from and living in Oregon, it is kind of hard for outsiders to decipher what is going on.

 

Our NQ's have fallen way off because our DI opportunities have been cut 66% in the last 5 years. In addition, Oregon offers 6 higschool divisions, which has weakened the overall strength of our wrestlers. 3 time state champions are pretty common.

 

What is unseen is how those wrestlers do at other levels. Clackamas CC and Southern Oregon (go Raiders) are in the top 3 every single year. In addition, other college coaches leave here then recruit the hell out of Oregon, getting really good guys to go to other places in lower divisions and dominate.

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Here's the thing with California. Not only aren't there a lot of programs, there aren't even a lot of programs that are CLOSE. In a state like NJ, you don't have a lot of programs but you do have PA and NY within an hour or two drive of a bazillion (relative) progams.

 

If you are a kid in CA that takes 3rd in the state, you are a DI caliber wrestler in my experience. BUT, with the limited amount of opportunities in California are you really going to go across the country and pay out of state tuition just to wrestle? Especially considering how good the California public colleges are? If my son took 3rd in the state and he could either go wrestle at Michigan on a 25% scholarship or go to UCLA or Cal and not wrestle, I would have a hard time encouraging him to go to Michigan. (I am just picking a random school. The issues are cost and distance.)

 

With that said, Cal Poly in particular should be a much better program than it is. Granted you do lose most of the state champs to the Big 10 and Cornell, but still that program should be better.

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Is the culture in CA one that does not make many kids interested in wrestling at the college level?

 

Are kids just not interested in wrestling in college or not interested in the schools that offer wrestling?

 

Bakersfield is a dismal location to attend college except for the locals who want to stay close to home and the hardcore wrestlers. Remember, California is bigger in area and population than OH + PA + NJ combined and a lot of kids don't want to move hundreds of miles from home to wrestle for an average school in the armpit of the state. If more CSUs had wrestling (Fresno, Fullerton and Chico used to), more kids who want to stay close to home could wrestle. Cal Poly may be a public CSU school, but it's harder to get into than any other CSU and has a strong math/science emphasis. Not a lot of top wrestling recruits get in or want to go.

 

The top tier UCs could add more wrestlers too, but the key is the CSUs. At one point in the prehistory, UCLA had wrestling and USC considered adding it. Imagine the duals.

 

 

 

Could the lack of state credentials in the lineups be less indicative of a lack of talent but rather a lack of credentials based on the state qualifier system for the single championship? I mean, are the starters better than many of the state placers despite not placing? (This is sometimes the case in PA)

 

Having multiple state tournaments couldn't hurt CA wrestlers with college wrestling exposure. Informed coaches and scouts know that the CA State tournament is the hardest state tournament to place at, but probably don't want to "risk" money on a CA 2x round-of-12 when they could get a "blue chip" FL 2x Champ.

 

edit: typos

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Sock, I think you've lost your mind. I made this point one other time, a few years ago, and I stand by it. The stats bear out exactly what I've said.

Is CA more adversely impacted? Likely. But why do you see OH, NJ, NY with nearly identical in state percentages, compared to PA? Because PA HAS IN STATE SCHOOLS THAT OFFER D1 WRESTLING!

More kids from PA qualified for nationals this year from, what, 11 in state schools than all other D1 programs combined. The kids from other states don't have the same opportunities.

Period. Accept the fact that PA has this advantage. The other people with functioning brains on here see the correlation as well.

 

If you disagree, explain how 11 PA schools produce more NQs than all the other programs combined.

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NJWC, Why does PA have more schools that offer wrestling in the first place? Because on balance the interest in wrestling is greater here than anywhere else.

 

What do you base this statement on, other than your unbridled PA bias? There are many states with far higher HS wrestling participation number ratio to state population than PA.

 

Ill has a 16.4 k/12.8 million HS wrestler/state population ratio

NJ 9.8k/8.9 million

NC 9.4k/9.8 million

IA 6.7k/3.0 million

OH 11.6k/11.6 million

 

PA is 9.7k/12.8 million

 

I'm assuming that the attendance stats for the PA schools also support your argument? Are Bloomsburg, Drexel, Bucknell, etc packing them in for the home meets?

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Sock, I think you've lost your mind. I made this point one other time, a few years ago, and I stand by it. The stats bear out exactly what I've said.

Is CA more adversely impacted? Likely. But why do you see OH, NJ, NY with nearly identical in state percentages, compared to PA? Because PA HAS IN STATE SCHOOLS THAT OFFER D1 WRESTLING!

More kids from PA qualified for nationals this year from, what, 11 in state schools than all other D1 programs combined. The kids from other states don't have the same opportunities.

Period. Accept the fact that PA has this advantage. The other people with functioning brains on here see the correlation as well.

 

If you disagree, explain how 11 PA schools produce more NQs than all the other programs combined.

 

what i meant by "this kind of thread," was a state pissing match. in my mind it just stuck out to me that you always whined, made excuses, and tried to spin things to make pa look less dominant while trying to make nj look better. after you made this post; i searched your posts, and i could barely wade through the dapper dan posts.... 95% of your comments were to either disparage psu or pa. most of the back and forths were with some of pa's finest posters, well done. i will give you credit that you started to omit the fact that pa has more all americans because of more in-state schools. it is a start. when you look at out of state qualifiers pa still has 30. that is on par with the next best state's overall total. could you imagine how many out-of-state qualifiers pa would have if they didn't all flock to in-state schools :roll: ? if you wanted to count division I roster spots i will fully support your argument. but these kids have to win matches all year long to get their qualifying standards. it isn't because they are handed anything by 11 in-state division I schools.

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Bakersfield is a dismal location to attend college except for the locals who want to stay close to home and the hardcore wrestlers. Remember, California is bigger in area and population than OH + PA + NJ combined and a lot of kids don't want to move hundreds of miles from home to wrestle for an average school in the armpit of the state. If more CSUs had wrestling (Fresno, Fullerton and Chico used to), more kids who want to stay close to home could wrestle. Cal Poly may be a public CSU school, but it's harder to get into than any other CSU and has a strong math/science emphasis. Not a lot of top wrestling recruits get in or want to go.

Bakersfield and Cal Poly should be stacked. The fact that they aren't is a little confusing. Where are the top CA guys going?

 

The top tier UCs could add more wrestlers too, but the key is the CSUs. At one point in the prehistory, UCLA had wrestling and USC considered adding it. Imagine the duals.

I may not understand how this works, but I can't imagine that Cal States are too likely to add teams. Off the top of my head I can only think of 3 teams in California that make serious money off of football/basketball: Berkeley, UCLA, and USC. Fresno State and San Diego State have national name recognition. Otherwise, where could the money come from to support a D1 team? The Cal States don't need to boost male enrollment like D-III schools might.

 

 

Having multiple state tournaments couldn't hurt CA wrestlers with college wrestling exposure. Informed coaches and scouts know that the CA State tournament is the hardest state tournament to place at, but probably don't want to "risk" money on a CA 2x round-of-12 when they could get a "blue chip" FL 2x Champ.

I'd be interested in opinions on this. Does having one tournament hurt or help recruits/state strength?

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I figured you for some population argument. Take out inner city Philly and all those numbers change.

 

They shouldn't drop wrestling where large numbers of people actually care about it.

Ummm, are you saying PA is more urban than NJ? Or that you shouldn't count the population of large cities (cough, Chicago, cough)? Just say you're previous statement was wrong and biased, and move on.

Sock, I think you've lost your mind. I made this point one other time, a few years ago, and I stand by it. The stats bear out exactly what I've said.

Is CA more adversely impacted? Likely. But why do you see OH, NJ, NY with nearly identical in state percentages, compared to PA? Because PA HAS IN STATE SCHOOLS THAT OFFER D1 WRESTLING!

More kids from PA qualified for nationals this year from, what, 11 in state schools than all other D1 programs combined. The kids from other states don't have the same opportunities.

Period. Accept the fact that PA has this advantage. The other people with functioning brains on here see the correlation as well.

 

If you disagree, explain how 11 PA schools produce more NQs than all the other programs combined.

 

what i meant by "this kind of thread," was a state pissing match. in my mind it just stuck out to me that you always whined, made excuses, and tried to spin things to make pa look less dominant while trying to make nj look better. after you made this post; i searched your posts, and i could barely wade through the dapper dan posts.... 95% of your comments were to either disparage psu or pa. most of the back and forths were with some of pa's finest posters, well done. i will give you credit that you started to omit the fact that pa has more all americans because of more in-state schools. it is a start. when you look at out of state qualifiers pa still has 30. that is on par with the next best state's overall total. could you imagine how many out-of-state qualifiers pa would have if they didn't all flock to in-state schools :roll: ? if you wanted to count division I roster spots i will fully support your argument. but these kids have to win matches all year long to get their qualifying standards. it isn't because they are handed anything by 11 in-state division I schools.

Where did I say PA isn't elite? The number of pa kids qualifying would drop substantially if these other states had the same number of in state opportunities. The more unbiased number to loom at is total number of out of state qualifiers for all states.

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Where did I say PA isn't elite? The number of pa kids qualifying would drop substantially if these other states had the same number of in state opportunities. The more unbiased number to loom at is total number of out of state qualifiers for all states.

 

I'd like to see some type of statistic that could validate such a very loose and unverifiable claim.

 

I'd contend this -- with more programs in other states, it would also mean more kids who go Division II and Division III from PA (or those who ride the pine at power programs) would have Division I opportunities as well.

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from the discussions, im inclined to believe that more D1 opportunities within a state will have some positive affect on that same state's ability to produce D1 NQs. i'd like to test that theory more thoroughly by say, correlating NQs wrestling D1 in their home state to the number of D1 programs in that state over a period of a few decades or so. I'd also like to look at the corresponding movement of same state NQs and AA in other divisions to see if a reduction in D1 programs pushes kids to DIII, NAIA etc.

 

but a lack of data and/or time is going to shelve that project for the time being. im not at all interested in completing such a project to help support state bragging rights. i root for jersey wrestlers but i dont care at all about a contest to be crowned the best wrestling state or whatever. would i would like to to do is determine why some states produce more NQs or AAs than others and create a sort of best practices template so that other states can replicate those practices.

 

for example, if PA produced an outsized number of NQs and AAs by dint of a surfeit of D1 programs, then great! now how do they get support for those extra D1 programs? and how can other states locally duplicate that support? beyond just starting up more D1 programs (which we're all striving for anyway), what else might be the cause? then go from there.

 

at least thats the big picture plan anyway.

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where did i say, you said pa isn't elite?

 

you don't have a baseline for any of this statistical analysis you are doing. 100% of texas' qualifiers were out of state. wow! can you imagine how many qualifiers they would have if they had a few in-state schools that wrestled? you can't truly measure how it affects the numbers. many of those in-state pa kids are going out-of-state and would still qualify if there were 0 wrestling schools in pa. i did cite the out-of-state qualifiers. pa still won that race by a landslide.

 

way to dodge the all american comment. i think we finally have that part ironed out.

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PA is fortunate to have so many opportunities. What came first, chicken or egg ? Are there so many opportunities because PA wrestling is good or is PA wrestling good because there are so many opportunities ? Which came first ?

I have argued that coaching and recruiting is not a charity thing. Coaches want to win and will get the best talent they can from wherever they may live. Do you believe that if PA only had 4 DI schools that in state guys like Nico, Zain, Gulibon etc. would likely be sitting at home ? Coaches will get the best kids, even Cael continues to grab kids from out of PA. Do you think that Pitt would have passed on Dake because he is from NY if they had the chance to get him ?

We are very fortunate in PA. Wrestling has been more engrained in our culture, similar to football in Texas. (meaning even non fans know what wrestling is and likely know someone who has participated) PA is fortunate to have great coaches but the other key component is competition. I think that a selling point for PA recruits is that they are more proven. Top PA talent will face stiffer in-state competition week in and week out no matter what part of the state they may live in. All other states have a hotbed where PA had a few hotbeds and smoldering areas all over the state. That fact is shown in the maps of PA qual. and AA’s

My problem with the sentiment of the argument here is that some PA kids qualified for NCAA tournament or became an AA only because of the greater opportunities, as if they didn't earn it. There are conferences that have many PA kids that will qualify their fair share based on production at the NCAA tournament. Yes, there are a lot of opportunities but these are warranted because they are earned.

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"Because PA HAS IN STATE SCHOOLS THAT OFFER D1 WRESTLING!

More kids from PA qualified for nationals this year from, what, 11 in state schools than all other D1 programs combined. The kids from other states don't have the same opportunities."

 

 

How has PA sustained all of those programs?

 

If a prospective answer doesn't include a reference to a strong grass roots wrestling culture, it will be incomplete.

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jstock, I agree with your point but after giving it a little thought I wonder how limited the California schools are in their recruitment. It is a lot costlier to bring kids in for an official visit when they have to travel further, not to mention the lack of scholarships.

 

When talking about resources in the programs it is important to note that CSU-Bakersfield is funded less than Millersville was when they were Division-I and Cal Poly is funded like Bloomsburg while Stanford is funded like Lock Haven. As a result, it is hard to draw the parallels you mentioned with Penn State or Pitt.

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