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Jaroslav Hasek

Number of NQs from CA and OR have plummeted. Theories?

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Pinnum - Do you really think Cael was stressing about spending a few bucks to bring Nevills in for a visit ? Your theory does not add up. The colleges will spend the money on a top kid. What if the coach said, hey kid, we would love to have you take a look at our school, we could offer you X for scholarship but we can’t afford to fly you out for an official visit... I bet the kid and parents would find a way to check out the school if he really wanted to wrestle.

Do you have any idea why the top CA kids are not competing in Ca ? I know that the one school is not in the prime part of Cali etc. but do you think Edinboro, Lock Haven and Clarion are in in the best spots in PA ? Heck no but kids want to wrestle.

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California could get more qualifiers if they had a California Centric Conference. Teams that should start a conference:

 

Cal Poly (BW)

Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)

Grand Canyon (WAC)

Utah Valley (WAC)

 

Possible teams to join the conference:

Fresno State (Mountain West)

CSU Northridge (BW)

CSU Long Beach (BW)

CSU Davis (BW)

CSU Riverside (BW)

CSU Irvine (BW)

CSU Santa Barbara (BW)

CSU Fullerton (BW)

 

This would allow the Big West, Western Athletic Conference, or Mountain Pacific Sports Federation to sponsor the conference (if it didn't take a Wrestling only conference name.)

With the new qualifying system the nature of the conference has no impact on qualifiers. Increased opportunities would help, whether in one conference or spreads over the PAC, WAC, and other western D1 conferences. Add ten schools and I guarantee an increase (whether proportional or not would depend more on the commitment of the school and the effectiveness of the coaches).

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crider55 - doesn't matter how many schools have teams if the top talent does not fill those rosters. If the best are not wrestling and the conference does not produce then they will not get any increase in qualifier allocations.

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I do understand what you're saying but you can't draw comparisons with Cael and Penn State.

 

The better question would be: Is Moore at Lock Haven stressing about flying a kid in for an official visit? Maybe not, if they really think they have a shot at landing him. But what happens when you don't land him? Not only did you not get the recruit but you spent a large portion of your budget on trying to land him. How many of these near misses can a program endure and risk putting out a very weak product if they aren't able to land any scholarship worthy recruit? And is it even worth it to land one kid who is a 4x NQ who maybe becomes and All-American if it sacrifices a few other weight classes? UC-Davis learned what good a National Champion is if you don't have a lineup that is at least competitive.

 

But the real difference is the costs of competition for the California schools. It is easy for Moore to still be able to get his athletes competition against teams from many states and many conferences by just hopping on a bus. All of the California schools must fly for conference duals alone.

 

Yes, I agree that there is a culture in PA where the kids want to compete and are willing to make some more sacrifices. But I don't think your comparison using schools with a lot of resources and a full staff is anywhere close. And, frankly, I am not sure my comparison to the underfunded PA programs is even apt.

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"North Carolina is in the top 10 as far as high school participants are concerned. And Texas is 5th. Here are the 2013 numbers:

 

Thanks, hurricane.

 

2009 high school wrestling participants by state (source--themat.com article)

1. California 27,469; 2. Illinois 16,213; 3. New York 13,932; 4. Ohio 13,804; 5. Michigan 11,564;

6. North Carolina, 10,283; 7. Pennsylvania 9,900; 8. New Jersey 9,375; 9. Wisconsin 8,337; 10. Florida 8,332

 

2011 high school wrestling participants by state (source--themat.com article)

1. California 27,833; 2. Illinois 17,133; 3. New York 14,367; 4. Ohio 11,693; 5. Michigan 11,195;

6. North Carolina 10,724; 7. Pennsylvania 9,900; 8. New Jersey 9,718; 9. Georgia 8,490; 10. Florida 8,412

 

2013 high school wrestling participants (source--posted in this thread earlier)

1. California 27,634, 2. Illinois 16,385, 3. New York 13,668, 4. Ohio 11,581, 5. Texas 10,639

6. Michigan 10,374, 7. New Jersey 9,893, 8. Pennsylvania 9,740, 9. North Carolina 9,441, 10. Georgia 8,730

 

One suspects that Texas has had a big jump in participation over the last 15 years. Perhaps that is also true of Georgia, but no evidence to show one way or the other. Not pleased with Ohio's percentage drop.

 

California is, of course way up there. One state champ for every 1900+ wrestlers. It's been suggested that CA should have more than one division to increase exposure for it's best wrestlers.

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ccrider and jstock

 

That is not entirely true. You are forgetting about the old East Region.

 

Remember that every qualifying conference is entitled to have their conference champion represented at the NCAA Championships. This mean's that if Cleveland State, George Mason, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, VMI and an upstart Fresno State all were in their own conference this past year they would have had many more qualifiers. (I believe none of these programs had a qualifier, but together that would be entitled to a minimum of 10 bids)

 

So by removing themselves from a conference with Oregon State, Stanford, and Arizona State, the non-Pac12 schools could actually see an increase in bids without increasing their talent level. (I know people are wondering what would come of the Pac 12 and I think a merger with the Big12 would have solved the problem)

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Pinnum - Do you really think Cael was stressing about spending a few bucks to bring Nevills in for a visit ? Your theory does not add up. The colleges will spend the money on a top kid. What if the coach said, hey kid, we would love to have you take a look at our school, we could offer you X for scholarship but we can’t afford to fly you out for an official visit... I bet the kid and parents would find a way to check out the school if he really wanted to wrestle.

Do you have any idea why the top CA kids are not competing in Ca ? I know that the one school is not in the prime part of Cali etc. but do you think Edinboro, Lock Haven and Clarion are in in the best spots in PA ? Heck no but kids want to wrestle.

One not prime, one difficult to get into and comparatively underfunded, and Harvard of the west with under 9k undergrads. So...wrestle in the so called armpit that has been cut and shoestring saved recently, an an expensive semi elite barely D1, or be an elite of elite student that has his pick of top schools and chose one where wrestling isn't unemphasized.

 

Underfunded, unemphasized programs don't have the recruiting budget the bigs have. Self recruiting be the wrestlers is not the method that the successful programs rely on, although their history would make it far easier than at lower profile places.

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ccrider and jstock

 

That is not entirely true. You are forgetting about the old East Region.

 

Remember that every qualifying conference is entitled to have their conference champion represented at the NCAA Championships. This mean's that if Cleveland State, George Mason, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, VMI and an upstart Fresno State all were in their own conference this past year they would have had many more qualifiers. (I believe none of these programs had a qualifier, but together that would be entitled to a minimum of 10 bids)

True, but insignificant in this argument.

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ccrider and jstock

 

That is not entirely true. You are forgetting about the old East Region.

 

Remember that every qualifying conference is entitled to have their conference champion represented at the NCAA Championships. This mean's that if Cleveland State, George Mason, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, VMI and an upstart Fresno State all were in their own conference this past year they would have had many more qualifiers. (I believe none of these programs had a qualifier, but together that would be entitled to a minimum of 10 bids)

True, but insignificant in this argument.

 

It was in reply to my post you quoted where I proposed the California state schools form a new conference. You said that the conference would have no impact on qualifiers.

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crider55 - doesn't matter how many schools have teams if the top talent does not fill those rosters. If the best are not wrestling and the conference does not produce then they will not get any increase in qualifier allocations.

But if more opportunities are available closer to home there will be some stay that are going east. If your choice is move 900 miles (or more from San Diego) to go to OrSU (not accepted at Stanford or CP and not caring for Bakersfield) there isn't much advantage over anywhere else. Once you're on a plane it's a matter of a bit longer flight.

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ccrider and jstock

 

That is not entirely true. You are forgetting about the old East Region.

 

Remember that every qualifying conference is entitled to have their conference champion represented at the NCAA Championships. This mean's that if Cleveland State, George Mason, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, VMI and an upstart Fresno State all were in their own conference this past year they would have had many more qualifiers. (I believe none of these programs had a qualifier, but together that would be entitled to a minimum of 10 bids)

True, but insignificant in this argument.

 

It was in reply to my post you quoted where I proposed the California state schools form a new conference. You said that the conference would have no impact on qualifiers.

I believe we are going to an NCAA organized regional qualifying system, so no, a new CA conference won't increase qualifiers. Even if we aren't, where are the rest of the PAC going? Three is unviable. Four is too, but in a nod to history the NCAA allowed the B12, with no champs auto Q, to be a qualifier.

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"North Carolina is in the top 10 as far as high school participants are concerned. And Texas is 5th. Here are the 2013 numbers:

 

Thanks, hurricane.

 

2009 high school wrestling participants by state (source--themat.com article)

1. California 27,469; 2. Illinois 16,213; 3. New York 13,932; 4. Ohio 13,804; 5. Michigan 11,564;

6. North Carolina, 10,283; 7. Pennsylvania 9,900; 8. New Jersey 9,375; 9. Wisconsin 8,337; 10. Florida 8,332

 

2011 high school wrestling participants by state (source--themat.com article)

1. California 27,833; 2. Illinois 17,133; 3. New York 14,367; 4. Ohio 11,693; 5. Michigan 11,195;

6. North Carolina 10,724; 7. Pennsylvania 9,900; 8. New Jersey 9,718; 9. Georgia 8,490; 10. Florida 8,412

 

2013 high school wrestling participants (source--posted in this thread earlier)

1. California 27,634, 2. Illinois 16,385, 3. New York 13,668, 4. Ohio 11,581, 5. Texas 10,639

6. Michigan 10,374, 7. New Jersey 9,893, 8. Pennsylvania 9,740, 9. North Carolina 9,441, 10. Georgia 8,730

 

One suspects that Texas has had a big jump in participation over the last 15 years. Perhaps that is also true of Georgia, but no evidence to show one way or the other. Not pleased with Ohio's percentage drop.

 

California is, of course way up there. One state champ for every 1900+ wrestlers. It's been suggested that CA should have more than one division to increase exposure for it's best wrestlers.

 

Looks like Ohio and Michigan are rapidly depopulating (Ohio looks bad). Or it could just be statistical noise. Athletes counted differently, for example.

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""Looks like Ohio and Michigan are rapidly depopulating (Ohio looks bad). Or it could just be statistical noise. Athletes counted differently, for example."

 

I think this all comes from the NHFS. I'd like to see an in state breakdown of Ohio's areas over time. The numbers are out there (certified wrestlers on each team). I just don't know where. After a strong performance last year, this year Greater Cleveland was as weak at the state meet as it's been in a long time (maybe ever?--have to research that). Local explanations range from "fewer" to "softer". If this one year slice in time is the beginning of a trend it will show in fewer nationally ranked wrestlers, beside fewer state placers, and a few years from now, lesser D1 NQs and AAs. We'll see if there is a rebound. In the meantime seeing the number of certified wrestlers by grade would be instructive provided there is data to compare it to.

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LS: One big problem--St Eds was down. They've propped up the region for awhile. We need Eds to be strong.

 

True that. But, as I've pointed out many times, the performance over the years of Cleveland area wrestlers NOT from Eds makes an impressive total. Did you notice that besides Eds' tribulations, Solon and Maple were essentially nowhere to be found at the state meet, where they have been consistently in the top ten. A one year glitch or a trend?

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6 HS divisions OD? That seems ridiculous. How long has there been 6? What is the rationale?

 

I will answer that for you AP...It's the same as in Idaho...the thought behind supporters of multiple divisions is that more kids are state champs...more kids are state place winners....and it's better for the kids and programs that they can compete at their level (by school population size). I get that and in some ways agree. It obviously takes away from the competitive part of the sport. As Oregon has grown, instead of having more schools in 4 divisions as it used to be, they just expanded to more divisions.

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6 HS divisions OD? That seems ridiculous. How long has there been 6? What is the rationale?

 

I will answer that for you AP...It's the same as in Idaho...the thought behind supporters of multiple divisions is that more kids are state champs...more kids are state place winners....and it's better for the kids and programs that they can compete at their level (by school population size). I get that and in some ways agree. It obviously takes away from the competitive part of the sport. As Oregon has grown, instead of having more schools in 4 divisions as it used to be, they just expanded to more divisions.

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6 HS divisions OD? That seems ridiculous. How long has there been 6? What is the rationale?

 

I will answer that for you AP...It's the same as in Idaho...the thought behind supporters of multiple divisions is that more kids are state champs...more kids are state place winners....and it's better for the kids and programs that they can compete at their level (by school population size). I get that and in some ways agree. It obviously takes away from the competitive part of the sport. As Oregon has grown, instead of having more schools in 4 divisions as it used to be, they just expanded to more divisions.

It was driven mostly by some influential people concerned that their kids, involved in larger team sports (football) which really are more sensitive to school size, were not getting a "fair chance" at championships. The osaa is obstinate about treating all sports the same unless it is a logistic/participation problem. Many other sports suggested different divisions for FB only (and maybe basketball) and fewer for the rest. It wasn't unanimous though and they choose to treat everyone the same, inspite of the associated added costs, redistricting breaking up old rivalries, dilution of the meaning of state champ, etc. Medals for everyone!!! Yea!!! :roll:

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Bakersfield and Cal Poly should be stacked. The fact that they aren't is a little confusing. Where are the top CA guys going?

 

If they wrestle, they don't wrestle in CA. 3x champ Villareal is going the ASU. 2x Sweeney is going to Cornell? 3x champ Nevills is going to PSU. The 195 champ is going the Princeton.

 

The top tier UCs could add more wrestlers too, but the key is the CSUs. At one point in the prehistory, UCLA had wrestling and USC considered adding it. Imagine the duals.

I may not understand how this works, but I can't imagine that Cal States are too likely to add teams. Off the top of my head I can only think of 3 teams in California that make serious money off of football/basketball: Berkeley, UCLA, and USC. Fresno State and San Diego State have national name recognition. Otherwise, where could the money come from to support a D1 team? The Cal States don't need to boost male enrollment like D-III schools might.

 

Not that they will add teams, but that would revitalize the scene. Fresno, however, is "seriously considering" adding wrestling. That would be great because Fresno has the highest concentration of the best wrestlers in the state. Team finishes 1, 2, and 9 are all from the Fresno area.

 

Having multiple state tournaments couldn't hurt CA wrestlers with college wrestling exposure. Informed coaches and scouts know that the CA State tournament is the hardest state tournament to place at, but probably don't want to "risk" money on a CA 2x round-of-12 when they could get a "blue chip" FL 2x Champ.

I'd be interested in opinions on this. Does having one tournament hurt or help recruits/state strength?

 

That's just my assumption, but I don't have any data. This year, I had a senior end up a 2x top-12. If he had finished where we wanted in the 5-6th range, colleges were willing to take a look at him. Others states would call him a 2x state placer, 1x champ for how well he finished in our qualifier (which he had to qualify for and is already bigger than a lot of state tournaments). Now he's just another 2x qualifier.

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