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rickybobby

2014-15 NCAA Offseason Rankings

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Recently posted this on a couple of team boards and it generated a lot of good offseason talk, so I thought I would do the same here.

 

Just a couple of things to head off any obvious objections that I don't feel like explaining ad nauseam. These are "offseason" rankings, so they bring some different challenges than a process driven week-to-week ranking. Lots of new weights (projected) for guys and new faces with limited NCAA competition. So the rankings are a combination. For guys with extensive NCAA competition at the weights they are projected at this coming year it is more of a traditionally ranking. But a little different than just regurgitating last years NCAA results - it heavily weights those results while also taking in bracketing and overall career body of work. So if your one of those guys who doesn't care about rankings and just thinks that end of the year results are the only thing you want to talk about, don't click the link. You can wake up each morning, recheck your brackets and make sure that those results haven't changed until next November. Also, any new face or guy at a new weight is merely a projection of where I think that guy is at this time - my projection (these are MY rankings). Not a reflection of a ranking that they have earned. So guys I'm really high on, get a big boost here. For instance, I have Snyder ranked #1 at 197. That's because I think he is going to win NCAAs next year. No ranker is going to start him at #1, some will refuse to rank him until he has competed, others will slot him #8 to #12 as a safe way to start him off. Well, IMO #1 is about as arbitrary as not ranking him or sticking him #10. Does anybody really believe that is a true reflection of his ability??? So, these are a combination of rankings and projections. Some teams get hurt by it - they may have mostly returning guys or guys that have competed extensively at their projected weights where not a lot of guys graduated; and some teams may really benefit from it with some new guys and also guys returning in weight classes that have been depleted by graduation (i.e. tOSU). I don't think tOSU will ultimately finish that far ahead of everyone (team projections by ranking sans bonus points are included), but I think it does accurately show you how much wiggle room they are going to have as compared to the other top teams with the talent they have in their big 4 (Steiberx2, Jordan, Snyder).

 

It is located on a google doc (much easier than trying to post it on here), which can be found at the following link:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t-r6V5VtmD73PzuRrORwSg01R0iuK0ZeBmqb6o4M9fI/edit?usp=sharing

 

Enjoy! Looking forward to the discussion. Also, looking forward to some corrections regarding RSs and weight changes.

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Couple things that stood out to me.

 

1) No love for Darian Cruz! One of only four true freshmen to place, with good workout partners in his brother Randy, and your #2 at 133 Mason Beckman. That was a surprising one to me.

 

2) Sulzer all the way down at five. My personal opinion is that we see a Sulzer-Dieringer 165 finals next year, but if Bo Jordan and Dylan Ness both go 165 next year you just might be right.

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Couple things that stood out to me.

 

1) No love for Darian Cruz! One of only four true freshmen to place, with good workout partners in his brother Randy, and your #2 at 133 Mason Beckman. That was a surprising one to me.

 

2) Sulzer all the way down at five. My personal opinion is that we see a Sulzer-Dieringer 165 finals next year, but if Bo Jordan and Dylan Ness both go 165 next year you just might be right.

 

1) Cruz is projected to RS this year. Otherwise I would have had him 7th.

 

2) The more I look at it the more difficult it is to project the top at 165. Dieringer and Jordan are givens to me (maybe not to everyone, but to me). Ness is really difficult to rank - he can beat anyone, but also could easily lose in the quarters. Massa may be too high given his results so far, but needed the RS year (probably should have taken it year 1). Sulzer could be higher, but his lack of "dominance" has me comfortable with him at #5. Realbuto at #6 has shown inconsistency, but also an ability to beat most anyone. Moreno can be underwhelming but shows the ability to get it done when it counts. Moore is solid in the mode of Sulzer, but hasn't got it done when it counts.

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I didn't know Cruz is slated to RS this year. I agree that Dieringer seems to be a lock on paper to make the finals. Bo with a RS year under his belt definitely has AA potential. Ness has a ton of "J Jaggers" potential this year, as in he heads into NCAAs with 8-11 losses but somehow ends up on top of the podium. I haven't seen anything out of Massa yet that leads me to believe he should be 4th, but I'm hesitant to bet against the CKWC/UMich combo going forward. Realbuto really impressed me in that match against Dieringer. Appreciate you putting this out and give us something to talk about throughout the spring!

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Word is Waters stays at 125. LeVallee at 14 is too low. He did nothing but improve every match since he got thrown in the lineup as a true frosh in January, finishing by losing to Green in R12. With Houdashelt and Mizzou's room, Joey is gonna open some eyes next year. Btw, he lost 1-0 to Miller.

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133...3 returning AA...AA Hall moves up a weight to 133 and gets ranked 14th behind 10 guys who did not AA last year.

 

Hall is moving up a weight and has losses (albeit in freestyle at 132.25) to some of the non-AAs in front of him. He's 13th right now with Waters moving to 125.

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Word is Waters stays at 125. LeVallee at 14 is too low. He did nothing but improve every match since he got thrown in the lineup as a true frosh in January, finishing by losing to Green in R12. With Houdashelt and Mizzou's room, Joey is gonna open some eyes next year. Btw, he lost 1-0 to Miller.

 

Moved Waters to 125 where he slots in at #4. LeVallee is up to 12 - Butler moves to 174 and Gantt was up there because of his victory over Butler (after 2 previous losses) at NCAAs. Not moving him ahead of Perotti, but will agree that he has the potential to move up this year.

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Even though I am often very hard on MSU. I try to give them a little credit when it is deserved. I think you should consider their 133 pounder (Yenter) as at least honorable mention. The majority of his losses came to NCAA qualifiers. Looking at the year's results, he appeared to have improved throughout the year. At the BIG 10's, he had a 5-2 loss to Richards and a 2-0 loss to DiJulius. He also had wins over NCAA qualifiers Delafave, Pizzuto and NCAA All American Roth.

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On the mizzou bandwagon, Eblen 184 might deserve a mention here as well. He was having a good season before injury took him out of the lineup. Wins over Dechow ODU, and Julson NDSU as well as a few others. Had some bad losses as well though.

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On the mizzou bandwagon, Eblen 184 might deserve a mention here as well. He was having a good season before injury took him out of the lineup. Wins over Dechow ODU, and Julson NDSU as well as a few others. Had some bad losses as well though.

 

Eblen definitely deserves to be on there and I have added him. He was the next guy on my list. I originally was going to keep the HMs to 5, but since have expanded some weights up to 7. Just an oversight - he deserves to be on that list as much as any of the HMs and, honestly, at with the parity at this weight you can see him defeating most anyone on the list.

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Even though I am often very hard on MSU. I try to give them a little credit when it is deserved. I think you should consider their 133 pounder (Yenter) as at least honorable mention. The majority of his losses came to NCAA qualifiers. Looking at the year's results, he appeared to have improved throughout the year. At the BIG 10's, he had a 5-2 loss to Richards and a 2-0 loss to DiJulius. He also had wins over NCAA qualifiers Delafave, Pizzuto and NCAA All American Roth.

 

Although I'm sure he could climb into the rankings this year, I'm not ready to put him up there. He does have the win over Roth and deserves to be on there probably more than Delvecchio, but I'm giving Delvecchio the nod because he was a true Frosh last year. This weight cleared out so much that I'm pretty much taking a wait and see attitude. I had Hudson on there originally and then removed him with Brancale projecting up and Thielke projecting down. But you are right if I had Hudson on there, Yenter definitely should have been on ahead of him. At this weight I'm sticking with 15 plus the 5 HMs only for now.

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Very nice projection. I certainly hope that the projection stay true on NCAA championship. OSU still would have very tough competition from every team in top 10. I look forward to the upcoming exciting season.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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