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JohnnyThompsonnum1

Why I don't put much stock in high school results

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This is such earth shattering news that most people just cannot believe it. This is on par with Einstein when he came up with the theory of relativity.

 

JT1, would you say that if a wrestler finishes 4th at the Midlands that he could possibly place higher at nationals than the champion?

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This is a pretty silly thread. JT is merely stating the obvious. High School success is not a 100% predictor of college success. It is merely suggestive.

 

Having a great high school career may lead to a great college career. But there are so many factors involved that things change. A lessor kid in high school becomes a big time college wrestler. A great kid in high school doesn't pan out. Passions subside. Priorities change. People peak at different times.

 

Big deal.

 

Then why do a substantial amount of threads state year after year after year that it is not obvious, if it is indeed so obvious?

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This is such earth shattering news that most people just cannot believe it. This is on par with Einstein when he came up with the theory of relativity.

 

JT1, would you say that if a wrestler finishes 4th at the Midlands that he could possibly place higher at nationals than the champion?

 

Yes, and they have, yet we still take results from the past like that and blatantly ignore them. There have been cases in the past where individuals have been majored and came back to beat the person that majored them in the same tournament. Yet pose that as a plausibility for a future match and ole Lemonpie will call you an idiot.

 

Why is it that we ignore historical facts that point to probabilities being greater than 0, yet treat them like they're 0?

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This is such earth shattering news that most people just cannot believe it. This is on par with Einstein when he came up with the theory of relativity.

 

JT1, would you say that if a wrestler finishes 4th at the Midlands that he could possibly place higher at nationals than the champion?

 

Yes, and they have, yet we still take results from the past like that and blatantly ignore them. There have been cases in the past where individuals have been majored and came back to beat the person that majored them in the same tournament. Yet pose that as a plausibility for a future match and ole Lemonpie will call you an idiot.

 

Why is it that we ignore historical facts that point to probabilities being greater than 0, yet treat them like they're 0?

You are one of the smartest people on the face of the earth. It amazes me that you are not an astrophysicist or something of that nature. These things you come up with are so out of the box that I am almost speechless. I honestly cannot wait for your next profound topic "the wrestler with the best dressed coach doesn't always win" or "the wrestler who's coaches won the most NCAA titles doesn't always win."

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This is such earth shattering news that most people just cannot believe it. This is on par with Einstein when he came up with the theory of relativity.

 

JT1, would you say that if a wrestler finishes 4th at the Midlands that he could possibly place higher at nationals than the champion?

 

Yes, and they have, yet we still take results from the past like that and blatantly ignore them. There have been cases in the past where individuals have been majored and came back to beat the person that majored them in the same tournament. Yet pose that as a plausibility for a future match and ole Lemonpie will call you an idiot.

 

Why is it that we ignore historical facts that point to probabilities being greater than 0, yet treat them like they're 0?

You are one of the smartest people on the face of the earth. It amazes me that you are not an astrophysicist or something of that nature. These things you come up with are so out of the box that I am almost speechless. I honestly cannot wait for your next profound topic "the wrestler with the best dressed coach doesn't always win" or "the wrestler who's coaches won the most NCAA titles doesn't always win."

 

Yet you say this knowing damn good and well that the majority of themat.com posters feel that in order to be a great coach, you had to have been a great wrestler as well. Of course you can name examples like Pat Popolizio and Jason Borelli, neither of which were All Americans, both of which have had success as coaches. Let's ignore that though and continue to believe that if you weren't a standout, phenomenal wrestler yourself, there is no way you can be a successful coach.

 

"_____ ______ be a successful coach???? What did he do in college??" :)

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You can tell he's a fan of WWE because he doesn't have a grasp of unscripted sports.

 

I haven't watched an episode of television professional wrestling since 2008. I really haven't followed television professional wrestling since November of 1997. I did like it and watch it from 1988 to 1996, and I'm not the only one on the board that enjoyed it back in those days either. I'm just one of the few who isn't afraid to admit that I enjoyed it during that time because a few bigoted crybabies like you want to scapegoat it as the reason amateur wrestling isn't more popular.

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Just amazing the stuff you come up with. You play the lottery right, because you know there are people that win the lottery even though the odds are against them.

 

No it's more like the majority sees that the lottery is worth $300 million dollars and they get really excited about how much money it is, buying a ticket, telling everyone what they'll do with the money once they win it, while a few sit back and say, "uh, you actually probably won't win the money", and then when they don't win the money, they act shocked and dismiss the lottery as being disappointing to them.

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Going back to what I think was part of the point of this thread, it's always interested me how coaches and teams evaluate talent and potential in any sport.

 

Some people stand way above others and are usually not that difficult to pick out, but once you go below the cream of the crop, trying to sort through the coal to find the diamonds is a science that involves all kinds of parameters. This Sports Illustrated article described how an NBA scout evaluates mid to upper level talent among college players:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/ ... /index.htm

 

"An NBA scout doesn't earn his salary for pointing out the Michael Jordan or Allen Iverson in each draft. Such players have so much evident explosiveness, instinct, drive and other game-changing talents that even you and I could identify them. Rather, a club's player-personnel staff spends most of its time sorting through the compost heap of less obvious candidates for the draft, which on June 27 is expected to feature more college nonseniors than ever before and an unprecedented six high schoolers. Finch invited me into that world of nuanced observations, finely drawn distinctions and almost imperceptible clues to a player's potential. It's a place in which a scout who fails to factor in the hand check is like an economist who neglects to adjust for inflation, and in which He's good! is a sorry basis for a decision."

 

It would be interesting if a similar process were used to evaluate high school wrestling talent. Could it perhaps pick out the next multi-time Div. I NCAA AA who never won a state title in hs? (e.g. Stephen Neal, Josh Koscheck)

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And then there are those at the very top of the heap, who have all the accolades, titles, and records, but may turn out very differently. Those who look like they will be the next Cael Sanderson, but fizzle out completely. Or perhaps they have an respectable career, but don't nearly match up to others' expectations of them, like a David Craig. Intangibles seem to play a role here.

 

Remember how NFL teams were once trying to decide between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf? And how differently each turned out?

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/us/ma ... ibles.html

 

Check out the video in the article if you have time. It shows how the decision for the Colts' office really came down to the wire!

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And then there are those at the very top of the heap, who have all the accolades, titles, and records, but may turn out very differently. Those who look like they will be the next Cael Sanderson, but fizzle out completely. Or perhaps they have an respectable career, but don't nearly match up to others' expectations of them, like a David Craig. Intangibles seem to play a role here.

 

Remember how NFL teams were once trying to decide between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf? And how differently each turned out?

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/us/ma ... ibles.html

 

Check out the video in the article if you have time. It shows how the decision for the Colts' office really came down to the wire!

 

But what happens most of the time: Diamonds shine bright, or turds shine bright?

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You guys are looking at it from a coaching perspective, and if I were a collegiate coach, like I am not, like most of us are not, I'd be looking at it from a coaching perspective as well. I'm talking from a fan perspective, because I'm not a collegiate coach, as most of us on here are not, I am a fan, which most of us are.

 

With that said, as a coach, there would be times when I'd consider a two time state champion that may have had a couple of third place finishes, over a four time state champion. There are times when I'd look at senior nationals, Fargo and other major tournaments and I might pick a kid who was 1st, 4th, 2nd, 3rd over a kid that was 1st-1st-1st-1st at them. Why? Because his chances of walking over everybody and never having to deal with adversity in college are slim to none. He's going to suffer some bumps along the way, and as a coach I'd want to have the confidence that he can deal with a loss, and come back through the consolations to earn valuable points for my team. I've seen kids that are so used to always winning and always getting first place in high school, that when they go to college and get whipped once, they are in so much heartache and disbelief that they end up going 0-2 at an open, when they could've came back and placed. Now does that always happen? No, but it also doesn't never happen either.

 

My main point in posting this is that so many people put so much stock into these kids and hype the hell out of them as they're coming into college. The expectations they set for them are unrealistic and the judgments they receive for not living up to these expectations as redshirt or even true freshmen are beyond harsh. Then the kids they expected something out of, but not near as much out of, that go above and beyond expectation, they get ignored too because their aren't any bragging rights attached to them. No one was predicting such and such that took 5th at Fargo and 4th at senior nationals to do as well as he did. No one can pat themselves on the back and say, "told ya so".

 

If they ever remake the 1989 version of "Parenthood" I can see plenty of people who'd be picture perfect for the part of Lou.

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You guys are looking at it from a coaching perspective, and if I were a collegiate coach, like I am not, like most of us are not, I'd be looking at it from a coaching perspective as well. I'm talking from a fan perspective, because I'm not a collegiate coach, as most of us on here are not, I am a fan, which most of us are.

 

With that said, as a coach, there would be times when I'd consider a two time state champion that may have had a couple of third place finishes, over a four time state champion. There are times when I'd look at senior nationals, Fargo and other major tournaments and I might pick a kid who was 1st, 4th, 2nd, 3rd over a kid that was 1st-1st-1st-1st at them. Why? Because his chances of walking over everybody and never having to deal with adversity in college are slim to none. He's going to suffer some bumps along the way, and as a coach I'd want to have the confidence that he can deal with a loss, and come back through the consolations to earn valuable points for my team. I've seen kids that are so used to always winning and always getting first place in high school, that when they go to college and get whipped once, they are in so much heartache and disbelief that they end up going 0-2 at an open, when they could've came back and placed. Now does that always happen? No, but it also doesn't never happen either.

 

My main point in posting this is that so many people put so much stock into these kids and hype the hell out of them as they're coming into college. The expectations they set for them are unrealistic and the judgments they receive for not living up to these expectations as redshirt or even true freshmen are beyond harsh. Then the kids they expected something out of, but not near as much out of, that go above and beyond expectation, they get ignored too because their aren't any bragging rights attached to them. No one was predicting such and such that took 5th at Fargo and 4th at senior nationals to do as well as he did. No one can pat themselves on the back and say, "told ya so".

 

If they ever remake the 1989 version of "Parenthood" I can see plenty of people who'd be picture perfect for the part of Lou.

Soooo what you are saying is fans shouldn't get excited when they see their team's recruits win big national level tournaments....is that right? Fans shouldn't get excited either when their current college guys do well at Vegas, Midlands or the Southern Scuffle either since there is a possibility that a wrestler that finishes lower will outplace them at nationals....is this right?

 

If you don't want to read about fans getting excited about their teams you might not want to peruse a messageboard. Without fans being excited about their teams and the individuals there really wouldn't be much to talk about here.

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You guys are looking at it from a coaching perspective, and if I were a collegiate coach, like I am not, like most of us are not, I'd be looking at it from a coaching perspective as well. I'm talking from a fan perspective, because I'm not a collegiate coach, as most of us on here are not, I am a fan, which most of us are.

 

With that said, as a coach, there would be times when I'd consider a two time state champion that may have had a couple of third place finishes, over a four time state champion. There are times when I'd look at senior nationals, Fargo and other major tournaments and I might pick a kid who was 1st, 4th, 2nd, 3rd over a kid that was 1st-1st-1st-1st at them. Why? Because his chances of walking over everybody and never having to deal with adversity in college are slim to none. He's going to suffer some bumps along the way, and as a coach I'd want to have the confidence that he can deal with a loss, and come back through the consolations to earn valuable points for my team. I've seen kids that are so used to always winning and always getting first place in high school, that when they go to college and get whipped once, they are in so much heartache and disbelief that they end up going 0-2 at an open, when they could've came back and placed. Now does that always happen? No, but it also doesn't never happen either.

 

My main point in posting this is that so many people put so much stock into these kids and hype the hell out of them as they're coming into college. The expectations they set for them are unrealistic and the judgments they receive for not living up to these expectations as redshirt or even true freshmen are beyond harsh. Then the kids they expected something out of, but not near as much out of, that go above and beyond expectation, they get ignored too because their aren't any bragging rights attached to them. No one was predicting such and such that took 5th at Fargo and 4th at senior nationals to do as well as he did. No one can pat themselves on the back and say, "told ya so".

 

If they ever remake the 1989 version of "Parenthood" I can see plenty of people who'd be picture perfect for the part of Lou.

Soooo what you are saying is fans shouldn't get excited when they see their team's recruits win big national level tournaments....is that right? Fans shouldn't get excited either when their current college guys do well at Vegas, Midlands or the Southern Scuffle either since there is a possibility that a wrestler that finishes lower will outplace them at nationals....is this right?

 

If you don't want to read about fans getting excited about their teams you might not want to peruse a messageboard. Without fans being excited about their teams and the individuals there really wouldn't be much to talk about here.

 

Is that what I said? Or did I say more so it's cool to get so exited about them, but sort of b.s. the way they automatically write them off if they don't live up to expectations as freshmen, even if they do end up having success later on in their career? How many "he never did anything in college" stories do we have about people BEFORE they graduate that end up succeeding as seniors? Ben Cherrington, Colt Sponseller, ect, the list isn't at 0.

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Is that what I said?

Yes that is what you said!

 

Or did I say more so it's cool to get so exited about them, but sort of b.s. the way they automatically write them off if they don't live up to expectations as freshmen, even if they do end up having success later on in their career?

No you were pretty clear that you were not happy when fans get excited when their recruits win a big high school tournament.

This is what you said in the first sentence

One thing that has always puzzled me is the infatuation that so many fans have with high school results

 

How many "he never did anything in college" stories do we have about people BEFORE they graduate that end up succeeding as seniors? Ben Cherrington, Colt Sponseller, ect, the list isn't at 0.

 

So you are getting upset with fans that are disappointed with their team's performances.... For some odd reason i don't see this changing any time soon. Here is the harsh reality, fans will get excited, fans will get disappointed, fans will not stop doing either of those things. That is why they are fans of their teams, if they didn't have anything to get excited for then there would be no use being a fan.

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Fans (short for fanatics), no matter the sport, get excited for positive things and blow things out of proportion; and get down on their team/individuals when things go south (while also blowing things out of proportion). This will never change and if you haven't figured that out by now, you are even denser than I originally thought.

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Fans (short for fanatics), no matter the sport, get excited for positive things and blow things out of proportion; and get down on their team/individuals when things go south (while also blowing things out of proportion). This will never change and if you haven't figured that out by now, you are even denser than I originally thought.

 

Did Clint Howard use you as inspiration for his role?

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