Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
MA_Wrestler

World championships: Discussion, prediction, preview thread

Recommended Posts

With the World Championships just a couple weeks away I wanted to start a thread to get some discussion going and hopefully help the excitement for the tournament. I know I am extremely excited for it, I love the coverage it gets now, the live stream is great and if the times make it tough to watch the matches are usually available online shortly after.

 

So, feel free to throw out thoughts, predictions, observations or any other topic. Themat.com is doing daily previews and a preliminary entry list is on theopenmat.com.

 

I'm going to do my own little breakdown with my thoughts on our team, weight by weight, the team race and the field at each weight when I have a little more time. Hope to see some good discussion here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm so excited for Metcalf.   He was written off in the past couple years after disappointing efforts at worlds and internationally in general.  But after the weight was lowered and the rules changed in favor of Metcalf's style, Brent has been revitalized.   I would love to see nothing more than for him to bring home a medal (a medal of any color, so long as it's in the top 3).  Can he win gold?  Extremely unlikely but I can't wait to see it.   

 

Kennedy looks real tough and I can see him finishing in the top 5.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it just me, or do I see a possible world championship team?

 

Ramos: Can't see him going one and out, but call me biased - I could see him slipping into the medal rounds. Realistically, I don't think he'll make the finals.. yet. This is his warm up year. We saw Coleman Scott get a bronze at the Olympics his first year on the team - why can't Ramos?

 

Kennedy: If he keeps up the pace he's had this year, I don't see him not getting a medal, plain and simple. 

 

Metcalf: Like everyone's been pointing out, the latest set of rule changes are heavily in his favor. He's the epitome of Iowa style wrestling, which, on the international level, is pretty akin to USA Style. He can wear and tear his way to the podium.

 

Marable: Lost a 1-0 decision to the current #1. Hopefully all of the co-op training camps have been getting him to roll with the likes of Burroughs, Green, Metcalf, etc - guys that will get his offense going. Once he starts creating opportunities, he'll be a freight train.

 

Burroughs: Let's keep 'em coming. I wanna see him break John Smith's record of 6 in a row. Last year, I watched him win Gold during my class.. I'd like to make that a tradition these next couple years.

 

Ruth: Right now, all that's keeping him from being the consensus #1 is international experience. Personally, I wanna see him win Gold.. I got a bet with a guy on the club team here at PSU. I don't think a bronze is out of the question.

 

Varner: STACKED weight class. Let's hope we see the US Open Varner. 

 

Dlagnev: Man, he's always right there in the top 5, and this looks like a year he can snag a medal.

 

Overall, I see 1 definite medal (Burroughs), 4 likely's (Kennedy, Marable, Ruth, Varner), 2 possibly's (Metcalf, Dlagnev), and only 1 reach (Ramos). If our other age-group Men's FS teams' success is any indication, with the perfect storm, we could be #1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Team USA overview:

 

This summer has seen great results for our age group freestyle teams. We dominated the University World's, took 2nd with 6 medals at juniors and brought home 3 golds and a silver in cadets. We may be a little spoiled at this point, but I think we have good reason to be optimistic. Clearly, being the competitive natured country we are, winning the team title is the goal every year, but this year is probably our best chance in a long long time. I don't by any means think we are the favorites. We are going to have our work cut out for us if we are going to beat Iran or Russia, but none the less this is our best shot in a while.

 

When you look at our team, we clearly have a nice mix of youth and experience. We have 4 veterans who have been on multiple teams. This is a nice change compared to a stretch of years where it seemed like we had new member after new member. Dlagnev is on his 5th team in the last 6 years, Varner on his 4th in the last 6, Burroughs on his 4th straight and Metcalf on his 3rd team in 5 years. Then with our 4 first timers we have 2 guys who have been on the Senior Circuit for several years in Kennedy and Marable plus the 2 true rookies fresh out of college in Ramos and Ruth.

 

As I said already, it will take a monster team performance to upset Russia and Iran. Realistically it will probably take 6 medals with a couple being gold to win a team title. That will be a tall order for sure, but on the positive side for us, I really feel like all 8 of our guys have a legit shot to medal. I'm certainly not saying all 8 will medal, but given recent or past results or just raw talent and ability, a medal from any one of these guys would not shock me. That is very different from years past. Nothing against some of our guys that we've sent in recent years as I have tremendous respect for anyone who makes a world team, but I would have been shocked if guys like Felix, the Paulsons, Bergman, Gavin, Hrovat, Sigman or a few others would have brought home a medal. I can't say that about anyone on our team.

 

My personal goal/hope for the team is to bring home 4 medals and maybe have 1 or 2 more in the medal match. Raising the expectation bar even higher I'm hoping for someone not named Jordan Burroughs to bring home gold (as well as Burroughs of course). I'm a huge Metcalf fan so I'm hoping it's him, but multiple champs would be great! Obviously as a bias American what I really want is for the senior team to do what the junior team did and have everyone be extremely competitive while bring home 6 medals and maybe steal the team title, but that may be asking too much. 4 medals and 2 champs is attainable.

 

Iran and Russia:

 

Iran snapped the Russian streak of team titles at the World championships last year. Russia had an unheard of level of dominance in '07 (6 gold, 1 bronze in 7 weights) and followed it up with a Similiar level of dominance in 08, 09, 10. They continued winning team title in 11 and 12 but without nearly the same level of dominance. Iran seemed to have a few down years for a while, even being surpassed by Azerbijian as the closest competition for Russia, but they came back strong recently. They had good results at the worlds in 11, a disappointing Olympics, but broke thru with a total team effort to take the title last year.

 

Last year Russia seemed to send a brand new team to start a new cycle. The previous cycle had many of the same wrestlers, while last year they sent 6 first timers along with the veteran anchor in Gatsalov. This year, a few familiar faces return in guys like 2x world champs Lebedev and Tsargush. They have their living legend and reigning champ Gatsalov. They have the stud who's name comes up in the best p4p discussion despite not having a world or Olympic medal to his name in Gadisov, and they have the next big thing in the young phenom Sadulaev. Bogomev had to go thru the defending champ to make the team at 61, Ramonov went thru the bronze medalist and world #1 to make the team, and their entry at 70 is ranked high as well. All in all, this is a team, like ours, with a combination of youth and experience. Unfortunate for us, they are just a lot better (on paper anyway). I'm sure they were not happy with a second place finish last year and will be wrestling with an extra chip on their shoulder to get back on top.

 

Iran was a team loaded with familiar names last year. I could be mistaken but I'm pretty sure 6 of their 7 had been to the worlds or Olympics before. This year a few familiar names like Taghavi, Ghasemi and Lashgari are out. Familiar faces like Rahimi, Esampiour (sp?) and Yazdani return. Like Russia they have tremendous depth. The new faces in the lineup are all medal threats based on other FILA results this year. They have 3 or 4 legitimate gold medal threats, they have won the last 3 World Cup's and I doubt they are ready to give the crown back to Russia just yet.

 

Russia, Iran and USA were the top dogs at juniors and I expect them to be that way for the seniors. My pick would be for them to finish in that order, but obviously my hope is for a monsterous effort by USA and a few letdowns for the top two and our first title since '95. Here's hoping!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early predictions: Khinegashvilli (I think it's a crap shoot between him, Lebedev and Rahimi)

Aliyev

Romanov (no I would not be surprised if Metcalf won)

Hosseinkhani

Burroughs

Sadullaev (Ruth still needs to clean up his wrestling a bit IMO)

Yazdani (kind of hoping for Gadisov though)

Gatsalov

 

 

 

74 aside all weights are pretty competitive IMO. Even Yazdani isn't a prohibitive favorite IMO. Hoping for an epic Burroughs/Tsargush final but not sure how the Russian will look.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finishing up on team race thoughts:

 

Azerbijian, pretty clearly the world #2 during the 09-12 cycle. They won at least 1 medal at every weight but heavy, had 3 different world or Olympic champs, won 3 Olympic medals and 2 golds. Last year was a down year, with no Asgarov and Sharifov & Hasanov outgrowing their weights. Only Gayzumov brought home a medal for them last year. However, if you go by the rankings and some results from this year they could be reloaded enough to knock the US out of the third spot. They are the favorite at 61 with Aliyev, have a couple guys ranked highly at 70, 65 just took 2nd at Golden Grand Prix (blew 6-0 lead against Metcalf) plus Hasanov now at 74 and their all time great still looking great at 96 fresh off a dominating win over Varner. I expect a much better showing this year than last, no lower than 4th and possibly higher.

 

Georgia could have something to say about my top 4 teams. They only came away with 1 medal last year but out 5 guys in medal matches. They also return an Olympic runner up who should be a real gold medal threat at 57 in Khinegasvilli.

 

Ukraine had a great tournament last year, wing a gold, silver and bronze. They are especially tough in the last 3 weights and are one of the better teams out there, always capable of bringing home a few medals. India has been one of the most improved wrestling countries in recent years, winning medals with 4 or 5 different wrestlers. Japan can usually be counted on, particularly in the lower weights. Turkey is almost always a top 5 or 6 team at the works and they have a few medal threats again. Then there's Cuba, one year they seem to have a medal threat in every weight, the next they seem to disappear. They had 2 finalists last year, Lopez and Salas, with Lopez moving to 74. It doesn't look like they have 8 entries but whoever they send will be tough. Belarus has a few top guys as well.

 

Of course there are many more great wrestlers on many countries that I didn't mention. The ones I mentioned are the teams that I think will fill out the top 5 and top 10. Just my opinion of course, apologize in advance fir any names I misspelled.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

57KG, USA: Ever since Cejudo made back-to-back teams in '07 & '08 we have had a revolving door at the lowest weight. Despite the turnover rate we have had a little success here with Simmons and Escobedo making the bronze medal bout and Blanc being a last second mistake in the quarters from a top 5 finish himself. This years entry, Tony Ramos definitely brings the most star power we've had at the weight since Cejudo. What kind of success that translates to remains to be seen.

 

If I were ranking all 8 of our guys from most likely to least likely to medal, I would have Ramos as our longest shot. That said, a medal from him wouldn't shock me either. He had a great couple months, winning a national title in college and quickly transitioning to the senior level to seemingly come out of nowhere to make the team. He has the best training situation a lower weight could ask for with the Brands bros, the University world and junior world teamers at his weight, not to mention Metcalf and the rest of the Hawkeye club boys. He has the confidence, intensity, and drive to win. Will that be enough to make up for the lack of experience? My guess is not just yet, but I hope I'm wrong! A good draw would certainly go a long way.

 

The field: I think this is a 3 horse race between reigning champ Rahimi from Iran, 2x champ Lebedev of Russia (who has a win over Rahimi last March at the World Cup) and 2012 Olympic silver medalist Khinesgashvili of Georgia. Rahimi is the old man of the bunch, but doesn't seem to be losing a step, his match with Lebedev was razor thin and may be what he needed to get back on top. Lebedev may have an extra chip on his shoulder after missing out on his shot at Olympic gold. The Georgian has won Euro's, Golden Grand Prix and defeated the Yargin champ. I don't know who to pick here, I think I would just pick a name out of a hat and call it my prediction. Any of the 3 winning wouldn't surprise me, someone other than one of the 3 would.

 

Others medal threats would include Olympic bronze medalist and '09 world champ Yang from North Korea, last years bronze medalist Pekur from Turkey and last years 5th place finisher from Kazakstan who is having a good year according to themat.com preview. Last years silver medalist Kumar from India is not on the entry list. Azerbijian has a couple wrestlers ranked pretty high but the entry list shows someone else, so it may be safe to assume whoever they are sending will be competitive. Japan usually has pretty good lower weights too. Hopefully Ramos is among the medal threats too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

57KG, USA: Ever since Cejudo made back-to-back teams in '07 & '08 we have had a revolving door at the lowest weight. Despite the turnover rate we have had a little success here with Simmons and Escobedo making the bronze medal bout and Blanc being a last second mistake in the quarters from a top 5 finish himself. This years entry, Tony Ramos definitely brings the most star power we've had at the weight since Cejudo. What kind of success that translates to remains to be seen.

 

If I were ranking all 8 of our guys from most likely to least likely to medal, I would have Ramos as our longest shot. That said, a medal from him wouldn't shock me either. He had a great couple months, winning a national title in college and quickly transitioning to the senior level to seemingly come out of nowhere to make the team. He has the best training situation a lower weight could ask for with the Brands bros, the University world and junior world teamers at his weight, not to mention Metcalf and the rest of the Hawkeye club boys. He has the confidence, intensity, and drive to win. Will that be enough to make up for the lack of experience? My guess is not just yet, but I hope I'm wrong! A good draw would certainly go a long way.

 

The field: I think this is a 3 horse race between reigning champ Rahimi from Iran, 2x champ Lebedev of Russia (who has a win over Rahimi last March at the World Cup) and 2012 Olympic silver medalist Khinesgashvili of Georgia. Rahimi is the old man of the bunch, but doesn't seem to be losing a step, his match with Lebedev was razor thin and may be what he needed to get back on top. Lebedev may have an extra chip on his shoulder after missing out on his shot at Olympic gold. The Georgian has won Euro's, Golden Grand Prix and defeated the Yargin champ. I don't know who to pick here, I think I would just pick a name out of a hat and call it my prediction. Any of the 3 winning wouldn't surprise me, someone other than one of the 3 would.

 

Others medal threats would include Olympic bronze medalist and '09 world champ Yang from North Korea, last years bronze medalist Pekur from Turkey and last years 5th place finisher from Kazakstan who is having a good year according to themat.com preview. Last years silver medalist Kumar from India is not on the entry list. Azerbijian has a couple wrestlers ranked pretty high but the entry list shows someone else, so it may be safe to assume whoever they are sending will be competitive. Japan usually has pretty good lower weights too. Hopefully Ramos is among the medal threats too!

 

 

I read that India is sending Kumar and Dutt to the Asian games rather than the World Championships.

 

The Kaz. you mentioned is Kaliev, who won Asian Wreslting championships and looked good doing so. Very physically strong. 

 

Aze is apparently sending Magomedov, who was 3rd at Baku (beat Megaludis for Bronze). Their higher ranked wrestler, Gvarzatilov, is not being sent (allegedly). I am not sure if they competed h2h but Gvarzatilov was 2nd in Baku (beat Megaludis in SF bout). 

Edited by rlw028

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

India might figure Kumar will have the guys at the Asian Games for lunch.

 

One would think, although Iran is very deep at 65kg and 74kg (depending which weight he competes). I'm not sure if they automatically send their #2 or what.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

61KG, USA: Jimmy Kennedy has been wrestling on the Senior Circuit for a few years now but has really had a breakout year. Maybe he will be this years Coleman Scott? It took Scott a few years after graduation to make it happen at this level, maybe it's Kennedy's turn. He has a good amount of international experience, wrestling in several tournaments over seas. He won a big tournament and has placed at others, he looks great against pretty tough domestic competition and should be considered a real medal threat.

 

Kennedy never won a national title in college, but neither did some of our all time greats like Zeke Jones or Kevin Jackson. Some guys don't reach the peak of their talent until later on, some guys are better suited for freestyle, sometimes it's a combination of both. Whatever the case is, Kennedy seems to be extra motivated at this level. It's also cool to see a pair of Illinois high school wrestlers on the senior team after many years of the state having such a great USA Wrestling program at the cadet and junior level, dominating the age group state duals and Fargo. Hopefully one of the two Illinois boys bring home a medal, and I think Kennedy has a good shot.

 

The field: I can't say I am overly familiar with many of the wrestlers at this weight. I do find it unbelievable that this is no longer an Olympic weight. This is the weight John Smith and Tom Brands won their medals at. More recently international starts like Kudukhov or Asgarov, and now this weight won't be at the Olympics, unreal. I wonder if the fact that it is no longer an Olympic weight will have much of an impact on the field? Will a lot of the top guys try to go up or down in hopes of Olympic glory?

 

Aliyev from Azerbijian has been the dominant wrestler in the weight this year. If I'm not mistake he has won Yargin, Euro's and Golden Grand Prix. He has to be the favorite, I would have a hard time not picking him. I'm disappointed at the apparent regression of last years champ from Russia, Goygarev (I probably spelled it wrong but I know who I mean!). He was so fun to watch last year, I remember thinking he might be the next Russian superstar. He seems to have gone backwards, and I remember one poster showing quotes from Russian coaches about his lack of commitment and discipline.

 

The Russian champ Bogomev will be tough here. I believe Kennedy has beaten him, but I still expect the Russian to do well. The Iranian, who's name I know I will misspell, won bronze last year and is fun to watch (at least his matches with Humphrey always were). Dubov of Bulgaria was the runner up last year and should be in the mix. Mongolia, Ukraine and Kazakstan all have wrestlers ranked high as well.

Edited by MA_Wrestler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kennedy is 1-3 vs Bogomev I think but won the last one.

 

The Iranian Esmailpour beat Aliyev at worlds last year in a barn burner. I see them as co-favorites.

 

Great previews btw.

 

Regarding Iran's 74 for Asian games I've heard it's last years world silver medallist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, and thanks for the additional info. I'm basically doing these off memory with a quick glance at the entry list to see what names I recognize, any additional info from anyone is greatly appreciated. Just having a little fun and trying to get more discussion going

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kennedy is 1-3 vs Bogomev I think but won the last one.

 

The Iranian Esmailpour beat Aliyev at worlds last year in a barn burner. I see them as co-favorites.

 

Great previews btw.

 

Regarding Iran's 74 for Asian games I've heard it's last years world silver medallist.

 

I guess they do send their #2s, since they are sending Afzali Paemami at 74kg. Aliyev beat Esmailpour at Baku in 2012, Esmailpour beat him in a barnburner at worlds 2013. I agree, as them as co-favorites. I'm leaning towards Esmailpour, personally, but wouldn't be shocked if Aliyev won the weight, especially the way he dismantled the Euro field (including a destruction of 2013 WC Goygereyev).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here is Iran team for both tournaments

 

Rahimi (57), Esmaeilpour (61), Hosseinkhani (70) and Yazdani (97) for both competitions

 

65, A. Mohammadi WCH, nobody AG

74, Afzali WCH, Akbari AG

86, M.H. Mohammadian WCH, Jokar AG

125, Ghasemi WCH, Hadi AG

 

Iran could enter maximum of 7 wrestlers per style for the Asian Games, they decided to skip 65kg.

 

btw Sushil Kumar won't wrestle even at the Asian Games ! 

 

http://www.firstpost.com/sports/olympic-medallist-sushil-kumar-opts-out-of-asian-games-may-miss-worlds-1663325.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right.  For example, is the Caucasus in Eastern Europe or the Near East?

updated the blog post with a chart for each region (more or less) and the breakdown by country. 

 

i kept the federations together but split them in twain. had to make a few judgement calls, and usually picked culture over geography, so greece and finalnd are in the west but the czech republic are in the east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

updated the blog post with a chart for each region (more or less) and the breakdown by country. 

 

i kept the federations together but split them in twain. had to make a few judgement calls, and usually picked culture over geography, so greece and finalnd are in the west but the czech republic are in the east.

Macedonia has a sizable team - freestyle only.  Albania is also freestyle only.  Maybe it shouldn't be surprising, but I wasn't aware of the freestyle focus there (Serbia and Croatia are heavily oriented toward Greco).

 

It's also a little surprising that so few teams are full.  It's easier to see this with the visuals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...