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BAC

Pull Zain's shirt?

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I can't help wondering if, and when, it'd make sense for PSU to pull Zain Retherford's redshirt and make a run at another title.

 

I've been in total agreement with the decision to redshirt Nico and Zain, but I have to admit, PSU is better than I thought they'd be.  I'd say an AA is likely at 133, 174, 197 and HWT.  On top of that, there's a legitmate shot at AA at 125 (Conaway is right on the cusp) and 157 (if D Alton gets healthy enough), with point scorers (and *maybe* outside chance at AA) at 149 (I'm not sold on Beitz, but he's ranked 14th in a weight that is wide open) and 184 (McCutcheon has been competitive).  That leaves 141 and 165, where Moss and Hammond have been decent but not top 20 quality.  But, if you were to sub in Zain at 141, that makes a big difference. 

 

On the other side of the ledger, none of the frontrunners have looked like world-beaters lately.  I thought tOSU would run away with it this year, and they still might, but they have been injury-plagued.  Iowa is well-balanced but lacks much bonus point potential, and I think their "rope-a-dope until Midlands" strategy puts them behind.  For me, that leaves Minnesota as the current front-runner, very deep and seasoned, but even they have a few holes and the Dardanes brothers are unpredictable. 

 

But I haven't added up the numbers either.  Would PSU have enough firepower to make a run at a title with Zain in the lineup?  Would Cael do it if he thought they had a shot?  Did Zain even certify at 141?

 

 

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I don't think the reward outweighs the risk.  Stieber, Port, Carter and Dardanes are there.  As good as Retherford is he could still easily take 5th.  If he was a lock for the finals it may very well be worth it. However, I think they would need a good 20 pts from him to get them into the mix.  I am not sold that would happen.  Now if they pulled Nico and Nolf(or a healthy D. Alton goes 157) then I could see it being worth it, especially if they found a way to fit Nickall into the lineup.

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Many teams reload.  I don't see this as a forfeit.  Redshirting Nico makes sense.  Conaway has worked very hard and they wanted to give him a shot.  Mega can come back after Delgado and maybe even Garrett graduate depending on an Oly-redshirt.  Retherford can benefit similarly by Stieber, Port and Carter all graduating after this year.  Nolf, Nickall and Nevills are all at spots where the improvement they will gain this year helps them more for the next four years than the questionable benefit the team would gain this year.

 

In the end, even with them all in the line-up this would have been the least likely Championship team they have had in the last 5 years.  Better to reload for 4 more years than to throw everything they can at this year possibly throwing a wrench into their future plans.

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Excellent points by BAC and counter by MSU158.  Cael has been on record saying that the first priority is to put the best team out there first, and think big picture second.  This season brings a lot of factors into the mix.  tOSU is not as dominating as we first thought, particularly with their injuries.  Iowa losing Burak and not showing the promise they had hoped in the middle weights is a factor.  OSU doesn't seem to be strong as first thought.  Which paves the way for an opportunity that was not expected in the beginning of the season for the PSU.  Minnesota looks like the team to beat, but as I mentioned in an earlier post PSU's tougher weights match up with Minnie's tougher weights, and with a little luck PSU wins those matchups against Minnie, particularly the marquee matchups at 125 (conaway/brancale), 133 (gulibon/c.dardanes, 174 (brown/storley), 197 (mcintosh/schiller) and 285 (lawson/kroells).  Possibly you have Dylan pulling an upset at 157 (no telling what kind of Dylan is going to show up on the mat in 2015), McClutchen can possibly beat Pfarr @ 184, and Hammond can possibly beat Wanzek at 165.  The PSU/Minnie dual will be very intersting.

 

 

On another note, does anyone think Marstellar beats Nolf at 157?  I'd like to see that matchup at an open tournament sometime this season (Scuffle?)

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Nolf is scary, but its hard to think about pulling his shirt when Alton is just about to step back in for his RS Senior season.  Supposedly he was 50-50 on whether he wrestled this past weekend.  Sounds like he'll be back within the next month, and maybe in time for the Maryland opener. 

 

And I can't imagine pulling Nico's shirt when Conaway's wrestling at or near AA-level.  Plus it works out pretty nice to have Conaway use his last 2 years of eligibility (if Nico takes an Olympic shirt), and then Nico steps back in for '16-17. 

 

Zain is a huge point swing, though.  And his redshirt, while understandable, never made the same obvious sense from a lineup-juggling standpoint as did, say, Nico's redshirt.

 

MSU is probably right that it wouldn't be enough to make a difference, but one would think that, at some point, there could be a combination of overperforming by PSU and injuries/underperforming by the Iowas, Minnys and tOSUs of the world, that Cael would have to think about it real hard. 

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Trust me, not being a PSU fan I would rather them use up eligibility this year trying to make a run for it.  However the current redshirting scenario makes better sense.  141 is the only weight that PSU isn't filling with a comparable wrestler.

 

I am much more scared of:

 

125:Conaway and Megaludis for the next two seasons

133:Gulibon for the next 2 seasons

141:Retherford the next 3 seasons

149:Joseph the next 4 seasons

157:Nolf the next 4 seasons

165:Hammond the next 3 years

174:Nickall the next 4 years

184:McCutcheon the next 3 years

197:Stout the next 4 years

285:Nevills the next 4 years

 

And all of that is without another big name coming in and changing it up!

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MSU158 makes good points for RSing Zain.  Stieber, Port and Carter will be gone next season clearing a path for Zain.  Megaludis taking a RS and an ORS could be perfect with Garrett and Delgado gone, maxing Conaway's two remaining seasons, and giving someone like Spencer Lee a RS season behind a seasoned Olympian like Megaludis (okay, that's a perfect world scenario, but . . . ) : )

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Actually two things wrong with my post anyway.  Even if Mega takes an Oly RS next season Spencer is only a Soph.  Secondly, I suspect that Spencer will grow like Nolf or DT and won't be anywhere near 125.  He's competing at 120 this year as a soph.  I need to visit the Iowa board more often.  I'm out of the loop!

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And I can't imagine pulling Nico's shirt when Conaway's wrestling at or near AA-level.  Plus it works out pretty nice to have Conaway use his last 2 years of eligibility (if Nico takes an Olympic shirt), and then Nico steps back in for '16-17. 

 

What makes you think he is wrestling at that level? I saw his match against a true freshman earlier in the season and he did not look like AA material in that match.

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Not worth creating a new thread, so I'll ask here . . . 

 

Anyone know why McIntosh med. forfeited the finals against Bryce Barnes of Army at NLO?  He dominated his Semis match with a 13-2 major decision.

 

 

skikayaker, I have read about a half dozen articles on the NLO and have not seen anyone report as to why that match was a MFF. 

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I think if you pull Retherford, then you have to go all-in and pull Mega and Nolf as well.  

 

Conaway is a solid AA candidate but 125 is loaded so it may be a low AA or even a disappointing round of 12. Mega is a clear #3 at this weight and with Delgado having major issues making weight, Nico could very well be return to the finals again. Decent size point swing.

 

Nolf just majored the current starter 21-8 and from everything I am hearing D. Alton would not win a wrestle-off. Lots of comparisons between DT and Nolf floating around State College. Probably just as big a point swing as bringing Retherford out.

 

At the beginning of the season, I was in full agreement with redshirting these guys because I didn't think they could win it but a month into the season, after seeing some of the top teams compete and the development of Gulibon and McIntosh, I think a lineup with Mega, Retherford and Nolf is right there with the other contenders. 

Edited by Flying-Tiger

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Hindsight is 20/20, so it's easy to say now that a fully loaded PSU would be a serious title contender. But headed into the season, it was not so clear.

 

Nolf was a completely unproven guy. As we've been reminded by Marsteller's tough start, you can't rely on a true freshman when making plans for your team until you've seem him in action against legit college competition.

 

Gulibon outperforming expectations like he has so far was impossible to predict. Nobody ever questioned his talent, it was a matter of putting it togeher against top competition, and that was impossible to predict until seeing him against top competition.

 

Delgado being out and presumably missing an important part of the preparation for March others are getting was also impossible to predict.

 

While it sucks for college wrestling to not have a full strength PSU to add even more excitement to the team race, I think Cael made he right decision knowing what he did when he made it.

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I don't think it is going to happen. You'd be throwing away the most important part of the year for Conoway and you'd basically be ending the career for Dylan Alton, who if he came back 100% healthy would do well in his own right. And I would have only 2 guys whose ceiling is 1rst, Nico and Brown, but even then neither of them would be favored.

 

Ohio State and Minny both have 3 guys whose ceiling is 1rst. Logan will be a prohibitive favorite, and Ness will probably be favored at his weight. Both of those schools would have an edge on PSU, imo. 

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On another note, does anyone think Marstellar beats Nolf at 157?  I'd like to see that matchup at an open tournament sometime this season (Scuffle?)

 

i would take nolf. from about midseason last year i felt nolf was the best recruit in the whole class. i wouldn't be surprised for them to reevaluate after the scuffle. if mccutcheon is in the mix to aa and gulibon cements himself as a contender at 133 the staff is going to have to think hard about nolf and retherford. i don't think nico is on the table and i would leave him on the shelf. 

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