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mlbruem

Mizzou vs Ohio State 12/14

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Here's my breakdown:

 

125 - Waters vs Tomasello.  Tomasello is real tough, no doubt.  Waters is just better, especially on the mat.  Waters wins on riding time at least, if not by a lot more.  3-0

 

133 - Manley vs DiJulius.  DiJulius is tough.  Manley's defense is unreal.  DiJulius better hope he's ahead by more than a takedown with 30 sec to go, because Manley could definitely pull the upset if that happens.  3-3

 

141 - Mayes vs Stieber.  Stieber stuck Mayes last year at NCAA's.  Mayes is tougher, but Stieber is Stieber.  Anything less than 6 here is a tactical victory.  3-9

 

149 - Houdashelt vs Languis.  Houdashelt will be looking for bonus to stem the OSU momentum.  I think he gets it.  7-9

 

157 - LaVallee vs Demas?  LaVallee wins with superior positioning and opportunistic offense.  10-9

 

165 - Johnston vs BoJo?  BoJo heavy favorite.  Kresevic not so much.  Big difference.  10-13 with BoJo

 

174 - England vs Martin.  Martin a slight favorite, but basically a toss-up.  Go with tOSU.  10-16

 

184 - Eblen vs Courts.  Courts was unimpressive at Vegas.  Eblen is coming off a win over #8 Atwood.  13-16

 

197 - Miklus vs Snyder.  I'll give the super frosh his due, but by no means is this one assured.  13-19

 

Hwt - Cox vs Tavanello.  Can Cox get the stick to tie it and win on Criteria?  We will see.  19-19

 

This is gonna be a helluva dual.

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silver-medal,  good points.  I didn't realize he had beaten Stauffer.  That's a toss-up, definitely.  No one knows just how good Miklus is yet.  He's beat everyone in front him, including Eblen and Dechow.  Hopefully they decide ahead of time to put him at 197 so he can at least eat.  Up at 197, I agree that Snyder wins comfortably.  That match will be a barn-burner though, if it happens. I didn't realize Tav was small.  That's a huge disadvantage.  I like Cox's chances for bonus even more.

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Tiger Fan:  Mizzou has a great team and is well coached.   

 

My thoughts on your thoughts:

 

 

Manley's defense doesn't mean much because JDJ isn't much of a scorer anyway (unless you're impatient like Earl Hall--then you get roasted).  I like JDJ because he's at home but have no doubt Manley will be well prepared by Coach Smith.

 

Demas is hard to score on and equally opportunistic.  

 

Courts was awful in Vegas but he beat Stauffer in their dual.  I have no idea which Courts will show up but the "good" one is very good.  

 

Snyder will beat Miklus by 4-6.  

 

Cox beats Tav in a decision.  Tav is a very good wrestler; he's just not a true Hvy.  

 

This match has a lot of tight ones.  Whoever wins the majority of them wins the dual.  

Edited by silver-medal

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Snyder has beaten miklus in freeatyle, rather easily if I remember correctly. Granted, folk is very different. I'd be more intwrested to see a cox and Snyder match up, but I doubt we will be seeing that just yet.

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Tomasello is nails and will win an NCAA title before his time is done.  But...right now, it's Mr. Waters' time.

 

If the Feb/March 2014 Matt Manley shows up, he can beat DiJulius.  Otherwise, it's going tOSU's way.

 

I think Mayes has improved enough to keep Stieber to a MD.

 

Would LOVE to see H. Stieber against Houdashelt, but it doesn't sound like that will happen.  Possible NCAA Finals preview with that one.

 

Johnston and England are the two biggest holes in the Mizzou lineup.  If BoJo goes, it'll get ugly at 165.  If not, it's a toss up.  Martin will whip England.

 

I think the main question for MIZ to win is...who has the better shot to beat Courts/Snyder, and keep a loss to minimum team points?  Remember that Eblen beat Atwood at 197.  Can Miklus score bonus against Courts?  I think Miklus has the better shot against Snyder, but if Eblen can't get bonus, it may swing the dual.

 

J'Den can beat Tavanello, especially if it comes down to the team winning.

 

What would be really nice is if Smith disregarded the team score and put J'Den against Snyder to see where they're both at.

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Snyder will beat Miklus by 4-6.  

 

Cox beats Tav in a decision.  Tav is a very good wrestler; he's just not a true Hvy.  

 

This match has a lot of tight ones.  Whoever wins the majority of them wins the dual.  

I wouldn't count out Miklus...this may be his day for a(nother) statement.

 

Cox isn't a true heavy either, so should be an exciting match.

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My take:

 

125:  Waters v. Tomasello:  Waters by DEC, but it'll be closer than folks think (unless Nate gets stuck again).  3-0 Mizzou

133:  Manley v. Dijulius:  Agreed with the above posters.  Johnni's defense is pretty good, but his offense is lackluster.  If he opens up, it could get ugly.  3-3 TIE

141:  Mayes v. Stieber:  Logan pinned him last year.  Won't happen again.  This time it'll be a TF.  8-3 tOSU

149:  Houdashelt v. Languis:  No Hunter... tOSU loses Big Time here.  9-8 Mizzou

157:  Lavallee v. Demas (maybe):  If Demas wrestles, and is fully healthy, he squeaks another decision.  If not Demas, Mizzou by MDec.  So... I'm not expecting Demas.  13-8 Mizzou

165:  Johnston v. Kresevic:  No BoJo from what everyone's saying.  So... this is a tossup.  Going with Johnston.  16-8 Mizzou

174:  England v. Martin:  Martin is the weakest spot for the Buckeyes (when they have their full lineup).  Leaning towards England on this one.  Who knows?  Does Martin give up again and get stuck in OT?  19-8 Mizzou

184:  Eblen v. Courts:  Two things have happend since CKLV.  Either Courts' mindset is screwed, or Ryan beat the living you know what out of him to build him back up.  Edge... Eblen.  22-8 Mizzou

197:  Miklus v. Snyder:  There's no doubt Cox is gonna bump to HWT for this match.  If not, it'll be a HUGE match... If he does, it's still a REALLY GOOD match.  Snyder beat him in FS.  If he keeps the same mentality of 'takedown clinic', then edge Snyder.  22-11 Mizzou

HWT:  Cox v. Tavanello:  I see Cox winning any multitude of ways, but to keep this posting sane, I'll call a DEC by Cox.  25-11 FINAL Mizzou

 

I'm a Buckeye Fan, but with 30% of their lineup out, i just don't see it happening.  The strengths of tOSU (125, 141, 149, 197) all have issues.  125, Mizzou's guy is probably better.  141 is the exception, to pretty much the universe right now.  149, Hunter is out, so it's going lopsided to Mizzou, and 197 is another tough as nails kid that Snyder beats, but by a slim margin.

 

Those are my thoughts.

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I'm a huge Houdashelt fan, but I will say that Languis is a saavy veteran and does not get walked on easily.

 

Solid discussion so far. Really awesome to see Tomasello through all these tests so far, and Waters is another one of those guys with that x-factor to combat his technique and conditioning.

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Any chance Miklus could take out Tavanello? If so, they could potentially have Cox go 197 and win both 197 and Hvy. Then again, maybe I'm crazy.

I was actually thinking this same thing.  Tavanello is a smaller Hwt.  The question is, though, do you want to take a chance of J'Den losing at 197, then giving yourself less of a chance to win at Hwt. with Miklus being so undersized?  Or with Miklus being on a tear so far this season, do you take your chances with Miklus/Snyder, then give yourself a better opportunity with Cox vs. Tavanello?

 

This is where not having Mellon eligible hurts, especially without a solid backup...

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Miklus will be at 184 that is where he has wrestled and I do not think Smith takes him up to197.

Miklus should defeat Courts. Now can Eblen hold Snyder to a decision. Cox wins what he needs to to get Mizzou the win. I hope!!

 

Go Tigers

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Even if Demas is back I dont believe his head will be in it. If he wrestles I see a close one with him losing by 1. Im a huge homer and even I dont think tOSU will pull this out. Having Hunter and Bo out is just too huge a point swing to overcome against a talented team like Mizzou. Those 2 out and Courts losing will spell doom for the Bucks. The Bucks will need EVERYTHING to go right to pull it out.

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My thoughts:

 

125 - Waters is the favorite over Tomasello, but this is closer to a toss up than most would admit.  I give Waters a decision at this point.

3-0 Mizzou

 

133 - Manley has a win over DeShazier this year, but also has a loss to Sabatello.  I think JDJ is the favorite, but, just like 125, it’s closer to a toss up than one would like to admit.  If one school sweeps both of these weights, that could be the difference in the dual.

3-3 Tie

 

141 - Mayes is solid, Logan is Logan.  Mayes will do everything he can to avoid the pinfall.  I think he gets teched though.

8-3 Ohio State

 

149 - Houdashelt is a stud, but so was Carter, and he didn’t manhandle Languis.  I do think Houdashelt gets the major though.

8-7 Ohio State

 

157 - Lavalee is solid, but does have a loss to a wrestler from St. Cloud State on his resume this year.  I think Demas, taking a cue from the Ohio State football team, comes out inspired and wrestles one of his best matches and gets a solid decision.

11-7 Ohio State

 

165 - Johnston is an average wrestler, but I think that he is better than Kresevic.  I am giving Johnston a decision.  However, if Bo wrestles, he gets bonus.

11-10 Ohio State

 

174 - England is good, but he does have a head scratching loss to Reed from Oklahoma.  I think Martin is a hair better, but this is essentially a toss up.

14-10 Ohio State

 

184 - Courts vs. ?, who will Mizzou send out, Micklus or Eblen.  Pre-Vegas, I would have favored Courts over either.  Post-Vegas, I favor both slightly over Courts.  I’m saying they send out Eblen and weigh in both Micklus and Cox at 197.

14-13 Ohio State

 

197 - Snyder v. Micklus/Eblen/Cox.  I’m going to make this easy, I favor Snyder by decision over Micklus, possible major over Eblen, and I favor Cox over Snyder, slightly.  I think, if they are losing, they send out Cox here and take their chances at heavy.

16-14 Mizzou

 

285 - Tav v Micklus.  If this is the way the dual goes, Tav needs a win to seal the dual.  I think he gets it over Micklus.  If Courts or Snyder wins, and Tav has Cox, Cox would need bonus to tie or win, and I think Tav either wins or keeps him to a decision.

17-16 Ohio State

 

There are lots of toss ups, practically the entire dual.  The only clear favorites are Logan and Houdashelt, and I think the difference in their abilities (Logan>Houdashelt) could easily be the difference in the dual.

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I think Waters is a terrible match-up for Tomasello. He is really big and tall for the weight, has never had conditioning issues despite the tough cut, is a very stingy wrestler who can slow the pace down and make it very hard for offensive guys to get to his legs with his low stance, is very patient and doesn't make too many mistakes which tends to frustrate buzzsaws like NT, and is really tough on top.

 

I will be very impressed if NT wins. I think Waters is a solid favorite and don't see him losing to the somewhat undersized and error-prone freshman.

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WN:  I don't think Tomasello is error prone as much as undersized.  The latter has been his issue in his two losses.  Actually, he wrestled very well against Dance.  Dance is very good.

 

Undersized? Are you kidding me? Tomasello looks like he was trapped in a weight room for the first 18 years of his life.  His chest is bigger than most 149 pounders.  The scrambling and "suck back" that Dance hit had nothing to do with size.  He got pinned against Peters because he got out of position and a good wrestler made him pay for it.

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I agree with figure4 on the position comment but not the size comment. NT has a barrel chest but he has chicken legs that more than offset that weight and he is short. He is not a big 125 lb'er.

 

Obviously, NT is very good. But I think he makes little mistakes here and there that the top guys can exploit. In that way, he reminds me a little of Tony Ramos. Both are a little undersized but have huge heart and lungs and tend to overwhelm all but the top handful of guys, and those guys can pick up on the little mistakes. 

 

I have watched almost every NT match this year and last year and think he can occasionally get out of position or is too stubborn sometimes to his detriment. For example, even though he owns Zeke Moisey, I've seen Zeke take advantage of this the last time they wrestled (as well as in the past). Dance got him out of position too. Peters forced him out of position because NT didn't bail when he should've.

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Is this available to watch anywhere? I know it's not on ESPN3, at least when I checked yesterday. Great matchup, would love to watch! Tough to predict with too many lineup variable, who's in, who's out, who's wrestling where, etc.

 

 

Not on BTN2GO either. Not yet anyway. 

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