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Iowa vs tOSU 1/4/15

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klaw,

 

Even if Iowa does beat tOSU exactly like you posted, that still doesn't change the fact the NCAA Team Champ is decided in a Tournament Format.  Also, DiJulius beat Colon 6-2 in Vegas last year.  To say guys don't get better under Ryan's guidance is also ridiculous.  Lance Palmer was considerably better his senior year and, quite frankly, Jaggers improved immensely his last 2 seasons.  The one knock on Ryan that I would point out is how often his wrestlers are injured.  At some point you have to stop calling it luck and look into his training regimen to see why it keeps happening.

 

With the above said, tOSU has the bonus potential, that Iowa lacks, to win come tourney time.  Logan Stieber may very well score as many points as Iowa's top 2 scorers combined.

 

125: Gilman should place higher than Tomasello but I would expect the point difference to be less than 5.

133: This weight is pretty wide open.  Clark should outscore DiJulius as well but I, again, would be surprised if it was by more than 5.

141: The way Dziewa is wrestling this will probably be a 25 point swing in tOSU's favor.

149: This weight will most likely determine the Team Champion.  When does Iowa decide between Grothus and Sorenson?  Will either make the podium?  Which Hunter will show up?  This could end up anywhere from Iowa gaining a point or 2 to tOSU picking up a dozen or so.

157: This weight negates Iowa's gain at 125

165:  Moore looks listless to me.  He can beat anyone, not named Dierenger, at the weight.  The problem is he can lose to several of them as well.  Jordan not wrestling a full season is a worry.  He needs the exposure.  I think Jordan is better.  I think Moore has a ton more experience.  EVEN.

174:  Does Evans take 1st or 4th?  Does Wilps or Epperly catch him napping?  Also, Martin is good enough to sneak into a 7th place finish.  This could end up anywhere from 12 in Iowa's favor to darn near even.

184:  Brooks looks great so far.  Courts looks like a premier ride at Cedar point.  I think Iowa outscore tOSU by 10 at this weight.

197:  Even if Iowa decides to wrestle "Borat" I am not sold the point difference will be all that close.  He hasn't impressed me at Midlands.  I would favor tOSU by 10.

285:  Yet another weight where Iowa is better but likely to get little to no bonus.  Still, Iowa by 10.

 

So, if you sum it up you have  Iowa +5,+5,-25,-6(averaging likelihood of Hunter being back to form),-5,0,+12, +10,-10, and +10.  That scenario would have tOSU winning by 5.  Again, I think 149 decides it for both schools.  A poor performance by both at 149 may be enough for both of them to lose and Minnesota to squeeze past both.

Edited by MSU158

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When you do the math on paper, you can justify your way to any outcome. IA is the heavy favorite, tOSU is the heavy favorite, it's about even, etc.

 

But taking a step back and thinking about what has to happen... with injuries to two of the strongest AA hopefuls that have kept them out of the line-up for half a season, three freshmen (one who has yet to wrestle an official NCAA match), and guys who are on the bubble like JDJ, Courts, and Tavanello not looking like they've improved at all... tOSU will need a lot of luck to win it this year. Even if Logie Bear sticks everyone including his finals opponent, without two of the three freshmen delivering on their promise and at least three of the other guys significantly outperforming the level they've wrestled so far, tOSU is not winning it.

 

This is a far cry from how folks thought tOSU would be positioned heading into the new year.

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wrestlingnerd,

 

I don't think anyone is analyzing in a vacuum.  There are so many factors that can change everything.  The point of this topic is tOSU having a chance to win.  Even with everything that has happened all season I don't see a team jumping to the forefront and pushing tOSU into the backseat.  Iowa still has question marks at 141,149,157 and 197.  Minnesota still has questions at 125, 149, 165 and 285.

 

When looking at each weight I have tried to give a range for what is most likely to happen.  But still, in the end predictions are simply best guess, especially 3 months early.

 

I still think tOSU is the current favorite.  I am willing to sig bet you tOSU against a team of your choice. 

 

*Obviously rules would have to be CLEARLY DEFINED and agreed to prior to bet being finalized*-----I call this the "Ban Basketball Clause" to avoid welching!

Edited by MSU158

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I don't have a team I think is a huge frontrunner. I'd sig bet you the field versus your tOSU though since you have been very consistently calling them the favorites. I do note that you started by calling them something along the lines of prohibitive favorites but now they are just favorites.

 

Obviously, tOSU is one of the handful of teams to have a good shot at winning. I'm a fan of Tom Ryan. I'd like to see him win one.

 

My point was simply that if you do the analysis weight by weight, one at a time, you can justify any outcome. But when you look at a team's performance systemically, as a whole, the factors you must assume for tOSU to win lead you to a different likely outcome. It is impossible to ignore the fact that three of the guys who need to be among the team's most prolific performers are freshmen. The odds that they all deliver are very slim. Historically, how well have exceptionally pedigreed freshmen done at NCAAs? I'd be surprised if even half AAed (I don't know the real number), which would mean tOSU's three frosh (one injured) have to buck the historical trend.

 

It is also impossible to ignore the lack of meaningful progress from the likes of JDJ, Courts, and Tavanello. Granted, as you suggest, Dziewa, Grothus, and Moore have never shown up at NCAAs either, but that is precisely the point: how often do guys who have consistently underperformed championship-level expectations suddenly outperform? Not often, and certainly less than half the time. So again, the Bucks would have to buck that trend.

 

Then throw in the injuries and the fact that Hunter has seen only one match of action (where he was quickly stuck) in 1.5 years and you have a team that already has taken a hit from several of the "so many factors that can change everything" you mentioned.

 

Again, my point is whatever analysis you do on a per-weight basis, you have to slap a hefty discount for the factors I mentioned to have a realistic outlook. tOSU could surprise, and I'd be rooting for Logan if they were headed into the NCAA finals with a shot to win it all. I just see the likely outcome differently than you.

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Obviously injuries changed them from prohibitive favorites.  Hunter and BoJo scare me. Still, Iowa and Minnesota are the only teams that, even with these injuries, have the point scoring potential to beat them.  I am well aware of the factors you point out.  In fact, I usually use the same logic.

 

In the end, I see tOSU as the favorite partially by default.  Even with the points you have mentioned Iowa and Minnesota have just as many questions.  I could see everything you say happening to tOSU and them STILL winning.

 

 

Also, if ever there was a year to take "the field" in a bet this is it.  I like the odds having 76 teams to my 1.  Now you having to pick 1 against my one.......I like my odds.

 

 

Happy Holidays!

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Ohio State fans always crack me up. Love how they have pointed to this being their year. Please! Ryan can sure bring in the talent, but that's about it. Very few ever get better under his guidance. Ohio State will never be a consistent contender. Iowa match not even close. Nice try Buckeyes......maybe next year.

125 - tomasello looks like an Iowa wrestler but has too many mental lapses Iowa +3

133 - has this kid ever beat a higher ranked opponent? Talk about lack of development. Hold onto the wrist Johhni just about all you can do. Iowa + 3

141 - logan is logan. OSU + 4

149 - don't expect little Stieber to wrestle. Dealing with a tough injury and he is just too weak to fight through it. Will never be an all american again. Mark my word. Iowa +3

157 - like OSU here OSU + 3

165 - wishful thinking Buckeyeyes. Still too green Iowa + 3

174 - again no development. Martin came in with a lot of upside and never got better. Evans will grind him into the mat.Iowa +4

184 - does courts have a heart? Sure does not have a gas tank. This kid was a better wrestler as a freshman in HS. Iowa +3

197 - Snyder doesn't have a single back point this year. OSU coaches probably still yet to realize he has zero mat skills. Wish this kid would have went to a school that could actually develope his all game. What a waste. Still enough to win here. OSU + 3

HWY - no chance. Iowa + 3

22-10. 7 matches to 3. Good thing this is OSU's year. Stick to football!

Yeesh, you really hate tOSU huh? What happened to you in the past to harbor such disdain for a wrestling program? You sound like a woman scorned by a recent breakup, lol geez man. So much hate

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Agreed that KLAW sounds like a wrestler that got beat badly by some Ohio kids. dijulius has beaten guilibon 2x, colon, brewer 2x, and hall. that's at least 3 AA's. and i love your prediction of Hunter Steiber's demise and never AA again. Obviously you started your new year's drinking a little soon.

 

While i do think that OSU when 100% healthy could beat anyone, they have yet to prove the toughness at every weight class like Iowa, Penn State and Minnesota brings in every match. In past years, their biggest weaknesses has been 3-4 soft starters that break late in matches. This year's freshman class dramatically changes that (Tomasello, BoJo, & Snyder), however there are a few upper weights that still appear soft and can be the difference of winning a close dual and the NCAA's. The next month will reveal a lot with the Buckeye's wrestling Iowa, Penn State, & Minnesota. It should be exciting.

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Yes, klaw, because nothing is lazier than getting out of your house (and state) and travelling all across the country to recruit kids. Next you're going to call Cael Sanderson lazy for recruiting Nick Nevills instead of Thomas Haines, right?

 

Sorry, but that doesn't pass the laugh test.

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Iowa fan stuck in Columbus.......hate Ohio State more than any program in country. Lazy staff always looking for the easy way out. Have seen so much talent leave state while ryan and co chase big name out of state kids. Give them the intermat top 100 recruit list and there work is done.

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Iowa fan stuck in Columbus.......hate Ohio State more than any program in country. Lazy staff always looking for the easy way out. Have seen so much talent leave state while ryan and co chase big name out of state kids. Give them the intermat top 100 recruit list and there work is done.

Haha I appreciate the honesty.

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klaw,

 

Starting in 06-07 here is a list of Ohio talent recruited to tOSU.  He may have missed on some talent but you can't get EVERY in state guy.

 

Palmer, Nemec, Sponseller, Touris, Triggas, Weakley, Gardner, Jameson, Magrum, Heflin, Palmer, Stieber, Demas, Tessari, Stieber, Martin, Tavanello, Jordan, Ryan and Jordan.

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Glad you brought up Haines. After they lost Nevills how much time do you think they spent evaluating Haines? Pretty much none. Top 10 per intermat, must be great. Lets go get him. Applaud the coaches for getting him to come here, but time will tell if he ever contributes. Early reports weren't glowing then he gets hurt. Won't even get the benefit of a redshirt because he is inactive.

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Yes, klaw, because nothing is lazier than getting out of your house (and state) and travelling all across the country to recruit kids. Next you're going to call Cael Sanderson lazy for recruiting Nick Nevills instead of Thomas Haines, right?

 

Sorry, but that doesn't pass the laugh test.

Reincarnations happen.

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The Midlands further reinforce my belief that tOSU is going to take this dual. Gilman didnt look quite as good as advertised, couldnt score a single offensive point in his loss to Dance. Moore struggled with a non ranked kid in quarters before getting handled by Harger. Burak was 8 seconds away from losing to Mcall?

 

I mean most of the Iowa lineup did as expected as far as wins vs losses, so I guess in the end thats what matters most. I just feel a little bit better about tOSU's chances now.

Edited by Bucksfan

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Gilman by DEC

Clark by DEC

Logan Steiber by FALL

Hunter Steiber by DEC (assumes Hunter is healthy)

Demas by DEC

BOJO by DEC (assumes BoJo is healthy)

Evans by DEC (Martin gets hit with 3 stall calls)

Brooks by DEC

Snyder by DEC over Burak by FALL over Klaprodt

Telford by DEC

 

18-15 Ohio State is Burak wrestles, 21-15 if Klap wrestles. All of this assumes Hunter and BoJo are healthy and in decent condition

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Maybe Kelly is better than most give him credit and the cut to 149 was really just too much for him. There has always been talk of how tough he was in the room.  

 

Not sure he will be able to touch the top guys but it seems he could be a round of 12 guy and score a few points for the Hawks.  

 

Oh and I don't think Demas is a top guy that he can't touch. 

Edited by OtisCampbell

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The hunter that showed up against Houdashelt, Sorensen would spank him.

 

The hunter that AA'd twice, Sorensen will wrestle a tough close match with him.

Honestly I think Sorensen is better than Ballweg from Iowa (2012-2013) and he wrestled Hunter Tough every time, dang near beat him at the dual in Carver and that year Hunter was B1G Champ and #1 at NCAA's.  So regardless if Hunter is 'ready' or not, he will have his hands full in Sorensen.

 

Here is how I have the dual playing out.

 

125: Gilman by dec.

133: Clark by dec.

141: Stieber by Tech

149: Sorensen by dec

157: Demas by dec

165: Jordan by dec

174: Evans by dec

184: Brooks by Maj dec.

197: Burak by dec.

285: Telford by dec.

 

Reasoning:  I think Gilman and Clark are just superior to their opponents, straight up.  Stieber will do his thing, and if it isn't a tech it'll be a pin, but a Major wouldn't totally shock me.  Sorensen has looked like a beast so far this year, and will continue to improve, good test for him against (a hopefully healthy) Stieber.  Kelly is coming off of a win over AA perotti from Rutgers, and I like his chances to continue his momentum, especially considering the tight scores of a lot of Demas' matches, and Kellys gas tank, but think his Quickness will be too much for Iron Mike.

 

If Jordan is 100% I think he is a little better than Moore, but Moore is a savvy veteran and if he gets his head on straight could beat most guys in this weight.  Evans is clearly better, and could get potential bonus if things get out of hand for Martin.  Brooks will wreck courts, courts doesn't have a gas tank and looks to be severely lacking in the heart department more times than not, especially when he needs to gut out a win, Brooks will be on him from the start of the whistle to the last second of the match.  Snyder has shown that hes susceptible to getting taken down multiple times, by far lesser opponents than Burak.  He is basically a neutral only wrestler with little to no mat skills shown thus far, he wont ride Burak and may even give up riding time against him, but Burak has proven to be excellent at getting in on guys legs, and the key will be how many times will he finish against Snyder.  Telford is just better than Tavanello and expect a pretty easy W here.

 

All in all, I have 7 matches for the Hawks and 3 for Buckeyes, but a few tossups i think.  125, 133, 149, 157, 165, 197 will all be excellent matches that realistically could probably go either way.  Hope the Hawks come out on top, and keep building momentum towards march, also Hope Moore gets his head on straight! Should be a great dual, Go Hawks!

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