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andegre

Iowa vs Minnesota Dual Comparison

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Great matchup.  Other than 125 and 157, the matches should be very entertaining.

 

Always fun to guess, so here goes.

 

125-Gilman by MDEC.(unless they wrestled Brancale and he throws him 3x's again ;)) 4-0 Iowa

133-Dardanes Dec. Clark   4-3 Iowa

141-Dardanes Dec. Dziewa 6-4 MINN

149-Sorenson Dec. Short 7-6 Iowa-Really interested to see this match.  Short seems to lack staying power.  Sorenson is the wrong guy to do that against.

157-Ness Pin Kelly           12-7 MINN-If Ness doesn't pull of the pin it will be a regular decision.  Kelly can stall/keep match close with the best of them(excluding IMART).

165-Moore Dec. Wantzek 12-10 MINN

174-Storley Dec. Evans  15-10 MINN- Iowa and Minnesota will split 174 and 197.  Feel free to switch winners accordingly.

184-Brooks Dec. Pfarr 15-13 MINN-This match up decides the dual, IMHO.

197-Burak Dec. Schiller 16-15 Iowa

285-Telford Dec. Kroells 19-15 Iowa

 

For Minnesota to win the Dardanes bro's have to hold serve and Minnesota must win 2 out of 3 from 174-197.  Should be a very entertaining dual.

Edited by MSU158

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This should be one of the best duals of the season. My stab at predictions:

125: Gilman Mdec. Lizak - assuming Lizak is in again, can't see him threatening Gilman, but may keep him to a decision if Gilman is lacking on his offense as he has shown to do sometimes. 4-0 Iowa

133: Dardanes dec. Clark - not a lot of scoring, but Dardanes comes out on top. Certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Clark come out with the W here. 4-3 Minny

141: Dardanes dec. Dziewa - I predict Dardanes will control the match, but won't score any bonus. 7-4 Minny

149: Sorenson dec. Short - Sorenson is on a tear right now while Short always seems to come up short (minor pun intended). No bonus, but a controlled victory for Sorenson 7-7

157: Ness dec. Kelly. Kelly will stall to keep it close. He's not in Ness's league and he knows it. If he opens up I expect some bonus for Ness. 10-7 Minny

165: Wantzek dec. Moore - Moore continues his downward slope, Wantzek doesn't look half bad either. 13-7 Minny

174: Evans dec. Storley - I'll pick Storley at March, but Evans in this dual. As always, I wouldn't be surprised to see either one win this. 10-10

184: Pfarr dec. Brooks - Another match that can go either way. I like Pfarr and think he has the potential to do great things. I'll take him over Brooks in a close one. 13-10 Minny

197: Schiller dec. Burak - Bounces back from the thumping he took from Apple. I just don't see Burak being explosive enough or scrambly enough to take out Schiller. 16-10 Minny

285: Telford dec. Kroells. Kroells simply gets out classed here 16-13 Minny final.

 

If both teams show up hot I think it will be an exciting dual at every single weight. If either team shows up flat things could get ugly and fast. There is a LOT of parity at each weight with these two teams (exceptions being 125/285 for Iowa and 157 for Minny). Can't wait for this one.

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Gilman maj Lizak  4-0

Dardanes dec Clark 4-3

Dardanes dec Dz 4-6

Sorenson dec Short 7-6

Ness Maj Kelly 7-10

Moore dec Wanzek 10-10

Storley dec Evans 10-13

Brooks dec Pfarr 13-13

Schiller dec Burak 13-16

Telford dec Krol  16-16

Edited by Flying-Tiger

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I think the gophers in big trouble. Just plain outmanned in this one.

 

125-gilman major Lizak, Lizak is tough on top as he rode conway out

133-Dardanes over Clark, I think Dardanes wins at big tens again but loses to him at ncaa

141-Dardanes over jeva, I can see this one going to iowa though

149-Sorensen tech short, major lack of conditioning and heart from short at the end of match, I see a terry brands Kendall cross finish.

157-ness dec kelly

165-Wanzek dec moore, moore is HEW

174-Evans over storley, he's petering out lately and thinking he's HEW too

184-pfarr over brooks, match of the dual, Pfarr is way underrated

197-burka over Schiller, has not looked good lately at all even in wins

285-Telford over Kroells, will go to OT

 

I got it 18-15 iowa with 5 matches split

Edited by lunatcifringe

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125: Gilman by maj

133:Dardanes by dec (it is very important is Dardanes wants to win that he keep Clark from scoring in the first period, and don't choose down if you are leading!)

141:  Dardanes hits a few double and wins by something 7-3 or 9-2 (major is unlikely but possible)

149:  Sorenson by decision (don't see a major, short hasn't given up bonus points this year)

157:Ness by dec (30 % chance of pin)

165: Wanzek by dec (Moore has had mixed results, give it to the hometown boy)

174: Storely gives Evans his first loss

184: Brooks will be too much for Pfarr (though if Pfarr can counter well he could win it)

197: Schiller is a class above Burak, and Burak hasn't been lighting the world on fire given his competition

285: Telford wins

 

Min wins 18-13

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125 Gilman MD    Iowa 4-0

133 Dardanes       Iowa 4-3

141 Dardanes       Minny 6-4

149 Sorensen       Iowa 7-6

157 Ness  fall        Minny 12-7

165 Moore            Minny 12-10

174 Storley           Minny 15-10

184 Brooks          Minny 15-13

197 Schiller          Minny 18-13

Hwt Telford          Minny 18-16

 

Looks razor thin with each winning 5 matches. On paper, a slight edge to Minny..... but a thing that helps Iowa is that in their 5 favored weight classes, they are solid favorites, whereas with Minny, only Ness is a solid favorite.  Clark, Dziewa, Evans, and Burak are all close, and any could come away with a win. Just one of those swinging to Iowa's favor gives Iowa the win. Also, if Kelly can avoid a fall or TF, that could be huge.

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Coming into this season many Minnestoa fans were thinking Short would have a season like Sorenson is having. To this point he has not really showed much other than he can keep it kinda close with most people. 

 

The performance of each teams 149 lbers has turned what looked to be a dead heat at tournament time into Iowa being a big favorite. 

 

There seems to be a lot freshman that burn out at the end of their first college season hard, and some that start to figure things out and come out of nowhere at the end of the year.  

 

Short doing either of those would not surprise me. 

Edited by OtisCampbell

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125) Gilman maj ....0-3

133) CD dec ..........3-3

141) ND dec............6-3

149) Sorensen dec..6-6

157) Ness Maj..........10-6

165) Moore dec........10-9

174) Storley dec........13-9

184) Pfarr dec...........16-9

197) Schiller dec........19-9

hvy) Stallford disq for stalling 25-9

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Really, Otis? A big favorite? I think they have now proven themselves to be the most consistent lineup from top to bottom, but the NCAA tourney isn't about that. It's about scoring PTs, plain and simple. As solid as they are, they are going to need ideal seeding and draws to get any bonus. As good as they are who has actually lit up the scoreboard against decent competition? Remember the new system pretty much guarantees the top 33 at each weight are there.

 

Burak and Evans are undefeated, but the have a ton of matches decided by 6 or less. Telford may pin a 1st round opponent but that is it. Clark is similar. Sorenson and Brooks may bully their 1st opponent, but they still have the freshman/1st varsity year factor everyone is using against tOSU. Gilman will wrestle conservatively,similar to Ramos last year. Finally, Dziewa, Kelly and Moore may not contribute at all.

 

I think they have a great chance to have 7 AA's. Still, will that be enough? I would the over/under at 5 for bonus point wins and that is pretty low for 7 AA's and probably 10 qualifiers. Also, I have a real hard time picking a Hawkeye to make the finals.

 

Not having a big point scorer like Stieber or Ness keeps me from clearly favoring them. I just don't like the margin for error that I believe Iowa has right now. I think they could win, and are definitely looking like front runners, but again tourney wrestling is a completely different animal.

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They are projected ahead by 20 points in some polls. I would say yes they are a big favorite at this point and that was really not my point. Big or small favorite, Iowa's success and Minnesota's lack of at 149 is really one of the main difference in the two teams NCAAs point projection.

 

I know OSU and Mizzu are not out of it, but at this point Iowa is big favorites over them as well. I will give you Stieber as an almost guaranteed BIG points scorer but Ness lets wait and see. I will not be chalking anything up from him until it is all said and done. Lets just say Ness is not immune to head scratching losses and there are guys in that weight that are more than capable of beating him. If he ends up with a 2 or 3 seed at nationals he will have to face at least 2 of them to win it.  

 

I get your point though. For Iowa to have all their guys wrestle to their rankings without a letdown will take a good team performance. 

Edited by OtisCampbell

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Otis,

 

I agree with most of what you said.  Sorenson has definitely beautified Iowa's postseason outlook.  Still, I think Ness is on a mission this year.  I honestly don't see him losing a match. I am also not sold on Iowa having any Finalists.  I see a bunch of 4-6 finishers.  For Iowa to win it, I think they will have to do it Saturday morning(Consolation Bracket).  Those 4th and 6th 'ers need to take 3rd and 5th!

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