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Perry

Will There Be a Freshman Champ

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165: BoJo. He's got a horse in front of him in Dieringer. If he ends up on the other side of the bracket and doesn't meet him until Saturday night I think his chances go up a good amount (no way he comes in at under 180 for that match). There are a lot of good 165's this season, but I like BoJo vs. the pack. Personally, he's my favorite freshman to watch wrestle.

 

 

Are we still in the stone age thinking bigger means better? Who cares if he is able to put 13lbs of fluid into his body in the 9-10hours between weigh-ins and competition. This used to be a big deal in the past when you never competed on a 1 hour weigh-in. Now your body has be be shrunk to the weight class to be able to compete on 1-2 hour weigh-ins. Carrying that much fluid would just be stupid. JO had one of the biggest cuts in recent memory at 133. He didn't wrestle any better with the 9-10 hour weigh-in than he did with the 1 hour dual weigh-in.

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hammerlock3,

 

You seem to be very hard to please.

 

Dierenger is currently 85-4 with 54 bonus pt. wins of which 29 were pins.  3 of those 4 losses came to 4X AA, 2X Finalist, 1X Champ Derek St. John.

 

Year by year:

 

2012-2013: 35-3------------21 B.P. wins(10 falls) NCAA-3rd

2013-2014: 32-1------------19 B.P. wins(12 falls) NCAA-1st

2014-2015: 18-0------------14 B.P. wins(7 falls)  NCAA-?

 

Other than Stieber, who deserves higher praise?  There may be an argument for Delgado but he basically hasn't even wrestled this season.  Cox and Gwiz both lost at the All Star Classic(I count it even if the Metcalf haters do not).  I don't see any other resume that clearly puts someone at the top of their respective weight class.

 I would agree, he was also 17-1 during his red shirt year, that gives him 5 losses in 107 times stepping on the mat at the NCAA level.  I'd say he is proven thus far.

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On the Ohio State side of things, If you assume at this point that the likelihood of Jordan, Tomasello or Snyder getting into the finals to be around 25% each, there is about a 75% chance one of them will get there.  I think 25% is reasonable for each wrestler.

 

Even if you drop each tOSU wrestler to about a one out of six chance, it's still about a 50-50 chance one of them makes the finals.

 

Adding the other top freshmen into the mix, I'd say that there is a very good chance of a freshman finalist, and a reasonable chance of a freshman champion.  

Good God.  Let's carry this a step further.  Let's assume that instead of 3 freshman with a 25% probably of getting there, there were 4 freshman with a 25% probability of getting there.  By your logic that would mean there is a 100% chance one of them will be in the finals.

 

Edit to add correct calculation.  Here is one way to calculate the probability of at least one of the 3 freshman making the finals, assuming all 3 had a 25% chance of making it:   1-(3/4*3/4*3/4) or 37/64 or 57.8%

Edited by mgrimm

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Good God.  Let's carry this a step further.  Let's assume that instead of 3 freshman with a 25% probably of getting there, there were 4 freshman with a 25% probability of getting there.  By your logic that would mean there is a 100% chance one of them will be in the finals.

This is getting complicated:

 

4 freshmen at 25% probability of winning:

 

4*(1/4) - 6*(1/16) +4(1/64) - 1/256 = .6836  or 68.36% probability that at least one freshman wins.

Edited by robnh

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hammerlock3,

 

You seem to be very hard to please.

 

Dierenger is currently 85-4 with 54 bonus pt. wins of which 29 were pins.  3 of those 4 losses came to 4X AA, 2X Finalist, 1X Champ Derek St. John.

 

Year by year:

 

2012-2013: 35-3------------21 B.P. wins(10 falls) NCAA-3rd

2013-2014: 32-1------------19  B.P. wins(12 falls) NCAA-1st

2014-2015: 18-0------------14 B.P. wins(7 falls)  NCAA-?

 

Other than Stieber, who deserves higher praise?  There may be an argument for Delgado but he basically hasn't even wrestled this season.  Cox and Gwiz both lost at the All Star Classic(I count it even if the Metcalf haters do not).  I don't see any other resume that clearly puts someone at the top of their respective weight class.

Yeah I am hard to please. No point in coming on here picking favorites and bandwagon jumping right?

 

I just think he get slightly more praise than he deserves. I think J Cox gets slightly less than he deserves does that help?

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 I would agree, he was also 17-1 during his red shirt year, that gives him 5 losses in 107 times stepping on the mat at the NCAA level.  I'd say he is proven thus far. 

So i can't say he is slightly overrated? Who said he isn't proven? What do you mean by proven? This topic as a lot of idiotic math and numbers flying around. 

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On the Ohio State side of things, If you assume at this point that the likelihood of Jordan, Tomasello or Snyder getting into the finals to be around 25% each, there is about a 75% chance one of them will get there.  I think 25% is reasonable for each wrestler.

 

Even if you drop each tOSU wrestler to about a one out of six chance, it's still about a 50-50 chance one of them makes the finals.

 

Adding the other top freshmen into the mix, I'd say that there is a very good chance of a freshman finalist, and a reasonable chance of a freshman champion.  

 

Assuming this opinion of 25% chance for each guy is correct, here is how you do the math for the chances of at least one of them doing it. 

 

(1-.25) x (1-.25) x (1-.25) = .4218 that none will win, or a 1.0 -.42 = 57.8% chance that at least one of them will win it all. 

 

That sounds like pretty good chances, but I really doubt that many people would agree that all three guys have a one in four chance of winning this.  I would put Tomasello's chance at less that 5% even though I love the way he wrestles He is going to have to take out at least two or more of these guys (Dance, Waters, Gillman, Delgado, Garrett).  I would give Snyder or Bo Jordan a decent shot at winning. 

Edited by Two_on_one

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So i can't say he is slightly overrated? Who said he isn't proven? What do you mean by proven? This topic as a lot of idiotic math and numbers flying around. 

 

I fail to understand the logic in your statement of "idiotic math and numbers flying around,"  Numbers don't lie. I think those 3 questions you asked, you already have the answers to.  

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Right at this moment I'd say Sorenson and Snyder have the best shot due to the way their weight classes are.  Both have a defending champion, but they all take turns beating each other.  Both Sorenson (with wins over Kindig, Steiber and Tsirtsis) and Snyder (with his win over McIntosh & McIntosh's win over Shiller) have shown that they are right there with the best their bracket has to offer.  I wouldn't pick either one to win it, but I wouldn't be shocked if one of them took home the title on a hot weekend.

 

Martinez and Jordan are similar in that they've looked lights-out, but they have a dominant force in their weight class that has shown no signs of coming back to the pack.  Ness and Dieringer have both actually gotten better than last season and it would be a major upset if they were knocked off (particularly when it matters) by a rookie.  Could it happen? Sure.  Will it?  Unlikely.

 

I love Tomasello, and I think he'll win a title before he's through, but there's just too much talent in front of him.  I honestly believe he can beat anyone (other than a healthy Delgado) in the weight, but I just  don't think he could beat Peters in the quarters, Waters in the semis and then Delgado in the finals...and even if there are upsets, guys like Gilman and Conway and Garrett and Dance are all there to provide roadblocks to the championship. It's just too much.

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Hammerlock3,

 

I apologize. I didn't realize stating someone's record, type of wins and NCAA placements falls under "idiotic" math. I should have done like most and just stated a random opinion without any logic or reason to support it.

 

Also, the term"bandwagon" has a ton of negative connotations associated with it. If you would have said you thought he was getting slightly more hype than he deserved or something along those lines I wouldn't argue. Simply put, the guy hasn't shown up out of nowhere to get a "bandwagon" following. His 3 1/2 seasons(including his redshirt) of "idiotic" numbers has earned him elite status.

Edited by MSU158

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In looking at the weights where the freshman contenders are, I would say that Brandon Sorenson from Iowa has the best shot at winning it this year. 

 

His two losses were to Grothus (who would not be in the tournament) and a 2-3 loss to Habat.  

 

With wins over Tsirtsis, Kindig, Moreno, Mastriani, and H. Stieber,  you could make a good argument that he is the favorite at this weight. Houdashelt might be his biggest hurdle since that could be a bad match-up for Sorenson. 

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Hammerlock3,

 

I apologize. I didn't realize stating someone's record, type of wins and NCAA placements falls under "idiotic" math. I should have done like most and just stated a random opinion without any logic or reason to support it.

 

Also, the term"bandwagon" has a ton of negative connotations associated with it. If you would have said you thought he was getting slightly more hype than he deserved or something along those lines I wouldn't argue. Simply put, the guy hasn't shown up out of nowhere to get a "bandwagon" following. His 3 1/2 seasons(including his redshirt) of "idiotic" numbers has earned him elite status.

MSU i wasn't being nearly as aggressive as you thought.

 

About the math thing, i was referring to the 25% x 4 equals 75% thing, and 5 loses = "Proven". Not what you said. You're math was very persuasive. 

 

When I said bandwagon i really wasn't referring to anyone in this topic at all (not even the wisconsin guy who probably has been following derringer sense middle school). 

 

I was very course and rude to the Wisconsin dude, cause he doesn't seem to think about the making any logical connections in his posts and I am disturbed by thoughtless people. 

 

You definitely have the moral high ground on me though, and I wish i hadn't posted so clumsily because I do dislike aggravating unless its in a very specific and deliberate way. 

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this thread became incredibly analytical, however, I think there's a slightly more scientific and simple approach to take.  Instead of the 25% chance application, let's take those three frosh:

 

Tomasello

* What % chance do you believe that he will be Garrett?  How about Waters?  How about Gilman?

* Keep in mind, he'll have to do it consecutively.

* Suppose it's 25% chance on two of those guys... isn't the forumla 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625?, Or, a 6.25% chance?

 

BoJo

* What are the chances he beats Sulzer?  Moreno?  Dieringer?

*  Consecutive is key here

* Suppose 50% on Sulzer, and 10% on Dieringer

* Math works out to .50*10 = .05 or 5%

 

Not going any further on this, but the chances, given the weight classes, are pretty darn slim (amongst the tOSU frosh's).

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Assuming this opinion of 25% chance for each guy is correct, here is how you do the math for the chances of at least one of them doing it. 

 

(1-.25) x (1-.25) x (1-.25) = .4218 that none will win, or a 1.0 -.42 = 57.8% chance that at least one of them will win it all. 

 

That sounds like pretty good chances, but I really doubt that many people would agree that all three guys have a one in four chance of winning this.  I would put Tomasello's chance at less that 5% even though I love the way he wrestles He is going to have to take out at least two or more of these guys (Dance, Waters, Gillman, Delgado, Garrett).  I would give Snyder or Bo Jordan a decent shot at winning. 

Yeah, I screwed it up.  57.813% is the right answer.  

 

Two on one, the original problem was predicting the likelihood of one or more reaching the finals- not winning it all.

Edited by TheOhioState

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How could that be the original problem given the threads title...

Well, if you could accept the likelihood that there is a greater than 57% chance that at least ONE of the three tOSU freshman sensations might reach the finals, based on (my) premise that each individual tOSU wrestler has a 25% likelihood of reaching the finals, AND if you add into the mix the other talented freshman competing this year, I'd say that there is some pertinent dialogue out there as to whether some freshman might reach the finals and therefore win the weight class.

The more that reach the finals, the more that have a chance to win it.  

 

I'd bet that we will see at least one freshman finalist this year.  Whether or not he wins is another story.

 

 

 

How many of you out there are saying that there is a small chance that a freshman reaches the finals? 

 

 

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I think there is a 5% chance an particular freshmen makes the finals. But about 40 freshmen will qualifying, so I am going to multiply .05 x 40 which equals 2%. There is a 1 in 50 chance any freshmen makes the finals. So take the big three from OSU, .02/40 = .005

 

Kyle Snyder has a 1 in three hundred thousand chance to make the finals.

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I think there is a 5% chance an particular freshmen makes the finals. But about 40 freshmen will qualifying, so I am going to multiply .05 x 40 which equals 2%. There is a 1 in 50 chance any freshmen makes the finals. So take the big three from OSU, .02/40 = .005

 

Kyle Snyder has a 1 in three hundred thousand chance to make the finals.

Only if everybody has an equal chance, using that logic Logan Stiebler has only a 1 in 33 (or 77-1, 1 for each team) chance of winning NCAA, I don't pick Snyder to be a finalist, but if I could go to Las Vegas and risk $1 if Snyder does not the finals, and they offer $300k if he makes the finals, I would put  $1 down.

 

Snyder probably has between 10-25% chance of being a finalist this year i in 10-1in4

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I think there is a 5% chance an particular freshmen makes the finals. But about 40 freshmen will qualifying, so I am going to multiply .05 x 40 which equals 2%. There is a 1 in 50 chance any freshmen makes the finals. So take the big three from OSU, .02/40 = .005

 

Kyle Snyder has a 1 in three hundred thousand chance to make the finals.

if 40 fr make the tourney and there is a 5% chance of any one of them making the finals then we should expect 2 freshman finalists. 

 

also if any particular freshman has a 5% chance making the finals then Kyle Snyder has at least a 5% chance of making the finals.

 

#math

Edited by Jaroslav Hasek

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