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Perry

Will There Be a Freshman Champ

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Although that transitive property holds true when analyzing Freshman as a whole, Snyder's actual chances should differ significantly based on ONLY the data relevant to him.  In other words, transitive properties don't trump relative data.

Edited by MSU158

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Although that transitive property holds true when analyzing Freshman as a whole, Snyder's actual chances should differ significantly based on ONLY the data relevant to him.  In other words, transitive properties don't trump relative data.

yes i am a believer in Bayesian statistics. i shall reword my post to make that more clear. 

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If you really wanna break it down, take a look at the top 1 or 2 frosh who we think have a chance... let's say, Tomasello and Snyder.  Let's also assume that we'll assign probabilities of them 1.) making the quarters, 2.) Making the semi's, 3.) making the finals, and then 4.) Winning it.  Each probability would be based individually upon their most likely opponent (a top 8, 4, 2 guy, etc).

 

Tomasello:

1.) Chance at making Quarters (top 8):  90%

2.) Probability of beating a Top 8 guy and making Semis (top 4):  25%

3.) Probability of beating a Top 4 guy and making Finals (top 2):  10%

4.) Probability of beating Finals Opponent:  5%

 

.9 x .25 x .10 x .05 = 0.11%

 

Snyder: (note:  His only losses were 1pt'ers to top 4 guys)

1.) Chance at making Quarters (top 8):  100%

2.) Probability of beating a Top 8 guy and making Semis (top 4):  75%

3.) Probability of beating a Top 4 guy and making Finals (top 2):  33%

4.) Probability of beating Finals Opponent:  25%

 

1.0 x .75 x .33 x .25 = 6.19%

 

for contrast:  Logan Stieber:

1.) Chance at making Quarters (top 8):  100%

2.) Probability of beating a Top 8 guy and making Semis (top 4):  100%

3.) Probability of beating a Top 4 guy and making Finals (top 2):  99%

4.) Probability of beating Finals Opponent:  95%

 

1.0 x 1.0 x .99 x .95 = 94.1%

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if 40 fr make the tourney and there is a 5% chance of any one of them making the finals then we should expect 2 freshman finalists. 

 

also if any particular freshman has a 5% chance making the finals then Kyle Snyder has at least a 5% chance of making the finals.

 

#math

 

With 40 freshman and 10 weight classes you would have more than two frosh competing in at least some of the classes.  Thus their probabilities of reaching the finals are no longer independant and you can no longer use the expectation formula above.  Unless you know the precise distribution of freshman across the weight classes (and brackets), the actual number of freshman expected to make the finals is indeterminate (but definitely less than 2).

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With 40 freshman and 10 weight classes you would have more than two frosh competing in at least some of the classes.  Thus their probabilities of reaching the finals are no longer independant and you can no longer use the expectation formula above.  Unless you know the precise distribution of freshman across the weight classes (and brackets), the actual number of freshman expected to make the finals is indeterminate (but definitely less than 2).

i wasnt trying to figure the odds, i was responding to the assumptions already given by hammerlock. if you want to figure the actual odds be my guest. 

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Only if everybody has an equal chance, using that logic Logan Stiebler has only a 1 in 33 (or 77-1, 1 for each team) chance of winning NCAA, I don't pick Snyder to be a finalist, but if I could go to Las Vegas and risk $1 if Snyder does not the finals, and they offer $300k if he makes the finals, I would put  $1 down.

 

Snyder probably has between 10-25% chance of being a finalist this year i in 10-1in4

Good troll work!  

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so much love for Bojo and no love for Zeke... Bojo barely beat Massa, Zeke made it look like Massa wanted to quit the sport. Bojo barely beat Walsh, Zeke handled him and almost stuck him, not so much on the score but the match wasn't really ever in doubt. Zeke has 17 wins, 13 with bonus points... he is fairly good. I think Dieringer is a big step above everyone else.

Edited by brent4583

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so much love for Bojo and no love for Zeke... Bojo barely beat Massa, Zeke made it look like Massa wanted to quit the sport. Bojo barely beat Walsh, Zeke handled him and almost stuck him, not so much on the score but the match wasn't really ever in doubt. Zeke has 17 wins, 13 with bonus points... he is fairly good. I think Dieringer is a big step above everyone else.

 

the headscratcher loss to Stafford (Air Force) at the Cowboy Open might have something to do with it.  Otherwise I agree, he has been wrestling lights out lately.

Edited by piggy

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I agree strange loss, first week of the season, he seems to have hit another gear the last couple of weeks. I hear Bo has always had his number, a lot can happen in 3 years. I do agree Bo is a stud but he hasn't exactly separated himself from the top 10 guys yet.

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What do you mean no love for Zeke? Thread is about Freshman and the finals. Thats why Bo is getting so much "love". Just because people are predicting a possible finals appearance for Bojo doesnt necessarily mean they really believe he will make it there. Its just he has a better than average shot amonst freshman. I would be impressed if Bo can place 5th or higher. Like you said, he hasnt exactly lit the scoreboard up vs top ranked opponents. He will have trouble with Sulz and Zeke. Hopefully, we will see one of those pan out here around the corner at BIG10's.

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did Bo Jordan and Sulzer ever wrestle in HS? Both being Ohio guys, just wondering, not that it means much now.

Not that I recall. Sulz is a good bit older, idk. I remember Chris Phillips giving Sulzer a good beating in HS

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did Bo Jordan and Sulzer ever wrestle in HS? Both being Ohio guys, just wondering, not that it means much now.

They only overlapped in 2010. Frosh Bo was 130 and Sr. Sulzer was 160. Nick won the Ironman final over Demas, who in the following weeks  moved to 171. Bo didn't wrestle in the Ironman that year as a freshman. He was held out by....Tom Ryan was it?

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thanks Bucksfan and LkwdSteve. realized the age difference, and figured that age gap in HS probably meant not in same weight back then but figured I'd ask. That said, how do see that one going now if they meet?  

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Not that I recall. Sulz is a good bit older, idk. I remember Chris Phillips giving Sulzer a good beating in HS

Phillips was at 171 (beat Sulzer's teammate Brian Roddy in the Ironman final as a freshman). Sulzer was at 130. The following year Phillips lost to Ruth at 171 while Sulzer made the Ironman 152 final (after beating Habat, who then dropped to 145) but lost to Max Huntley (if memory serves). 

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thanks Bucksfan and LkwdSteve. realized the age difference, and figured that age gap in HS probably meant not in same weight back then but figured I'd ask. That said, how do see that one going now if they meet?  

It's very hard for me to root against Nick Sulzer. One of those conundrums.

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