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Perry

Will There Be a Freshman Champ

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Last year it seemed there was some discussion at this time about how many freshman, if any, had a chance at the title in March. There is a lot of underclassman talent again this season and I am curious how many freshman (again, if any) people think have a chance at winning it all a7t the end of the season. 

 

Here's my list of freshman (in order of likelihood) to win it all:

 

149: Sorenson. A meat grinder of a bracket, but he's already proven he can beat the top guys. Tons of parity here this year, but based on having beaten all the top guys but Habat I will give him the nod at most likely to get it done.

157: IMart. He just beat the #2 in Green and didn't give up a point in doing it. Ian Miller will be a tough match up coming up, and Ness seems to have taken it to another level this season. Still, a good shot here for gold.

165: BoJo. He's got a horse in front of him in Dieringer. If he ends up on the other side of the bracket and doesn't meet him until Saturday night I think his chances go up a good amount (no way he comes in at under 180 for that match). There are a lot of good 165's this season, but I like BoJo vs. the pack. Personally, he's my favorite freshman to watch wrestle.

197: Snyder. Another meat grinder of a weight. We know he's close with everyone, but can he put that many solid wins together back to back? I don't think he can beat Cox, but he's done it before so there's no telling..

125: Nathan T. 125 is loaded. I can see him winning it, but there are so many obstacles it will be very tough for him to end up on top.

 

Overall, I think we will see one of these guys end up in first.

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In order of likelihood of winning it....

 

Sorenson--deep weight bo no real world beaters

Imar--wrestling very well, would have to beat a matured D Ness

Snyder--class is close, anyone can beat anyone in top 4-5

Nato--depends on how Delgado looks

Bojo--could be 190 and not beating Ringer, hes that good

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I think so.

 

I actually think Jordan is gonna beat Dieringer. He doesn't make many mistakes, and he rides a cheesy cross body thats really hard to get away from (which i consider a hairs breadth from stalling but he's turning guys so that doesn't make much sense i guess). These things kinda impede his bonus point potential against top guys (for now he's just a freshman), but it makes him a tough nut to crack. Basically, there are no easy points scored against him, which goes a long way at the national tournament. 

 

He's also the only guy who might be as strong as dieringer. 

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In order of likelihood of winning it....

 

Sorenson--deep weight bo no real world beaters

Imar--wrestling very well, would have to beat a matured D Ness

Snyder--class is close, anyone can beat anyone in top 4-5

Nato--depends on how Delgado looks

Bojo--could be 190 and not beating Ringer, hes that good

This seems about right to me. Dieringer is on another level from everyone in college save Stieber. 

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I think so.

 

I actually think Jordan is gonna beat Dieringer. He doesn't make many mistakes, and he rides a cheesy cross body thats really hard to get away from (which i consider a hairs breadth from stalling but he's turning guys so that doesn't make much sense i guess). These things kinda impede his bonus point potential against top guys (for now he's just a freshman), but it makes him a tough nut to crack. Basically, there are no easy points scored against him, which goes a long way at the national tournament. 

 

He's also the only guy who might be as strong as dieringer. 

 

 

 

I would pick Dieringer over BoJo by about 3-7 points.

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If I were forced to answer one way or the other, I would definitely say no.  Every freshman listed has clear returning talent at the weight.  Last year, Cox and Tsirtsis didn't. 

 

At 149, Maple was up a weight and a shell of his former self.  Kindig, Grajales, Habat, Minotti and English had yet to AA.  Houdashelt, Sakaguchi and Dardanes were the only other returning AA's and still all had taken several losses during the season.  The weight had a ton of parity but it was set up perfect for Tsirtsis to win 4-1,4-3, 2-1, 2-1 and 3-1.

 

At 197, Heflin was the top guy coming in having bumped up from 174.  No offense to Heflin, but it says a lot about a weight class if you can bump up 23lbs in one year and go 28-2, earning the 1 seed and make it to the Finals.  Still he did have Schiller, Gadson, McIntosh and Rutt as returning AA's.  But, a concussion ended Rutt and Schiller, Gadson and McIntosh had yet to even sniff an NCAA final.

 

Now to this year:

 

At 125, You have a 3X AA(2x Champ) returning(albeit in questionable condition), a 2x AA having taken 3rd and 2nd.  The 4th and 6th place finishers are returning.  Tyler Cox is also a returning AA and R12ers Terao and Klimara are back.  You then have top talent Gilman to contend with.  This is a very hard weight class for someone with experience to get through, let alone a Frosh.

 

133-141: No way, no how.

 

149:  Sorenson has improved as the season has progressed.  Still, he has the returning 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th place finisher along with 2x AA Stieber.  You also can't forget about Villalonga or Claxton.  Admittedly, no one is wrecking the weight class, but there are a lot of experienced obstacles to overcome.

 

157:  Ness is an animal and more focused than ever before.  He hasn't had his normal early season blips.  Look out.  Also, add in 3X AA Green, the beastly Miller and returning AA's Brascetta, Realbuto, Perrotti and Minotti.  I think Martinez may be the best Freshman this year, but he has a very small margin for error.

 

165:BoJo has looked awesome, but Dierenger has looked unbeatable.  I think the talent drops off enough after Dierenger that BoJo may have the best chance to make the Finals, but he still has to get through AA's Sulzer, Moreno, Harger and Cousin Zeke.  You also have to throw in Walsh, Massa and the 2 unrelated Moore's.

 

174-184: No way, no how

 

197:Good luck, Snyder.  Cox is a Manimal,  Schiller, Gadson and McIntosh are officially seasoned.  Burak and Hartmann are very tough.  Top heavy weight.

 

285:  NO CHANCE. 

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Last year it seemed there was some discussion at this time about how many freshman, if any, had a chance at the title in March. There is a lot of underclassman talent again this season and I am curious how many freshman (again, if any) people think have a chance at winning it all a7t the end of the season. 

 

Here's my list of freshman (in order of likelihood) to win it all:

 

149: Sorenson. A meat grinder of a bracket, but he's already proven he can beat the top guys. Tons of parity here this year, but based on having beaten all the top guys but Habat I will give him the nod at most likely to get it done.

157: IMart. He just beat the #2 in Green and didn't give up a point in doing it. Ian Miller will be a tough match up coming up, and Ness seems to have taken it to another level this season. Still, a good shot here for gold.

165: BoJo. He's got a horse in front of him in Dieringer. If he ends up on the other side of the bracket and doesn't meet him until Saturday night I think his chances go up a good amount (no way he comes in at under 180 for that match). There are a lot of good 165's this season, but I like BoJo vs. the pack. Personally, he's my favorite freshman to watch wrestle.

197: Snyder. Another meat grinder of a weight. We know he's close with everyone, but can he put that many solid wins together back to back? I don't think he can beat Cox, but he's done it before so there's no telling..

125: Nathan T. 125 is loaded. I can see him winning it, but there are so many obstacles it will be very tough for him to end up on top.

 

Overall, I think we will see one of these guys end up in first.

Sorenson hasn't beat Houdashelt, who I would consider one of the "top guys"...

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In order for IMar to win, he's going to need to get the 1 seed.  He can do this by beating Ian Miller at the National Duals, and by winning the Big X tournament.  If he gets the 1 seed, that means Ness and Miller will slug it out as the 2 and 3 seed and IMar will most likely have Green in the semis, who he dominated last week (I felt like it was a dominating 2-0).  BoJo has a great shot, but Derienger is pretty amazing this year.  Snyder already handled McCintosh, and should be much improved by the time the tournament rolls around, so he's got a legit shot as well.  149 is wide open imo. 

 

 

 

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165: BoJo. He's got a horse in front of him in Dieringer. If he ends up on the other side of the bracket and doesn't meet him until Saturday night I think his chances go up a good amount (no way he comes in at under 180 for that match). There are a lot of good 165's this season, but I like BoJo vs. the pack. Personally, he's my favorite freshman to watch wrestle.

 

 

If BoJo is really bouncing between 180+ and 165 everyday I say he doesn't even make it to Dieringer, but if he does weight won't be the issue.

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1. Snyder 2. Sorenson 3. Bojo  4.The rest

 

Snyder has two razor thin losses to Gasden and Burak,  He's proven he can beat Cox.

 

149 has alot of parity, I wouldn't be surprised by Sorenson winning here.

 

I think IsJo will beat Bojo.  

Edited by Threadkilla

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Snyder has two razor thin losses to Gasden and Burak,  He's proven he can beat Cox.

Snyder may beat Cox if his coaching staff doesn't pull a boner.

 

On a serious note Phil Wellington has defeated J'den more recently than Snyder. Neither of them are doing it in 2015.

 

I-Mart has the best chance followed closely by Sorensen. Beyond that, no one else has any chance unless Dieringer oversleeps and misses weigh ins. 

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On the Ohio State side of things, If you assume at this point that the likelihood of Jordan, Tomasello or Snyder getting into the finals to be around 25% each, there is about a 75% chance one of them will get there.  I think 25% is reasonable for each wrestler.
 

Even if you drop each tOSU wrestler to about a one out of six chance, it's still about a 50-50 chance one of them makes the finals.

Adding the other top freshmen into the mix, I'd say that there is a very good chance of a freshman finalist, and a reasonable chance of a freshman champion.  

 

 

Edited by TheOhioState

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hammerlock3,

 

You seem to be very hard to please.

 

Dierenger is currently 85-4 with 54 bonus pt. wins of which 29 were pins.  3 of those 4 losses came to 4X AA, 2X Finalist, 1X Champ Derek St. John.

 

Year by year:

 

2012-2013: 35-3------------21 B.P. wins(10 falls) NCAA-3rd

2013-2014: 32-1------------19 B.P. wins(12 falls) NCAA-1st

2014-2015: 18-0------------14 B.P. wins(7 falls)  NCAA-?

 

Other than Stieber, who deserves higher praise?  There may be an argument for Delgado but he basically hasn't even wrestled this season.  Cox and Gwiz both lost at the All Star Classic(I count it even if the Metcalf haters do not).  I don't see any other resume that clearly puts someone at the top of their respective weight class.

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On the Ohio State side of things, If you assume at this point that the likelihood of Jordan, Tomasello or Snyder getting into the finals to be around 25% each, there is about a 75% chance one of them will get there.  I think 25% is reasonable for each wrestler.

 

Even if you drop each tOSU wrestler to about a one out of six chance, it's still about a 50-50 chance one of them makes the finals.

 

Adding the other top freshmen into the mix, I'd say that there is a very good chance of a freshman finalist, and a reasonable chance of a freshman champion.  

 

Oops - To be precise:  If the three have equal probabilities of .25 then the probability of at least one of them winning is

 

1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 - 3/(4*4) + 1/(4*4*4) = .578125 or only 57.81%

Edited by robnh

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