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emk1

States with most qualifiers

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I was unaware that four kids from the State of South Dakota qualified. That is impressive given their participation numbers. There could be other low participation states that performed well too. Good sign of the potential the Jackrabbits have if they can corner in state recruits.

 

Also interesting that, statistically, it is easier for a high school wrestler from California, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania to go on and qualify for the NCAA Division-I Championship than it is for them to win a state title.

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I was unaware that four kids from the State of South Dakota qualified. That is impressive given their participation numbers. There could be other low participation states that performed well too. Good sign of the potential the Jackrabbits have if they can corner in state recruits.

 

Also interesting that, statistically, it is easier for a high school wrestler from California, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania to go on and qualify for the NCAA Division-I Championship than it is for them to win a state title.

Storley and Kokesh must have been a scary 1-2 punch for any Class B South Dakota middleweight trying to decide what weightclass to go that year.

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The only way to look at it per capita is to look at it as the number of high school athletes. I used the NFHS reports on the number of high school wrestlers in each of the states listed above. Obviously, it would be better to have the high school the national qualifier attended, rather than the hometown they now claim, but that will only create a minor difference.

 

State _ Qualifiers _ HS Participation _ Qualifier per HS Wrestlers

PA _ 48 _ 9,760 _ 203

OH _ 38 _ 11,430 _ 301

NJ _ 30 _ 10,276 _ 343

IA _ 16 _ 6,773 _ 423

OK _ 6 _ 3,609 _ 602

IL _ 26 _ 16,022 _ 616

VA _ 11 _ 6,877 _ 625

MI _ 15 _ 10,179 _ 679

MO _ 10 _ 7,281 _ 728

CO _ 7 _ 5,170 _ 739

IN _ 9 _ 7,512 _ 835

FL _ 9 _ 8,912 _ 990

OR _ 5 _ 4,956 _ 991

MN _ 8 _ 8,236 _ 1,030

WI _ 5 _ 7,147 _ 1,429

CA _ 19 _ 27,462 _ 1,445

NY _ 9 _ 13,668 _ 1,519

NC _ 6 _ 9,584 _ 1,597

TX _ 5 _ 11,352 _ 2,270

 

I assume the fourth column is HS wrestlers/qualifier rather than the other way around.

Not sure what you're trying to show with this.  That the quality of wrestling in PA is high despite relatively low participation numbers?  

PA has the highest ratio of hs wrestlers/ qualifier.By far.  They don't have enough qualifiers to have the highest per capita qualifiers.  That would be Iowa.  Apparently, Iowa also wins the per capita HS wrestler crown.

Edited by Plasmodium

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Pennsylvania gets 9,760 of the best wrestlers chosen from 13 million people

Iowa gets their 6,773 chosen from 3 million. Of course Pennsylvania will have more qualifiers

 

If you look at the all time history of the sport lil' Iowa has more than held its own with qualifiers,All Americans, Champions.

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again... per capita includes old ladies in nursing homes and newborn babies... neither of which are relevant when discussing the relative strength of a state as a feeder for division 1 collegiate wrestling. 

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I assume the fourth column is HS wrestlers/qualifier rather than the other way around.

Correct, participation divided by qualifiers.

 

Not sure what you're trying to show with this. That the quality of wrestling in PA is high despite relatively low participation numbers?

PA has the highest ratio of hs wrestlers/ qualifier.By far. They don't have enough qualifiers to have the highest per capita qualifiers. That would be Iowa. Apparently, Iowa also wins the per capita HS wrestler crown.

It seems strange, to me, to judge performance based on the number of people that live in a state rather than the number of people that choose to participate in the sport. Talent density seems to be the chief metric for the depth of a state.

 

Tough to get guys on college rosters, let along qualify for nationals, if they have never wrestled before.

 

It may be true that Iowa has the largest number of participants per person who lives in the state. I admit, I have not checked the data on it.

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Pennsylvania gets 9,760 of the best wrestlers chosen from 13 million people

Iowa gets their 6,773 chosen from 3 million. Of course Pennsylvania will have more qualifiers

 

If you look at the all time history of the sport lil' Iowa has more than held its own with qualifiers,All Americans, Champions.

 

 

 

If we lined up all of our PA qualifiers against all of your Iowa qualifiers in a Battle Royale I'm pretty sure we'd dominate. Lol. 

 

:-)

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Correct, participation divided by qualifiers.

 

 

It seems strange, to me, to judge performance based on the number of people that live in a state rather than the number of people that choose to participate in the sport. Talent density seems to be the chief metric for the depth of a state.

 

Tough to get guys on college rosters, let along qualify for nationals, if they have never wrestled before.

 

It may be true that Iowa has the largest number of participants per person who lives in the state. I admit, I have not checked the data on it.

I don't know why that is strange to you.

Iowa is a small state with a strong wrestling culture.  Their per capita qualifiers means that their culture is behind producing the most disproportionate share of the best wrestlers in the country.  They can be proud of that, along with the high ratio of wrestlers/students.  

Edited by Plasmodium

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So TBar I'm assuming you would pick the best qualifiers out of "your" more stocked pond to compete against little old Iowa correct? Pennsylvania indeed does have the best high school wrestling . Never argued that. Just saying comparing the two states is unfair. It would be like pairing Iowa's best 1A wrestling school against Iowa's best 3A school. The 3A school will win everytime because they are picking the best wrestlers out of a higher amount of people

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I don't know why that is strange to you.

Iowa is a small state with a strong wrestling culture.  Their per capita qualifiers means that their culture is behind producing the most disproportionate share of the best wrestlers in the country.  They can be proud of that, along with the high ratio of wrestlers/students.

Yes, Iowa has a great wrestling culture. I just looked at the data. They are second in the percentage of the state's total population that is currently participating in high school wrestling.

 

 

These are the top 10 states for highest percentage of their population as current high school wrestlers.

 

State Percent of Population - HS Wrestlers

 Nebraska 0.240

Iowa 0.218

 Wyoming 0.186

Alaska 0.183

Kansas 0.177

 South Dakota 0.157

 Minnesota 0.151

Idaho 0.144

 Montana 0.140

North Dakota 0.133

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Here is a spreadsheet with all the data anybody could ever need to make any type of argument you want.

 

Items I have included

 

the 2010 census data

the 2013/1024 NHSF participation data, both the number of schools and total number of wrestlers

calculated the number of wrestlers per school

calculated the number of schools based upon population

calculated the number of wrestlers based on population

 

you can sort on any column you wish and justify whatever argument you want.

 

 

 

wrestling stats.xlsx

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Okay, people can choose which one is more important to them. I really didn't think it would elicit a debate. I have no dog in the fight.

 

 

 

Iowa - State where a resident of the state has the best statistical chance of qualifying for the NCAA championship.

 

Pennsylvania - State where a high school wrestler has the best statistical chance of qualifying for the NCAA championship.

 

New Jersey - State where a high school wrestling state champion has the best chance, statistically, of qualifying for the NCAA championship.

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Yes, Iowa has a great wrestling culture. I just looked at the data. They are second in the percentage of the state's total population that is currently participating in high school wrestling.

 

 

These are the top 10 states for highest percentage of their population as current high school wrestlers.

 

State Percent of Population - HS Wrestlers

 Nebraska 0.240

Iowa 0.218

 Wyoming 0.186

Alaska 0.183

Kansas 0.177

 South Dakota 0.157

 Minnesota 0.151

Idaho 0.144

 Montana 0.140

North Dakota 0.133

Conclusion being that farm boys like to wrestle?

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So TBar I'm assuming you would pick the best qualifiers out of "your" more stocked pond to compete against little old Iowa correct? 

 

 

No. I would take our 48 against your 16 and see how it works out. 

:-)

Edited by TBar1977

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There are many factors to consider, population impact being one of them.  Another to consider that certainly makes an impact is the number of in state schools that have D1 wrestling.

In state tuition increases the opportunity for a wrestler to pursue D1 wrestling, and simply location.

PA has a tremendous number of state school, and even in state private schools, that give the PA hs wrestler a chance that many of the other top states (CA, NJ come to mind) do not.

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Jason, I think high 50's to high 60's over the last decade -

 

I have found a posting on the Pennlive Wrestlng Forum dated 3-18-2014 showed --- I believe pa's Per capita numbers were #1 last year

 

 

2014 NCAA wrestling qual. by home state

 

PA 63

 

OH 31

 

NJ 24

 

IL 21

 

NY 20

 

MI 16

 

IA 15

 

CA 13

 

VA 11

 

MN 10

 

AA's by State 1961 - 2013

 

Pennsylvania 531

 

Iowa 357

 

Ohio 332

 

Oklahoma 276

 

Illinois 253

 

California 253

 

New Jersey 220

 

New York 219

 

Michigan 187

Edited by RichB

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thank you, Pinnum and sockobuw!  I make the same post every year when this argument comes up.  Glad to see it is sinking in. 

 

(no matter how much the Iowa folks try to use "per capita")

 

Yet, New York is going backwards since creating Division II.  Guess we need a 3rd, and maybe a 4th, state champion.

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