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States with most qualifiers

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Why does the Iowa HS season end so soon? Always in February? 2-3-4 weeks before Pa.

 

I mean, we always hear it is Iowa farm boys dominating. About one year in five we might plow the first fields before states here in Southern Pa. Up North,not one year in ten. So what are wrestlers doing for a month?

Edited by RichB

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Why does the Iowa HS season end so soon? Always in February? 2-3-4 weeks before Pa.

 

I mean, we always hear it is Iowa farm boys dominating. About one year in five we might plow the first fields before states here in Southern Pa. Up North,not one year in ten. So what are wrestlers doing for a month?

Must have something to do with getting the corn planted. Either that or getting prepped for all of their "per capita" rebuttals in March.

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Back of the napkin math...

 

1) 6,773 high school wrestlers divided by four grades is about 1,693 kids per grade. So that many kids graduate a year that have wrestled. Figure that is constant for 60 years to make a round number for the 80 year average life expectancy in Iowa and you get about 101,000 people. 101,000 is about 3.25 percent of the 3,107,000 people in Iowa.

 

2) There are about 500,000 K-12 students in Iowa for about 38,000 a grade. Since most kids attend school and are in their grade based on age each year old should be somewhere around 38,000 people. Of those, 1,693 in each grade will wrestle for about 4.5 percent of all kids being high school wrestlers. There are about 3.1MM people in Iowa. If they are evenly distributed at each age until the average life expectancy of 80 years in Iowa, that gives us about 38,000 people which reconciles with the number per age in school. So if we use the participation rate in school and assume it is constant over the years as the age groups seem constant, the 4.5 percent of the total population would be about 140,000 ex wrestlers in Iowa.

 

Guessing somewhere between four to five people out of every 100 people in Iowa were wrestlers and probably somewhere between six to ten percent were supporters (family, friends, manager, etc) of wrestlers that at least have a loose understand of the sport if they don't know it well.

Wow. Good effort.

 

It's all about getting the youth and then coaching them up properly. Those dynamics differ from area to area and state to state. I don't see anything wrong with attempting to measure, and understand, it all across the country.

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Brands is starting to get it

 

Mejia- CA

Renteria- IL

Gross- MN

Kemerer- PA

Marinelli- OH

Paddock- NY

Stoll- MN

 

 

Add Kaleb Young - PA

 

Brands can't stay in Iowa and win more NCAA titles. It just would never work. He has to recruit outside his home state. And to be fair, Cael Sanderson recruits kids from outside of PA too. David Taylor, OH, Nickal, TX, McIntosh, CA, Nevills (and likely some of his younger brothers) CA some to mind. 

Edited by TBar1977

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To be even more fair:  Brands has not recently started recruiting outside Iowa.  He has starting this year:  Dziewa (PA), Evans (PA), Brooks (IL), Burak (CO), Telford (DE).  Off the top of my head:  Aaron Bradley (PA) stashed on a mission.  Tony Ramos from Illinois.  And some Metcalf guy from Michigan.

 

Penn State also has 2 starters this year from Utah and one from NJ,.

 

That said, it's important to lock down the better wrestlers from in-state (if nothing else, for depth) and add regional- and national-level talent where possible.

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Must have something to do with getting the corn planted. Either that or getting prepped for all of their "per capita" rebuttals in March.

lu-alum --Were you one of the other 4 guys in Prof Balapkins course on American Economic Development? Needed to understand farming for that one.

 

Here in Pa, a farmer cannot plow - then plant - right after the snow melts, the first couple feet of ground becomes mud that tractors stick in.

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Every year PA has the most qualifiers, often by ridiculous margins, and immediately people start parsing population data. It is comical.

 

Here is all anyone needs to know. Wrestling exists in places where the care takers of the sport make it important enough that young boys learned how to wrestle and enjoy the benefits that come with wrestling. Anywhere you have wrestling it is because men made sure to teach their boys how to wrestle. It is that simple. Iowa has places like this, and Iowa has places where wrestling isn't quite as important. Same for PA, NY, NJ, Ohio and any other place.

 

Pennsylvania just has more wrestling, because more people here made it a priority for their sons top wrestle. That's it. If Iowa had 3 times as many people who cared about wrestling as PA did, then they'd have 3x more qualifiers than PA. But it is the other way around for one simple easy to understand reason. Pennsylvania is the state that has 3 times as many folks who made wrestling their sporting priority. That is how we got to 48 and Iowa got to 16. Thera er more people here promoting wrestling at the youth level. People can assign all the varied reasons they want for why this is the case, but it doesn't change the simple fact that we have 3 times as many.

 

It is the same reason they beg Penn State to be in National duals. They think 3x times as many fans will show up. Why? Because we have 3x as many people involved in wrestling here.

The data says otherwise. California has a lot more people involved in wrestling than PA. Iowa has a significantly larger percentage of their population involved with wrestling that PA. As a result, you're more likely to interact with wrestlers in everyday life if you're in Iowa than in PA.

 

I think Pennsylvania's success has a multitude of factors but two in particular, I think of would be:

 

PSAC schools - I would venture to say that a state's development has a high correlation with the number of schools that produce a large percentage of the state's educators that offer wrestling. While state flagships get all the attention, I think it is often the lower tier D1, D2, or D3 programs that are vital to the health of the state's ecosystem. If you're not getting enough accomplished ex wrestlers into mentorship of youth and high school kids you're not going to see a lot of success. (I would bet the Iowa D3 schools are a great asset as well as the school formerly known as Iowa Teachers College. This is also likely a big issue in California where they have many large state schools and few opportunities to compete in four year programs and no D3 programs.)

 

Wrestlers per square mile - PA is number 10 (NJ is #1) in wrestlers per square mile. This makes it easier to find competition, training partners, and a community of wrestlers with less travel required. While you're more likely to find a higher percentage of the population as wrestlers in places like Nebraska, Iowa, and Wyoming, they are vast states that would require a lot more travel.

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I think the big city PA situation (and big cities in many states) is similar to Detroit, whose public schools don't offer wrestling.  A shame.  I see so many kids who could be great wrestlers in the D but nothing is offered to them.  There are some clubs and a Beat the Streets program, but more should be offered.  However, Detroit Public Schools are in a financial mess and may never climb out of the hole--adding wrestling programs is the least of their worries at present.

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Pennsylvania's sporting priorities are still football and basketball, by a large margin, no? PA is great at wrestling, especially when compared to the rest of the county, but its not like the state lives and breaths wrestling. my cousins are teenagers from Hershey and they have no connection or involvement in the sport. they are huge lacrosse guys though and the older is playing at a PA college. i keep in touch with a handful of friends from high school in NJ who graduated from Lehigh in 03 (one of whom was my HS wrestling teammate) and none of them would know if Lehigh even has a team. 

 

anyway, i dont know what those anecdotes are worth but it seems silly to brag about how good a state's high school wrestling is when the sport is still so far down the sporting totem pole no matter where you are.

 

anyway, i encourage PA to continue it's wrestling dominance and built on its great heritage and legacy in the sport. a rising tide lift all boats. 

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A factor that hasn't been discussed is school size. Pennyslvania and Iowa are similar in that both have quite a few communities that have one or two high schools that I'm guessing are between 700 and 1500 students. The population of both states are spread fairly evenly throughout the state. Conversely while California has a much larger population, much of the state is sparsely populated. I'll guess most of the high schools in CA have more than 1500 students. Some will be really large schools with 3,000-5,000 students.

 

Other factors not considered are:

1. Quality and quantity of feeder programs for high schools

2. Salaries for high school wrestling coaches.

 

A head wrestling coach in the Oklahoma City Public Schools gets a. $5,500 stipend, however the quality of the junior high wrestling teams aren't very good. Conversely Perry (250 students) and Tuttle (probably 400 students) are the predominant 3a and 4a wrestling programs. Both have great community support, excellent feeder programs, and well paid head wrestling coaches.

 

There is definitely a "wrestling culture" in certain areas of the US and throughout the world.

Why are Iran and Turkey wrestling powers, but Iraq hasn't been even in peaceful times. Russian wrestling is dominated by the Caucaus Mountain region, who dominate at world level in freestyle.

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PSAC schools - I would venture to say that a state's development has a high correlation with the number of schools that produce a large percentage of the state's educators that offer wrestling. While state flagships get all the attention, I think it is often the lower tier D1, D2, or D3 programs that are vital to the health of the state's ecosystem. If you're not getting enough accomplished ex wrestlers into mentorship of youth and high school kids you're not going to see a lot of success. (I would bet the Iowa D3 schools are a great asset as well as the school formerly known as Iowa Teachers College. This is also likely a big issue in California where they have many large state schools and few opportunities to compete in four year programs and no D3 programs.)

 

 

I agree with this. But this goes along with what I wrote above. Those schools do not offer wrestling if wrestling hasn't been a part of the fabric of PA athletics for many years. And it isn't part of the fabric of PA unless there are more people invested in wrestling here than other places, and in a consistent and continual way. 

 

The argument is sort of silly. The places that produce the most qualifiers are the places with the most people really invested in the sport. You did not put it that way, but whether you want to put it that way or not this is what your words actually mean. 

 

If people really wanted wrestling at School X, Y, or Z, and wanted it more than they wanted some other sport, then there'd be wrestling there. Well, this describes PA. 

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I think the big city PA situation (and big cities in many states) is similar to Detroit, whose public schools don't offer wrestling.  A shame.  I see so many kids who could be great wrestlers in the D but nothing is offered to them.  There are some clubs and a Beat the Streets program, but more should be offered.  However, Detroit Public Schools are in a financial mess and may never climb out of the hole--adding wrestling programs is the least of their worries at present.

I explained that all Pittsburgh public schools have wrestling, and that a fair number of Philadelphia schools have wrestling. Yet you post that there is no wrestling in Pennsylvania big cities.

 

Why, Coach J, did you bother to post something with no facts?

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Pennsylvania's sporting priorities are still football and basketball, by a large margin, no? PA is great at wrestling, especially when compared to the rest of the county, but its not like the state lives and breaths wrestling. my cousins are teenagers from Hershey and they have no connection or involvement in the sport. they are huge lacrosse guys though and the older is playing at a PA college. i keep in touch with a handful of friends from high school in NJ who graduated from Lehigh in 03 (one of whom was my HS wrestling teammate) and none of them would know if Lehigh even has a team. 

 

anyway, i dont know what those anecdotes are worth but it seems silly to brag about how good a state's high school wrestling is when the sport is still so far down the sporting totem pole no matter where you are.

 

anyway, i encourage PA to continue it's wrestling dominance and built on its great heritage and legacy in the sport. a rising tide lift all boats. 

 

I may be mistaken, but I believe the PIAA state wrestling tournament out-draws the basketball tourney.

 

 

Edit:  Just pulled some data from newspaper articles.  Wrestling out-draws basketball in total attendance, even though it does not offer boy/girl delineation and has half the number of divisions (AA/AAA v. a four-class system).

 

2015 Wrestling (source Allentown Morning Call):

"A is for attendance, which took a tick up this year to 45,453 for the combined tournaments. That’s an encouraging sign, especially given Thursday’s awful weather which put a snowy damper on the crowds. What’s strange is that Class AA session attendance is only a few hundred behind Class AAA despite the enormous size differential in schools. AA’s small towns and rural areas may actually have more dedicated and loyal fans."

 

That is 8 sessions (4 each for AA & AAA) at an average of 5,682 per session.

 

2013 Basketball (source Pittsburgh TribLive.com):

"The state high school basketball championships returned to Hershey this weekend and so did the fans.

The two-day PIAA event at Giant Center had an attendance increase of more than 10,000 over last year's championships, which were held at Penn State's Bryce Jordan Center. This year's paid attendance was 24,582."

 

2013 (Giant Center): 24,582

2012 (BJC):  14,421

source:  http://blogs.ldnews.com/snyderemarks/2013/03/26/piaa-benefits-from-return-to-hershey/

 

That is 8 games (boys & girls for A, AA, AAA, and AAAA), played in double-headers.  The 2013 tournament had an average of 6,146 per session.  It appears that the PIAA tried to use the Bryce-Jordan Center at Penn State, which is a little more centrally located than Hershey.  Here are recent year figures:

 

2009 (BJC): 18,620,

2008 (BJC): 22,561

2007 (BJC): 30,340

2006 (Giant Center):  33,001

source:  http://www.pasportsfever.com/?ArticleNumber=1237655750

 

I don't believe basketball has EVER out-drawn wrestling.  

Edited by lu_alum

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thats good stuff but i dont think it represents the average PA resident's interest in wrestling vs basketball or football. i did a google trend analysis of the 3 sports in Pennsylvania and this is what i got.

 

screenshot-2015-03-14-at-2-16-48-pm.png

football and basketball crush wrestling, just like everywhere else. im not happy about it but i dont think PA is such an outlier that wrestling is somehow more popular than the 2 most popular sports in america.

 

I looked up some other states and the trends are basically the same, except for Iowa which according to google, has more interest in wrestling than football, at least during football's offseasons. Google does let you drill down to metro area but nothing changed for Philly or Pittsburgh. However, Johnstown-Altoona does come pretty close to matching wrestling interest to football and basketball. 

 

If only there were more Johnstowns and Altoonas in this country. 

Edited by Jaroslav Hasek

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I explained that all Pittsburgh public schools have wrestling, and that a fair number of Philadelphia schools have wrestling. Yet you post that there is no wrestling in Pennsylvania big cities.

 

Why, Coach J, did you bother to post something with no facts?

I never said PA has no big city wrestling.  Pittsburgh (which at 300,000 people is barely a "big" city) has it and there are "a fair number" in Philly; I would argue that the heartbeat of PA wrestling is not big cities but smaller communities.  If you want to use Pittsburgh as a "big city," then contrast Ohio, the second big state in terms of D-I NQs; in Ohio, you have a lot of talent in urban areas such as Cleveland, Akron (throw in Canton to the triangle), Toledo, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus (though not so much in the city proper as the burbs).  My point is that Michigan trends more closely with PA than a state like Ohio in terms of where you find wrestling.

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for what its worth, Pittsburgh is the 22nd biggest metropolitan area in the US with a population of 2.36M according to the US Office of Management and Budget. Cleveland is 29th with 2.06M. Philly is 6th with 6.03M and Detroit is 14th with 4.29.

 

not really sure how that factors in but i was curious and looked up there numbers.

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for what its worth, Pittsburgh is the 22nd biggest metropolitan area in the US with a population of 2.36M according to the US Office of Management and Budget. Cleveland is 29th with 2.06M. Philly is 6th with 6.03M and Detroit is 14th with 4.29.

 

not really sure how that factors in but i was curious and looked up there numbers.

Good info, but man, we must be effing in need of a life!  Other Ohio wrestling cities and populations:

Cleveland (390,000; 3.5 million metro)

Toledo (290,000; 650,000 metro)

Columbus (822,000; 1.9 million metro)

Cincinnati ( 296,000; 2.1 million metro)

Akron (200,000; 703,000 metro)

Canton (73,000; 404,000 metro)

Dayton (141,000; 800,000 metro)

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I explained that all Pittsburgh public schools have wrestling, and that a fair number of Philadelphia schools have wrestling. Yet you post that there is no wrestling in Pennsylvania big cities.

 

Why, Coach J, did you bother to post something with no facts?

 

 

RichB, the attached link is consistent with what you wrote, but I think some context is needed.

 

I found a link for the Philadelphia Public Wrestling standings. While it does have a number of schools listed with wrestling, there are many more public schools in Philadelphia that are not listed here. 

 

http://www.pa-wrestling.com/hs/leagues/phillypublic/standings.htm

 

Also, while they may offer wrestling, they are essentially on a statewide or even local level non competitive with suburban or rural schools. I honestly can't remember the last wrestler at PIAA's from a Philadelphia Public School. To get even one handful of kids (maybe even to get 1 kid) we might have to go back several decades. 

Edited by TBar1977

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for what its worth, Pittsburgh is the 22nd biggest metropolitan area in the US with a population of 2.36M according to the US Office of Management and Budget. Cleveland is 29th with 2.06M. Philly is 6th with 6.03M and Detroit is 14th with 4.29.

 

not really sure how that factors in but i was curious and looked up there numbers.

Pittsburgh wrestling is largely suburban. Over the years, I've known a large number of wrestler that would tell you they were from Pittsburgh, I'm not sure any were from the city of.

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The per capita argument is just a moot argument. What value is there in including kids that do not wrestle or populations of elderly.

Look at the number of participants.

http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/PDF/2013-14_Participation_Survey_PDF.pdf, page 9 or 61 on Pdf page

http://www.nwcaonline.com/nwcawebsite/docs/default-source/default-document-library/male-participation88d5cadf5d666416a2f2ff0000cb9c62.pdf?sfvrsn=0

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The per capita argument is just a moot argument. What value is there in including kids that do not wrestle or populations of elderly.

Look at the number of participants.

http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/PDF/2013-14_Participation_Survey_PDF.pdf, page 9 or 61 on Pdf page

http://www.nwcaonline.com/nwcawebsite/docs/default-source/default-document-library/male-participation88d5cadf5d666416a2f2ff0000cb9c62.pdf?sfvrsn=0

there's value in looking at all the data. looking at NQs/HS wrestlers tells you one thing, NQs/population tells you another. 

 

but is all moot in the sense of being an academic exercise.

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The population that wrestles is the most important number and no one has analyzed that yet.

Do you think the USA Indoor speed skating team forum compares dominance in Denver vs Florida

Edited by jstock

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