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wrestlingnerd

Mizzou, Iowa, tOSU: Who did seeding help the most?

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Mizzou, IA, tOSU: 10 qualifiers each.

Mizzou: three #1 seeds.

tOSU: Has Logie Bear and three freshmen who score a lot.

Iowa: 10 legitimate AA threats.

 

If Mizzou wrestles to seeds, it will be tough to beat them. If Iowa really gets 8 AAs, don’t they have to win? If tOSU's top kids show up and score a bunch, they could rack up enough points to get it done.

 

What a setup!

 

In seeding, I think Mizzou got helped the most, then Iowa, then tOSU.

 

MIZZOU

 

125: Waters 1. Good. In his side, avoids Garrett, Dance, Gilman, Klimara, Conaway. Toughest path to the finals is Youtsey/Petrov, Peters/injured Delgado, Boyle/Tomasello. An injured Delgado who has not wrestled well all year and a hot but inexperienced freshman whom Waters already beat is a good draw. It couldn’t have turned out better for Waters.

 

133: Synon unseeded. Neutral. As a no-seed, facing the 11th seed (Sabatello of Purdue) in the first round is pretty good. The 12-16 seeds are: Dicamillo/UVA, Brewer/OU, Bruno/Michigan, Soto/UTC, McGuire/KSU. I would rather face Sabatello than Dicamillo, Brewer (got hosed on seeding), or Bruno, frankly, so think it worked out about as well as it could've.

 

141: Mayes 3. He got about as much of a gift as possible for a top 4 guy. He has a tough first match with Spisak/UVA, by no means a slouch, after a hard cut (and Mayes cuts harder than most). But after that, it's Dardanes and Port instead of Carter and Stieber. None of them are slouches, but I'm pretty sure Mayes is not complaining.

 

149: Houdashelt 1. Honestly, this is also as much of a gift as 141. How Tsirtsis, who avenged his only loss to very highly ranked Sorensen (4 seed but #1 for a while during the season), is 2 and Houdashelt, who lost to Kindig (unseeded, with 4 losses) is 1 is beyond me. But whatever. His toughest path to the finals is some combination of Richardson/ODU or Moreno/ISU and Sorenson or Villalonga/Beitz, all of whom he's beaten. He avoids Tsirtsis and Habat, both of whom he has yet to wrestle this year, as well as Clagon, Kindig, and HStieber (one of these guys is going to catch fire at some point in the tournament, and Houdashelt is out of their harm's way).

 

157: Lavallee 9. Bad. Lavallee sees Brascetta of VT first. Brascetta only has 12 matches but he is one hell of a wrestler and absolutely capable of beating Lavallee even if not 100%. The question is whether he's closer to 50% than 100%.... If Lavallee gets by Brascetta, then he has Boyle/Hernandez (winnable) and if he gets past them, then IMart pounds him.

 

165: England unseeded. Bad. England, one of the 165-184 Mizzou guys with the big cut, has to wrestle an extra match, the first right after weigh-ins against Tyrel White and then 29-3 Tristan Warner/ODU. Tough way to start a tournament. If he makes it, he probably gets Taylor Walsh, not exactly the funnest guy to wrestle when you're tired or sucked out.

 

174: Eblen 4. Good. He is on Kokesh's side, which is bad, but if he gets to the semis, he's done his job anyway. In exchange, he avoids: Brown, Evans (who beat him), Storley (who is practically interchangeable with Brown and Evans), and Epperly. He avoids 3 of the 4 B1G 174 guys who all have a legit shot to get to the finals and has Crutchmer (whom he beat, albet in OT) and Butler (who's tough but no Brown/Evans/Storley) before the semis.

 

184: Miklus unseeded. Not bad. He's obviously going to face someone tough as a no-seed, so it's hard to call Thomas/Penn a particularly bad draw. It could've been a LOT worse at 184. Thomas is good, but Miklus can beat him from the feet if he's on. If he passes that test, then he gets Brown/Lehigh, the 7 seed.

 

197: Cox 1. Good. He gets Snyder instead of Gadson/McIntosh on his way to the finals. Snyder is tough, but he did just lose to McIntosh who is not half the rider Cox is and who, like Cox, has a great low shot that worked on Snyder. And Cox lost to Gadson last year. Snyder is a beast, but I'd rather have to go through a freshman who placed second in his conference and has 3 losses than the guy who beat him and has 2 losses (MM) or the guy with only one loss who has beaten me before

 

HWT: Mellon 11. Not bad. He gets the winner of Ng/Harvard vs. Butler/Stanford, an extra match, for his first go. Facing a tired nerd as your first match is about as good as it gets for an 11 seed.

Getting Coon 6 next is not the end of the world. I don't think Mellon beats 1-8 or 9 anyway.

 

IOWA

 

125: Gilman 6. Not bad to mildly good. Whether he got seeded 3 or 4 or 6 or 7 isn't that important in this weight class. Much more important is who's in his bracket. He gets Garrett (whom he beat) and Dance (who beat him in OT). He avoids Waters (who beat him), Tomasello (who just beat him but he has beaten several times in the past), Boyle (who beat him), and Delgado (granted, he's injured, but he is Delgado after all). In exchange for avoiding all those guys, he gets Conaway, who just wrestled him very tough, in the second round.

 

133: Clark 3. Good. Clark lost to JDJ (avenged at B1G), Richards (avenged), CDardanes 2x, Gulibon. Being on the opposite side of 3 of those 4 guys is pretty damn good, especially CD. He probably gets either Taylor or Gulibon in the semis as opposed to most likely CD. 

 

141; Dziewa 5. Good. It's never good to be on Logie's side, but then again, it's not like Dziewa is chompin' at the bit to face Port or Mayes, who nearly double-legged him to death, either. Four out of the five guys who beat Dziewa are on the other side: Rodrigues/IL (avenged), Ashnault, NDardanes (avenged), Mayes (Logie is the 5th). Most importantly, Dziewa has a fairly clear path to the quarters, where he gets Carter, which is about as much as he could've expected given the weight. Dziewa does have a test in the second round against Joey Ward/UNC. Dziewa is a better wrestler, but Ward might be better on the feet; however, I expect Dziewa to win.

 

149: Sorensen 4. Good. Sorenson lost to Habat and Tsirtsis (beat him the first time), so he’s avoiding two guys he lost to and gets Houdashelt, who also beat him. All three losses were one-pointers: 2-1 vs. Hou, 3-2 vs. Ha, 3-2 TB win and 2-1 loss vs T.  If I’m Iowa, I want Houdashelt over Habat or Tsirtsis in the semis. Not only are T and Habat more proven at the Big Dance, most importantly, Sorensen has a shot to knock a #1-seeded Mizzou guy out of the semis. That is huge. If he’s going to make the finals, that’s the best way to do it (HStieber is in my view very unlikely to do so and Mizzou appears better positioned overall anyway). This is a HUGE semis matchup, probably the biggest for team race purposes.

 

157: Kelly unseeded. Bad. Kelly vs. Demas 6. Demas beat Kelly comfortably 5-2 this year and is simply the better wrestler. And if Kelly somehow gets past Demas, he has to face Murphy/Mich, who beat him even worse 7-2. Silver lining: Kelly has a shot to knock Demas out of the championship bracket right out of the gate, which would be big for team race purposes.

 

165: Moore unseeded. Good. Moore gets Harger 7 first. Normally, getting the 7 seed as a no-seed is a bad draw, but Moore avenged an early season loss 4-2 in OT most recently. He did then wrestle like absolute dog crap after that to end the season, but Moore can beat Harger. If he does, he gets Wilson/Stanford 10 next, which is about as good as it gets for a no-seed in the second round. Most of the guys he lost to are on the other side: Dieringer, Morse, BoJo, Sulzer, Palacio, and Robinson/Purdue. If I’m Brands, I’m spending a lot of time making sure Moore shows up because he could be a huge boost to Iowa’s title push with a few wins. He absolutely cannot go 2 and Q like at B1G. That was an abortion.

 

174: Evans 3. Neutral to slightly good. Brown has gotten the upper hand this season but if I’m the Stache, I like that Kokesh is not on my side. The tradeoff is getting Storley in the quarters, but Stache beat him twice in a row (albeit, very close). It’s a pretty close trade-off. For team purposes, it’s good Eblen is on Kokesh’s side (tOSU is irrelevant for that at 174). If Evans beats Storley and then misses the finals, at least a Mizzou guy will likely miss it too, and then they face each other in the consies, where Evans has the upper hand (beat him comfortably 4-1 at the Nat. Duals).

 

184: Brooks 9. Bad to brutal. Brooks lost to Dechow, Boyd, Abounader, Dean, and McCutcheon. All but McC, who is the worst of those five losses are on Brooks’ side of the bracket. Barring upsets, in the second round, he gets B1G champ Abounader, then #1 Dean, then 4 Dechow in one of the roughest paths to the finals.

 

197: Burak 6. Neutral. It’s hard to get a great draw if you’re Burak, because he is close but not quite there against the top 5 guys minus the Snyder win under somewhat anomalous circumstances. Gadson has a tendency to wrestle down to his competition at times and is not as dynamic as Cox, MM, Schiller, or Snyder from the feet, so if you’re going to face anyone in the quarters, it might as well be him. Burak also has not faced Gadson this season, while he’s lost to all the other top guys except Snyder.

 

HWT. Telford 3. Neutral. On the one hand, he avoids Gwiz until the finals. On the other, he probably has to beat the only two guys he lost to this season to make the finals: Coon 6 in the quarters, then McMullan 2 in the semis. Coon was an OT loss, and both losses to McM were 1-pointers, one an OT affair (Telford beat McM once 4-2 before McM avenged that).

 

 

tOSU

 

125: Tomasello 4. Good. One of the better Buckeye draws. He was going to face an absolute hammer in this super-deep weight one way or the other, so it might as well be Waters, to try to inflict a big blow to Mizzou’s title hopes and give a big boost to tOSU’s. Other than Waters, the top guys NT lost to are on the other side: Gilman (avenged) and Dance. And Peters will face Waters before NT anyway, so it’s as clear a path to the semis as possible. Boyle 5 is in the way, but frankly, he feels overseeded at 5 which is good for NT, who really helped himself by winning B1Gs.

 

133: JDJ 4. Good. He couldn’t go any higher than 4 and was not likely to drop below 6 anyway, so he was going to end up in a pretty similar position no matter what. He most likely isn’t making the finals, so the goal is to get to the semis. In his path are probably Brewer (absolute shaft of a seed, which is bad for him and JDJ) in the second, then Richards in the quarters (I don’t believe they’ve wrestled this year). It could’ve been worse. And then, in the semis, he would face CDardanes, who beat him narrowly 3-2. Other than losing to CD and Clark, who would’ve been a semis match anyway, JDJ lost to Beckman, Delvecchio (WTF?), and has traded matches with Gulibon. All but CD are on the other side. Brewer is a pretty tough second round draw, but JDJ pinned him last year and looked good doing it.

 

141: Logie Bear 1. All draws are excellent for the Bear. If the hapless Dziewa wrestles out of his mind again and somehow gets to the semis over Carter (hard to imagine), Logan will have the ultimate satisfaction of denying a Hawkeye by tech or stick to help the team race cause.

 

149: HStieber unseeded. Bad. I really don’t think HS deserved a seed. But he also didn’t deserve to face the winner of Habat vs. Kindig in round 2 after Ruggirello, who is nowhere near Hunter’s level but also known to be pretty physical, especially on top. Not the best guy to face first round with two bad wings. If he’s well enough to somehow make it past Haba/Kinding, then (with all due respect to Pantaleo, who is a very impressive freshman) he should make the semis.

 

157: Demas 6. Decent. He was going to face an absolute stud in the quarters no matter what, and whether it’s Ness (like it probably will be) or IMart or BReal or Green is immaterial. He has a chance to knock a Hawkeye he’s already beaten out of the way to aid the team cause while advancing, which is why I call the draw decent. He has to be on though. Despite the B1Gs, Kelly is not a slouch and can beat Demas on his best day if Demas is not on. That would be a disaster for team reasons.

 

165: BoJo 5. Bad. He killed his finals chances by losing to IJo at B1Gs. After watching that, I am now convinced BoJo cannot beat Ringer. Sulzer is a physical beast too, and BoJo will have his hands full getting past him in the quarters. Before that, he has to beat Palacio, whom he should beat comfortably but is probably the most dangerous wrestler in the entire weight class to have a lead against.

 

174: Martin 10. Neutral. I don’t think he gets past Epperly in round 2 and if he does, he is definitely not beating Brow in the quarters. But he is a 10 seed after all.

 

184: Courts unseeded. Bad. There are a few worse draws, but Hayden Zillmer round 1 is pretty bad. Zillmer is very tough and responsible for one of Dean’s two losses. He beat Pfarr twice. Courts is losing his first match.

 

197: Snyder 4. Neutral. Being on the same side as Cox is bad, but he hasn’t yet faced Cox and avoids all his losses on his side of the bracket: MM, Gadson, Burak. That’s more than a fair trade for a guy who was going to be 4 at best and might’ve had to avenge two losses in a row to get to the finals.

 

HWT: Tavanello unseeded. Neutral. Faces Walz/VT 10 in the first. There are easier matches, but for a guy who’s 13-11 and unseeded, it’s totally par for the course. If he wins, he gets Cabell/UNI 7 or Black/IL.

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JDJ presents a style mismatch for brewer.

 

That's why I said he got a good draw. Brewer when in top form has the tools to beat him though. But I don't think he will.

 

Regarding your other post, I disagree. It's more important to make sure your top guys who have a legit shot at the finals get there (or at least deep into the consolations). I really thought BoJo was 50/50 or better to make the finals. Now I really don't see it at all. He's one of the guys that has to kill it at NCAAs for the team to have a chance. Courts could go 2 and Q. Hunter got shafted.

 

The only Buckeyes I can really say got good draws are NT and JDJ. (And Logie, I suppose, since draws don't matter to him.)

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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HWT: Mellon 11. Not bad. He gets the winner of Ng/Harvard vs. Butler/Stanford, an extra match, for his first go. Facing a tired nerd as your first match is about as good as it gets for an 11 seed.

 

 

 

Ok.....that was damn funny

Edited by fudge_tunnel

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In my opinion I think the bulk of the national title comes down to two weights.  125 & 197.  Consider all teams have a consistent tournament, here is why.

 

MO and tOSU potentially meet in the semi's in both of those weights.  Delgado is the only likely one who disrupts that. Even if the two teams meet, both teams need to punch both of their wrestlers into the finals. Whichever team 

 

If MO gets two in the finals and they should have enough points from everyone else to where that puts them over the edge.  I think they have five solid All-American shots.  If they get those two weight and Houdashelt they win.

 

If tOSU gets both of the semifinal winds it is probably over.  Logie is going to win it and rack up bonus.  You put those three in there, combined with AA Bo Jordan (possible finalist at that) and others points then nobody beats them.

 

If they split those weights I think it is Iowa's.  Iowa likely will have the most AA's.  If either Iowa or Missouri does not get at least two in the finals then I think Iowa takes.  

 

Obviously you can't count out Minnesota but quite a bit has to happen.  MO and tOSU need to have no more than one in the finals an Iowa needs to be off a little.  All scenarios which are very possible.  If that happens Minnesota steals it. 

 

The point spread is going to be close and 125 and 197 are the weights where the two potential NCAA team champs need guys to make the finals to win.  They meet each other  in the semi's no less. 

 

JMO

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His style is a pain for everyone. Am I wrong?

 

 

Most, but it's tailormade for a strong mat wrestler who is good at controlling ties from neutral like AJ Schopp. I'm not sure who's worse for JDJ, Dardanes or Schopp, and he will most likely see one of them in the semis if he gets that far.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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I see Iowa with 7-8 clear shots to the quarterfinals. Lots of advancement points to be had right there. And just a loss and win away from medal round, with more points. Their problem is top end strength. I am not sure 6-7 middle to lower AA's will be enough to win it all.

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