Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Flying-Tiger

Using Freestyle Results to Predict Folkstyle Results Redux

Recommended Posts

Just wanted to point out that Hamlin lost to Lofthouse in Freestyle in the off season and defeated him easily in Folk. Also, freestyle world beater Jason Chamberlain has lost already. Several outspoken posters argued with me continuously over the summer telling me how freestyle results are just as predictive in evaluating folk match ups. Well what can I say other then, IN YOUR FACE!!! :twisted:

 

 

On a more serious note, I will say the the best argument against my position; that all the best folk wrestlers end up being the best freestyle wrestlers does have merit. Burroughs, Varner and Scott were all elite in college. In the end, I think the key factor is that some guys skill set transfers more readily to free then others and as long as guys are mixing styles, there will always be confused results such as Lofthouse-Hamlin. Once they all focus on freestyle only, it seems that the college hierarchy is reestablished although not perfectly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Folkstyle results don't even predict folkstyle results, it's not like if you beat someone in folk it means you will always beat them. But probably 90% of the time you will. Same thing with freestyle. 90% of the time the better freestyle wrestler will be the better folkstyler wrestler. You can come up with 100 example of when it doesn't work out, anyone else can come up with 1000 times that it does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[highlight=#e1ebf2]"Several outspoken posters argued with me continuously over the summer telling me how freestyle results are just as predictive in evaluating folk match ups."[/highlight]

[highlight=#e1ebf2]

[/highlight]

As predictive as what? They are pretty predictive. Should we go ahead and list all of the matches where the winner in freestyle was also the winner in folk? I have a feeling my list will be much larger than yours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[highlight=#e1ebf2]"Several outspoken posters argued with me continuously over the summer telling me how freestyle results are just as predictive in evaluating folk match ups."[/highlight]

[highlight=#e1ebf2]

[/highlight]

As predictive as what? They are pretty predictive. Should we go ahead and list all of the matches where the winner in freestyle was also the winner in folk? I have a feeling my list will be much larger than yours.

 

Yo be fair, statistically speaking this would be correct. Although, this topic, and the reason behind it, is obviously those arguing that "Dake destroyed Taylor in freestyle, he would obviously beat him easily in folk".

 

That argument is obviously nonsense, or at least if you are rational/unbiased/and honest it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hammer, Taylor-Dake and Molinaro-Chamberlain generated a lot of discussion about this topic so you are in the clear minority that thinks this topic is stupid. Maybe it's not the subject?

 

 

Anklepicker, listing a bunch of matches with guys at completely different skill levels doesn't prove anything. Using freestyle results, Lofthouse should of defeated Hamlin yet Hamlin dominated. Dake should of destroyed Taylor yet it was a razer thin victory in folk, Chamberlain should be dominating 149 after defeating Molinaro and other big names in freestyle yet in the first month of the season he has a loss to last year's 7th place finisher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hammer, Taylor-Dake and Molinaro-Chamberlain generated a lot of discussion about this topic so you are in the clear minority that thinks this topic is stupid. Maybe it's not the subject?

 

 

Anklepicker, listing a bunch of matches with guys at completely different skill levels doesn't prove anything. Using freestyle results, Lofthouse should of defeated Hamlin yet Hamlin dominated. Dake should of destroyed Taylor yet it was a razer thin victory in folk, Chamberlain should be dominating 149 after defeating Molinaro and other big names in freestyle yet in the first month of the season he has a loss to last year's 7th place finisher.

 

I remember that unseeded 7th place finisher giving Molinaro all he can handle in the second round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The freestyle matches aren't any better or worse at predicting the winner of a folkstyle match than a previous folkstyle match. The great thing about wrestling is that each match is unique. Just because Dake barely beat Taylor in folk but dominated in free doesn't tell us much about the styles. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dake were to wrestle Taylor again in freestyle and barely beat him there too. Likewise, I wouldn't be surprised if when they wrestle again in folk Dake wins in a more convincing manner than OT rideouts. You just never know. You would have predicted Metcalf to dominate Caldwell in the 2009 NCAA finals based on their previous folkstyle results (afterall, he dominated in the All Star, and the spladle was a fluke, right?). And based on folkstyle results, Amuchastegui should have beaten Ruth last year at NCAAs, but he was dominated. Quentin Wright has had numerous matches throughout his career where the results have flip flopped, often dramatically. All you can really do is look at a match, look how the guys controlled the action, and make a prediction based on that. But the predictions don't always hold. And sometimes, you can look at a freestyle match and make a clear prediction that the loser of the freestyle match will win in folkstyle. When Cael Sanderson wrestled Les Gutches at the US Open in 2000, he was dominated him with takedowns, making him look silly. But Gutches got a turn, and then a nice 3 point move at the end to win. Everyone watching that match would predict Cael would have won a folkstyle match. But this wasn't the case with Taylor's losses to either Dake or Howe at the OTT. I would still predict Dake or Howe (who I know isn't wrestling this year) to beat Taylor in folk. Against Caldwell I still favor Taylor at this point, but will not be shocked to see otherwise. We just can't tell yet.

 

As for Dake and Taylor, their All Star match was just horrendous. Neither guy even so much as attempted anything. The only exciting exchange of the entire match was when Taylor got in on a leg and Dake somehow managed to not get scored on. But that was it. As for their freestyle match, Dake looked like he showed up to wrestle but Taylor didn't. Who knows why. Mentally out of it, fatigued, who knows. But it's now clear that whoever is going to win a match between these two guys is going to be the guy that really goes out of his way to impose his will on the other guy. I still favor Dake in this respect, but the result remains to be seen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just wanted to point out that Hamlin lost to Lofthouse in Freestyle in the off season and defeated him easily in Folk. Also, freestyle world beater Jason Chamberlain has lost already. Several outspoken posters argued with me continuously over the summer telling me how freestyle results are just as predictive in evaluating folk match ups. Well what can I say other then, IN YOUR FACE!!! :twisted:

 

 

On a more serious note, I will say the the best argument against my position; that all the best folk wrestlers end up being the best freestyle wrestlers does have merit. Burroughs, Varner and Scott were all elite in college. In the end, I think the key factor is that some guys skill set transfers more readily to free then others and as long as guys are mixing styles, there will always be confused results such as Lofthouse-Hamlin. Once they all focus on freestyle only, it seems that the college hierarchy is reestablished although not perfectly.

 

------

 

FT, I would agree with you on this, particularly FS in its current form. It is sufficiently different from folkstyle, making it hard to extrapolate too much.

 

The best folkstylers do often end up being the best FS, but not necessarily. But as you say, it is the transferring of certain skill sets that is important. FS will reward those with quickness, TD skills and defensive blocking. Conditioning and mat wrestling, while still important, will be less critical. Overaggressiveness and "funk" can be counterproductive.

 

Looking at Iowa's recent past, one can see that both Zadicks fared pretty well in FS. Bill was a World gold medalist, and Mike was an Olympian and World silver medalist. In folkstyle Mike's best finish was 3rd and Bill was a 1x champ. Mark Ironside, was extremely successful at ncaa, winning titles without a loss his jr and sr years and winning the Hodge. His style was more aggressive and didn't necessarily pay off in FS. More recently, one could look at Metcalf and Frayer. Metcalf's ncaa career was far superior to Frayer's, but as yet, FS success has been more difficult, and I think his style and skill set are better suited to folk (though he still has some years of FS yet to come).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I gotta agree with anklepicker and dsnc on this one. A freestyle result in the summer may not predict the winner in folkstyle in the fall, but I don't think it would be a better predictor if the summer match was in folkstyle. Heck, there are plenty of examples where wrestlers have lost to a guy in the early rounds and then destroyed them in the consis of the same tournament! So by that logic folkstyle matches are not a good predictor of folkstyle results

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And like I said before, it's not as simple as looking at the bottom line of who won the match to predict the future winner. You have to look at how the points were scored. In Dake's freestyle match against Caldwell, the first period was scoreless and went to the clinch so the points were completely worthless, and the second period had a freestyle specific exchange that could have been scored several different ways. There's not much to take away from that match other than to say they are both tough, and Caldwell could conceivably take Dake down, but it was two years ago, and Dake still found a way to win against a larger competitor (at the time). So the best predictor of their upcoming match is how have they performed more recently. And you'd have to give Dake the edge. Also, when Sanderson wrestled Gutches and lost in freestyle, he pretty clearly demonstrated that he would be favored in folkstyle, and it could be argued that he would have been favored in a freestyle rematch later that day if he had the chance, he just had to make some adjustments and be careful in a few positions. In Taylor's freestyle matches against Howe and Dake, their was very little to demonstrate that Taylor could do anything against those guys. He was completely dominated in all aspects of the match. Hence it was reasonable to predict both Howe and Dake would beat Taylor in folk. Of course now we know that Taylor must have mentally not shown up to wrestle Dake, and his match at the All Star match was much closer. But I would still favor both Howe and Dake over Taylor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just wanted to point out that Hamlin lost to Lofthouse in Freestyle in the off season and defeated him easily in Folk. Also, freestyle world beater Jason Chamberlain has lost already. Several outspoken posters argued with me continuously over the summer telling me how freestyle results are just as predictive in evaluating folk match ups. Well what can I say other then, IN YOUR FACE!!! :twisted:

 

 

On a more serious note, I will say the the best argument against my position; that all the best folk wrestlers end up being the best freestyle wrestlers does have merit. Burroughs, Varner and Scott were all elite in college. In the end, I think the key factor is that some guys skill set transfers more readily to free then others and as long as guys are mixing styles, there will always be confused results such as Lofthouse-Hamlin. Once they all focus on freestyle only, it seems that the college hierarchy is reestablished although not perfectly.

 

Are you 100% sure that Lofthouse and Cahmberlain wouldnt lose in FS right now to the same guys they beat in the summer????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...