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madcat11

Highest probability of winning: rank em.

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It's that time of the season every other 5 days to again predict who has the highest likelihood of winning the title this year. We're not talking about who is the best, but who is farthest from his competition.

 

1. Ruth

2. McDonough

3. St. John

4. Oliver

5. L. Stieber

6. Kilgore

7. Perry

8. Dake

9. Taylor

10. Nelson

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It's that time of the season every other 5 days to again predict who has the highest likelihood of winning the title this year. We're not talking about who is the best, but who is farthest from his competition.

 

1. Ruth

2. McDonough

3. St. John

4. Oliver

5. L. Stieber

6. Kilgore

7. Perry

8. Dake

9. Taylor

10. Maple

 

Im going to say McD has the best chance, him being a 2 time previous Champ at this weight and all and being as dominant as he always was

Then in order:

Ruth (Even moving up in weight, he is a machine)

Perry (He is only this high because 174 doesnt impress me much).

L. Steiber (Don't see him losing if he is focused and makes no mistakes)

Oliver (I wont write off Chamberlin just yet, but Oliver should win)

Kilgore (Can never count out Q in March, but Kilgore is a monster)

St. John (He looks good, but I could see him dropping one in the tournament)

Maple (Hunter is no slouch, plus Mangrum / Graff etc. and Maple needs to prove himself in March)

Dake / Taylor (I put them at the bottom because while I think they are without a doubt two of the best college wrestlers on this list...only one can win and they happen to be in the same weight :D )

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It's that time of the season every other 5 days to again predict who has the highest likelihood of winning the title this year. We're not talking about who is the best, but who is farthest from his competition.

 

1. Ruth

2. McDonough

3. St. John

4. Oliver

5. L. Stieber

6. Kilgore

7. Perry

8. Dake

9. Taylor

10. Maple

I think you forgot a little guy named Nelson

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1. Kilgore-noone at this weight has the combination of speed and strength to knock him off.

2. Maple-noone has the skill to slow him down enough. I keep hearing he needs to prove himself in March but both guys (Marion & Novachkov)he lost to were multiple high placefinishers that wrestled super defensive and wore him down in OT. Don't see anyone else in this weight with that skill set.

3. St. John-Healthy and no Dake he could be #1 here.

4. Ruth-An absolute beast in a super deep weight class with a returning champ. How Bosak comes back from the staph infection greatly affects this position.

5t. Stieber-Is the best in the weight but there are a couple guys close enough that if he has an off day can beat him.

5t. McDonough-See Stieber.

7. Nelson-You can't take this guy down and almost noone can escape from him.

8. Dake- The guy should be #1 but he bumped up into the TOUGHEST top3 weight BY FAR.

I think the odds drop off significantly from here down:

9. Perry- His lack of offense makes him beatable by the top5 or so after him but he is still the most likely to win.

10. Oliver- One of the most talented wrestlers I have been lucky enough to watch over the past 10 years, I am just not sold that 149 is his weight. Guys like Ness, Vinson and Chamberlain have the strength and leverage to give him fits.

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I think you are severly overlooking Hunter Steiber in you analysis of Maple.

 

That aside though, how in the world can you say St. John is more likely to win that McDonough? That is outrageous!!! (and im a huge PSU/Megaludis fan)

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Ruth - I don't see another loss in his collegiate career and I think his hardest match is in the past (Hamlin).

Steiber - With J.O gone, and Ramos being right behind Steiber, I think Logan is a HEAVY favorite. I'd be as shocked as anyone to see him lose here. I still would love to see LS - JO #3.

Matt McD - Super stacked weight with a chance of a potential shocker. McD is a stud though and will cap this senior year off with a 3rd crown. Only if Robles....

J. Oliver - I still think he could be argued as the best pound for pound wrestler in college. I am not saying he IS - but could be argued to be. I think this future Olympic champ caps this year off pretty easily. The weight adjustment will not be difficult with his talent. Still one of my favorite wrestlers over the past few years.

Kilgore - Wilps could give him fits, but I think Kilgore has a very good chance to prove his #1 ranking and will do so.

Perry - I think Perry wins this with Ruth and Nick A gone. Matt Brown could surprise though and I think we have another future NCAA champ in the wings in Logan Storley. Still for now, Perry's weight to lose.

St. John - St. John clearly implemented his #1 status with a convincing win over Napoli. I do however see some great matchups here. James Green and Dylan Alton seem to present good matches and D Alton took St John to the wire last year.

Nelson - I'm not educated enough in this weight, but for what it's worth, Nelson is the man here.

H. Steiber - Most will say Maple. I don't think. I think Stieber wins this year.

Dake - Sorry, but this is way to unclear right now. Maybe this changes after the Scuffle, but Caldwell and DT have to much weight on this class right now. Easily the most interesting weight. Still, Dake is on top for now.

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I think you are severly overlooking Hunter Steiber in you analysis of Maple.

 

That aside though, how in the world can you say St. John is more likely to win that McDonough? That is outrageous!!! (and im a huge PSU/Megaludis fan)

 

Believe me I like Stieber. I firmly believe he will be Maples finals opponent. I simply don't think he can slow down Maple enough to beat him. No slight to Stieber I just think Maple is that solid.

 

As far as St. John goes I don't necessarily think he is a better wrestler than McDonough I just don't think the talent is there in the weight to knock him off while I think there are guys closer to McDonough in his weight. Since the question is highest probability of winning THAT is why I have St. John over McDonough.

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Kilgore eeked out a one point win over the kid from Wyoming and he hasn't seen Wilps or Q yet - as good as he is I can't see him having the best chance of winning.

 

I'd honestly put Steiber #1 - kid is on another level and just gets better and better.

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1. Kilgore-noone at this weight has the combination of speed and strength to knock him off.

2. Maple-noone has the skill to slow him down enough. I keep hearing he needs to prove himself in March but both guys (Marion & Novachkov)he lost to were multiple high placefinishers that wrestled super defensive and wore him down in OT. Don't see anyone else in this weight with that skill set.

3. St. John-Healthy and no Dake he could be #1 here.

4. Ruth-An absolute beast in a super deep weight class with a returning champ. How Bosak comes back from the staph infection greatly affects this position.

5t. Stieber-Is the best in the weight but there are a couple guys close enough that if he has an off day can beat him.

5t. McDonough-See Stieber.

7. Nelson-You can't take this guy down and almost noone can escape from him.

8. Dake- The guy should be #1 but he bumped up into the TOUGHEST top3 weight BY FAR.

I think the odds drop off significantly from here down:

9. Perry- His lack of offense makes him beatable by the top5 or so after him but he is still the most likely to win.

10. Oliver- One of the most talented wrestlers I have been lucky enough to watch over the past 10 years, I am just not sold that 149 is his weight. Guys like Ness, Vinson and Chamberlain have the strength and leverage to give him fits.

 

Very well thought out post.

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4. Ruth-An absolute beast in a super deep weight class with a returning champ. How Bosak comes back from the staph infection greatly affects this position.

Interesting how Hamlin not mentioned here. Hamlin is 4-1 lifetime v. Bosak (only loss was a 1-pt at Cornell). Note that Bosak did not have to go through Hamlin to win his title last year. Ruth is clearly the favorite... but I think a two-handed Hamlin will give him a greater challenge than Bosak.

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Kilgore eeked out a one point win over the kid from Wyoming and he hasn't seen Wilps or Q yet - as good as he is I can't see him having the best chance of winning.

 

I'd honestly put Steiber #1 - kid is on another level and just gets better and better.

 

From what I read on the blog Kilgore was struggling with an illness that week and still only gave up a late takedown for the score to be that close. Remember Hernandez is a returning AA(6th) from last year and isn't exactly chopped liver. He could very well be Kilgores finals opponent in March. If we changed this to who is most likely to stay undefeated I would still go with Kilgore since I just don't see anyone close enough to him to beat him even on an off day.

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I simply don't think he can slow down Maple enough to beat him.

 

 

He won't try.

 

Maple may be the most complete wrestler at all 3 positions in the nation. His weakness last year was his conditioning (against top competition) at the end of matches. If Stieber opens up with him early it could get ugly.

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4. Ruth-An absolute beast in a super deep weight class with a returning champ. How Bosak comes back from the staph infection greatly affects this position.

Interesting how Hamlin not mentioned here. Hamlin is 4-1 lifetime v. Bosak (only loss was a 1-pt at Cornell). Note that Bosak did not have to go through Hamlin to win his title last year. Ruth is clearly the favorite... but I think a two-handed Hamlin will give him a greater challenge than Bosak.

 

By saying its a super deep class I am counting Hamlin at the front of that. I mention Bosak because him fully healthy further deepens that class. I am well aware of the record between the 2. However I do think that Bosak COULD be a more complete wrestler depending on how he comes back from illness. Hamlin is very tough but I think he relies on his defense too much against top competition, it's enough to keep the score close, but he doesn't have the offense for me to see him beating Ruth. I still consider Ruth a clear favorite I just don't see him as far ahead of his competition as the 3 I listed above him.

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Always felt Hamlin would be far more effective wrestling at 174. Great athlete but a tad undersized for the horses at 184. For whatever reason Lehigh has never cut much weight and it hurts them at nationals.

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I think you are severly overlooking Hunter Steiber in you analysis of Maple.

 

That aside though, how in the world can you say St. John is more likely to win that McDonough? That is outrageous!!! (and im a huge PSU/Megaludis fan)

 

Believe me I like Stieber. I firmly believe he will be Maples finals opponent. I simply don't think he can slow down Maple enough to beat him. No slight to Stieber I just think Maple is that solid.

 

As far as St. John goes I don't necessarily think he is a better wrestler than McDonough I just don't think the talent is there in the weight to knock him off while I think there are guys closer to McDonough in his weight. Since the question is highest probability of winning THAT is why I have St. John over McDonough.

 

That is what I was arguing against lol. I know he is not the better wrestler of the two. I just think that saying a 3 time finalist / 2 time champ returning at his weight for his senior season is less likely to win than a 1 time finalist is a bit strange.

 

Especially when I think McD is the most likely to win of anyone in the country lol

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4. Ruth-An absolute beast in a super deep weight class with a returning champ. How Bosak comes back from the staph infection greatly affects this position.

Interesting how Hamlin not mentioned here. Hamlin is 4-1 lifetime v. Bosak (only loss was a 1-pt at Cornell). Note that Bosak did not have to go through Hamlin to win his title last year. Ruth is clearly the favorite... but I think a two-handed Hamlin will give him a greater challenge than Bosak.

 

 

The "two-handed hamlin" argument again? Sheesh.

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I think you are severly overlooking Hunter Steiber in you analysis of Maple.

 

That aside though, how in the world can you say St. John is more likely to win that McDonough? That is outrageous!!! (and im a huge PSU/Megaludis fan)

 

Believe me I like Stieber. I firmly believe he will be Maples finals opponent. I simply don't think he can slow down Maple enough to beat him. No slight to Stieber I just think Maple is that solid.

 

As far as St. John goes I don't necessarily think he is a better wrestler than McDonough I just don't think the talent is there in the weight to knock him off while I think there are guys closer to McDonough in his weight. Since the question is highest probability of winning THAT is why I have St. John over McDonough.

 

That is what I was arguing against lol. I know he is not the better wrestler of the two. I just think that saying a 3 time finalist / 2 time champ returning at his weight for his senior season is less likely to win than a 1 time finalist is a bit strange.

 

I simply looked at each weight INDIVIDUALLY and used the guy most likely to win the weight class. I then looked at his competition and figured the likelihood of him losing during the season and then then at Nationals. I think my top 3 will go undefeated this year which makes them essentially the top 3. I see McD taking a loss this year, and although I don't think it will be at nationals that is why I put him a step behind my top 3.

 

Especially when I think McD is the most likely to win of anyone in the country lol

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Always felt Hamlin would be far more effective wrestling at 174. Great athlete but a tad undersized for the horses at 184. For whatever reason Lehigh has never cut much weight and it hurts them at nationals.

Hamlin @ 174: 18-12

Hamlin @ 184: 66-7

 

Not sure I agree with the, "Lehigh has never cut much weight" comment. Recent weight cutters that immediately come to mind...

 

Cooperman @ 133: cost him an AA as a frosh. In a later seaon, he was the subject of an MTV show that covered his weight cutting.

 

Cagnina @ 133

 

Zinck @ 157

 

both Ciasulli brothers @ 133

 

T. Frick making AA as a soph @ 184, then dropping to 174 for his final two seasons & placing 6th as a senior.

 

Matt Anderson @ 149: truly looked like a walking stick insect. he's definitely the winner

 

Baculum-ssp,I_NAT2052.jpg

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Anderson was one of my favorites during his days. I always thought that if Nick Simmons had coached him for a season, he could improve dramatically. He made up his own tall-guy moves and was decently successful about half the time with them, and I think Nick's higher-probability moves would've added a lot to his arsenal.

 

Wasn't Letters also a decent cutter? Maybe it's because his upper body was so huge compared to his legs, but he always looked a weight or two bigger than his opponents from the waist up to me. He had the biggest delta between upper and lower body mass of anyone I've seen since Chris Campbell (at least during his college years).

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