PSU lineup 2015

[wrestlingnerd 3,004]

Zain impressed me during the freestyle season.  IMO he would win 141 pretty easy.  149 will be tougher.  I was really impressed how Zain stopped Pico's snap for the most part.  Their first few matches Pico was snapping him at will, I'm not sure if it was due to strength though, more a better game plan.

 

Better game plan, good coaching. He held his ground better and kept his stance better. In the first match, he was kind of all over the place, wrestling Pico as he'd wrestle anybody. You can't move around that much and have Pico chase you around the mat in freestyle. You'll give up a lot of 1-pointers or get snapped around like a ragdoll. If you're going to do that, you need to be able to shoot and penetrate, so that the motion is a threat, which Zain couldn't do.This time around, Zain had a better game plan. He still got outhorsed, but I really thought given how much Pico has improved since they last met (he was close with Metcalf in a 9-minute match!), Zain would get teched. Instead, he more than kept up with Pico's improvement.

Edited May 13, 2015 by wrestlingnerd

[wrestlingphish 1,029]

The match with Metcalf was only 6 minutes under official freestyle rules.

[Plasmodium 2,261]

I think Retherford will win at least one match against Pico next month.  The dude has moxy.

[jammen 339]

Your biggest and most consistent prediction over the years has been that Cael Sanderson can't coach. How'd that work out for you? 

Acually, I've said that Cael's coaching ability will be determined after the double class and the two wunderkinds have graduated.  Then Cael promptly threw in the towel.  How'd that work out for you?

[Perry 1,429]

It's hard to snap someone down When they're giving you the Derek st john treatment (hands to face non stop from neutral). I don't see Zain beating pico, hes just too good at getting to Zain legs when he wants to.

 

I'm curious, how big is retherford? Is 141 completely out of the question? I can't help but think penn state would be better with him at 141. If he bumps and nolf stays 157 where does that leave Joseph in a couple years?

[TBar1977 4,538]

Acually, I've said that Cael's coaching ability will be determined after the double class and the two wunderkinds have graduated.  Then Cael promptly threw in the towel.  How'd that work out for you?

 

 

For starters you were wrong. When a man wins four straight NCAA titles his ability to coach is self evident to anyone whose head isn't buried in the sand along the shores of one of Minnesota's 10,000 lakes.

 

As to his plan to redshirt those guys,. it worked out great imo. We are loaded. 

Edited May 13, 2015 by TBar1977

[TBar1977 4,538]

It's hard to snap someone down When they're giving you the Derek st john treatment (hands to face non stop from neutral). I don't see Zain beating pico, hes just too good at getting to Zain legs when he wants to.

 

I'm curious, how big is retherford? Is 141 completely out of the question? I can't help but think penn state would be better with him at 141. If he bumps and nolf stays 157 where does that leave Joseph in a couple years?

 

 

 

Nolf will be at 165 in a couple of years, so Joseph can wrestle at 157. 

[MSU158 2,012]

My reservations about PSU isn't that they aren't deep and talented.  It is that they don't have a clear favorite to reach the finals, let alone win it.  They look eerily similar to the Iowa team of this past season.  Many called them the favorite or underperformers.  I disagreed.  I think they did nearly exactly what they should have for the seeds they EARNED during the season.

 

Iowa had 6 AA's and 1 finalist.  Even if Moore AA's they still lose unless he makes the finals.  If I had to guess I would say PSU qualifies 10 just like Iowa did and ends up with 7 AA's and 1 finalist. I see mostly 4-8 finishes with a 2nd and a 3rd.  Again very similar to Iowa this past season.

 

Not having a guy guaranteed to score 25 points makes it a ton harder to be the favorite.  That is why I am picking OkState to win it all.  I still consider tOSU the preseason favorite, but Dierenger will score 26+ and OkState only needs to score 76+ between the 9 other guys to realistically get it done.  Klimara, Heil, Crutchmer and Marsden have all reached the podium.  Harding, Collica and Boyd have gained valuable experience.  Marstellar and Blees will get a chance to show their stuff.  This is the team I think will be a force come March.

Edited May 13, 2015 by MSU158

[wrestlingnerd 3,004]

I'm curious, how big is retherford? Is 141 completely out of the question? I can't help but think penn state would be better with him at 141. If he bumps and nolf stays 157 where does that leave Joseph in a couple years?

Joseph could go 157 because I see no way the growing Nolf holds 157 for more than a year. He may outgrow the weight by next season for all we know.

[wrestlingnerd 3,004]

My reservations about PSU isn't that they aren't deep and talented. It is that they don't have a clear favorite to reach the finals, let alone win it. They look eerily similar to the Iowa team of this past season.

I think you're not giving Mega enough credit. Garrett stated he's moving up so I'll take his word for it until I see otherwise. That makes Mega as good a finalist candidate as anyone. I'd actually go as far as to say he's my favorite to win it all.

 

I agree with your assessment on the rest of the team though.

[MSU158 2,012]

wrestlingnerd,

 

I don't disagree with you about Mega.  I did pick him to take 2nd in an earlier post.  Still, I can't in good conscience call him a clear favorite to be a finalist when both finalists from this past season return!

[TBar1977 4,538]

My reservations about PSU isn't that they aren't deep and talented.  It is that they don't have a clear favorite to reach the finals, let alone win it.  They look eerily similar to the Iowa team of this past season.  Many called them the favorite or underperformers.  I disagreed.  I think they did nearly exactly what they should have for the seeds they EARNED during the season.

 

Iowa had 6 AA's and 1 finalist.  Even if Moore AA's they still lose unless he makes the finals.  If I had to guess I would say PSU qualifies 10 just like Iowa did and ends up with 7 AA's and 1 finalist. I see mostly 4-8 finishes with a 2nd and a 3rd.  Again very similar to Iowa this past season.

 

Not having a guy guaranteed to score 25 points makes it a ton harder to be the favorite.  That is why I am picking OkState to win it all.  I still consider tOSU the preseason favorite, but Dierenger will score 26+ and OkState only needs to score 76+ between the 9 other guys to realistically get it done.  Klimara, Heil, Crutchmer and Marsden have all reached the podium.  Harding, Collica and Boyd have gained valuable experience.  Marstellar and Blees will get a chance to show their stuff.  This is the team I think will be a force come March.

 

 

 

MSU, those other 9 weights (8 in their case) included a returning NCAA finalist this year for Okie State and they scored only 40 points between all those 9 weights. So next year they are going to basically double that number? I can see it going up for sure, but I don't see it doubling. 

 

Also, they couldn't beat Penn State this past year when we were sitting all those guys. I count a lot more points coming off the bench than the 22 we lost with Matt Brown's graduation. Not sure about your overall thesis. 

[OtisCampbell 94]

I think you're not giving Mega enough credit. Garrett stated he's moving up so I'll take his word for it until I see otherwise. That makes Mega as good a finalist candidate as anyone. I'd actually go as far as to say he's my favorite to win it all.

 

I agree with your assessment on the rest of the team though.

I think there are 3 or 4 guys that can beat Nico. There are new guys on the scene like Tomesello & Mosely that will give Nico all he can handle along with Gilman & Dance who are anything but easy outs for Nico.  

 

Nico will have his hands full at 125. 

[MSU158 2,012]

TBar,

 

 

I simply like the rate of improvement Smith's teams have shown over the past few seasons.  Adding in Marstellar(who I still expect to be really, really good) I think they could be very strong from top to bottom.  Nothing is etched in stone.  That is why I didn't say they are favorites. I simply said this is the team I expect to be the favorites by March.

 

125:Klimara-He looked hungry and energized this past season.  I see a Top 5 finish.

133:Harding-Got better as the season went on.  Just looked pretty damn solid at Juniors.

141:Heil-Proved he was the recruit he was supposed to be.  141 thins out a ton.  I expect a similar finish.

149:Collica- After 2 years at being at the wrong weight class, he will AA at the right one.

{How 157-197 are manned will be as big of a factor as how PSU mans 133-165.}

157:Marstellar-I don't like him here, but this is where I keep reading he will be. I would prefer Blees here and him at 165.  This would obviously put Ringer up at 174.  Still, I just can't see him missing the podium. 

165:Dierenger-He will bonus everyone not named Jordan.  He may very well bonus them as well.

174:Crutchmer-Looked really good at the NCAA tournament.  He is the highest returning AA.  That doesn't necessarily mean he will win it, but it sure puts him in the conversation.

184:Boyd-Solid guy.  Very similar to McCutcheon.  With the right draw he could AA.  Wrong draw 1-2 or 2-2.

197:Schafer/?-Schafer had moments but as of now this is a large hole.

285:Marsden-I was shocked he didn't AA.  I see a big rebound finish out of him this season.

 

This lineup has a ton of experience and Marstellar and who wrestles 197 are the only real unknowns as far as reasonable projections.  I just see this team as loaded with potential and it has been too long since Smith has won 1.  I think he will get it done this upcoming season.

[TBar1977 4,538]

Nico might also win the 125 title. His only losses the past two competitive years in folkstyle have been 1pt. losses to Zanetta and McDonough 2 years ago and then 3 close losses to Garrett and Delgado each. Everyone else he beat, including by 6-1 over Joey Dance. 

[TBar1977 4,538]

TBar,

 

 

I simply like the rate of improvement Smith's teams have shown over the past few seasons.  Adding in Marstellar(who I still expect to be really, really good) I think they could be very strong from top to bottom.  Nothing is etched in stone.  That is why I didn't say they are favorites. I simply said this is the team I expect to be the favorites by March.

 

125:Klimara-He looked hungry and energized this past season.  I see a Top 5 finish.

133:Harding-Got better as the season went on.  Just looked pretty damn solid at Juniors.

141:Heil-Proved he was the recruit he was supposed to be.  141 thins out a ton.  I expect a similar finish.

149:Collica- After 2 years at being at the wrong weight class, he will AA at the right one.

{How 157-197 are manned will be as big of a factor as how PSU mans 133-165.}

157:Marstellar-I don't like him here, but this is where I keep reading he will be. I would prefer Blees here and him at 165.  This would obviously put Ringer up at 174.  Still, I just can't see him missing the podium. 

165:Dierenger-He will bonus everyone not named Jordan.  He may very well bonus them as well.

174:Crutchmer-Looked really good at the NCAA tournament.  He is the highest returning AA.  That doesn't necessarily mean he will win it, but it sure puts him in the conversation.

184:Boyd-Solid guy.  Very similar to McCutcheon.  With the right draw he could AA.  Wrong draw 1-2 or 2-2.

197:Schafer/?-Schafer had moments but as of now this is a large hole.

285:Marsden-I was shocked he didn't AA.  I see a big rebound finish out of him this season.

 

This lineup has a ton of experience and Marstellar and who wrestles 197 are the only real unknowns as far as reasonable projections.  I just see this team as loaded with potential and it has been too long since Smith has won 1.  I think he will get it done this upcoming season.

 

 

 

OK MSU, so let's look closely at what you believe. 

 

197 - You see the same hole as they had this past season. I am going to mark this down as no change in team points at NCAA. The 9 other weights I will do in order. +0

 

125 - You have Klimara as a top 5 guy. Here is a list of some 125's for next year - Tomasello, Moisey, Youtsey, Megaludis, Gilman, Joey Dance, Stephen Micic, and Dalton Macri who Eddie beat by 1 point last year. Maybe Eddie is 5th, maybe not. Even if he is 5th, how much improvement over 9.5 points would he get? He could finish the same 7th and score even fewer points. +0

 

133 - Harding is a good wrestler. If he is improved then he might be a R12 guy. He scored 2 points this past year, so how many next year? 4? OK. +2

 

141 - You predict a similar 4th place finish. Fibe by me. He gets the same 12.5 points. +0

 

149 - You are penciling in Collica as an AA in a pretty loaded weight. I'll give him 8th and 6.5 points. +6.5

 

157 - You have Marstellar here, which I am not sure wil;l ever actually happen. I don't think he can cut the weight. I am assuming it is Blees. I think he will do about as well as Collica did last year. Collica scored 2 points. +0

 

165 - Deiringer gets an automatic 26 points. +1

 

174 I'm happy to give Crutchmer his same 5th place and 10 points. I will even give him the benefit of the doubt and move him all the way up to 2nd place. Why I don't know, but ZI will do it. Now he earns, say, 18 points. +8. 

 

184 - Boyd got a rough draw this past year and scored only 1 point. He can do better, but the weight class is LOADED. I will give him R12 and 2.5pts. +1.5

 

Hwt - I too was shocked Marsden did not AA, so I will give him an AA finish this coming year. Say 5th place, 9.5 points. +6.5 points.

 

Their score increases by 25.5 points under this scenario. This is giving them the benefit of the doubt everywhere except Marstellar making weight at 157. And even if you think he will make that weight, which in my view is a huge IF, something will go wrong somewhere else to even it out. So they end up with 90.5 pts. under my scenario. I don't think this wins it. 

[jtothep 29]

My reservations about PSU isn't that they aren't deep and talented.  It is that they don't have a clear favorite to reach the finals, let alone win it.  They look eerily similar to the Iowa team of this past season.  Many called them the favorite or underperformers.  I disagreed.  I think they did nearly exactly what they should have for the seeds they EARNED during the season.

 

I realize you qualified it with 'nearly exactly' what they should have, but I already had the data charted, so here it is:

 

 

They left roughly 13 team points on the table by underachieving their seeds. And with Jevva's plummet to the Round of 24, they fell 14 ordinal spots short of their seeds.

 

I understand your analogy, but 'clear favorites to reach the finals' are pretty hard to come by at tourney time--they're far more so in the offseason. Heading into St. Louis for clear finals favorites, we had Logie, iMart, Dieringer, Gwiz. Maybe also Dean or Houdashelt? But last summer who makes that list? Probably only Logie. Maybe Dieringer, but he was bumping up a weight & had a lot of possible hiccups, on paper. Heavyweight returned a bevy of talent to challenge Gwiz and nobody was predicting iMart's onslaught.

 

Offseason 'clear favorites' is a high bar, but Nico's already been there twice and McIntosh has beaten everybody who's been there. Retherford is bumping a weight, but the only two guys to have ever beaten him are gone. And Nolf & Nickal are at least as paper-tigery as Tomasello & Bo Jordan, if not World Champ Snyder.

 

Last summer Iowa looked just about where they finished: a nice team with lots of depth/breadth, fingers-crossed hopefuls in Sorensen, Moore & Jevva, and very little top-end firepower.

 

Penn State this offseason looks far more top-heavy. And perhaps just as deep.

[jammen 339]

When two men wins four straight NCAA titles ...... 

fify

[TBar1977 4,538]

To add to what jto just wrote, Mega is the only college wrestler ranked in the Senior rankings. He's gone 2,2,3. He won University Nationals. The odds are pretty high that he will be the top ranked guy in the weight regardless of what happened at this past year's NCAA's. 

 

Zain is the only college wrestler ranked in the Senior rankings at either weight surrounding the college 149 rankings. He rather easily handled Henderson and Sorenson in freestyle. Tsirtsis beat him a couple of years ago when he had a distinct size advantage, but that is gone now. I think he comes right in and dominates guys. 

 

Nolf will come right in and be a bonus point machine reghardless of where he wrestles. He's a take down machine and he can ride extremely well. There is only 1 guy at each of 157 and 165 that I put beyond his reach right now, I Mar at 157 and Ringer at 165. Not saying he will definitely beat everyone else, but he has the ability to do so and they will have to bust a lung to stay with him gas tank wise. 

 

Nickal and Nevills will do pretty well, but their mountains to climb are a little higher and a little steeper. 

[TBar1977 4,538]

fify

 

 

LOL. That is the first time I have seen you flummoxed. 

[MSU158 2,012]

jtothep,

 

I am sorry, but there are some flaws to your system.  To say Telford left 3.5 points out their because of his finish just doesn't look at the full picture.  I understand ignoring bonus points to some extent but in Telford's case he likely scored as much(13.5) dropping early but only taking 5th as he would have if he properly advanced in the top half as a 3rd seed. If he beat Myers, his opponents would have been Stolfi, Coon, McMullen, Lawson(whom he beat 6-0 for 5th) and Medberry.

 

Evans took 6th losing to 2 guys he had lost to 596 billion times.  He wrestled to his seed on the top half and was rewarded with Kokesh when he finally lost to Brown.  At worst he is a 1 point drop off.

 

Dziewa was the one real drop off.  And his draw SUCKED.

 

In the end Iowa's actual score was 1 point higher than their projected score without bonus. 

 

Still add the 14 points and they finish in EXACTLY the same position, 2nd!  And that is with EVERYONE performing at or above seed, which rarely happens.....

[jtothep 29]

jtothep,

 

I am sorry, but there are some flaws to your system.  To say Telford left 3.5 points out their because of his finish just doesn't look at the full picture.  I understand ignoring bonus points to some extent but in Telford's case he likely scored as much(13.5) dropping early but only taking 5th as he would have if he properly advanced in the top half as a 3rd seed. If he beat Myers, his opponents would have been Stolfi, Coon, McMullen, Lawson(whom he beat 6-0 for 5th) and Medberry.

 

Evans took 6th losing to 2 guys he had lost to 596 billion times.  He wrestled to his seed on the top half and was rewarded with Kokesh when he finally lost to Brown.  At worst he is a 1 point drop off.

 

Dziewa was the one real drop off.  And his draw SUCKED.

 

In the end Iowa's actual score was 1 point higher than their projected score without bonus. 

 

Still add the 14 points and they finish in EXACTLY the same position, 2nd!  And that is with EVERYONE performing at or above seed, which rarely happens.....

 

Haha, yes, it's definitely flawed, but it's about as good as gets as far as projecting Placement + Advancement points based on seed. Here's the chart I use to do so:

 

Obviously, there are tons of ways to navigate a bracket (see A.J. Schopp's route to 3rd this year: 1 c-ship loss & 7 consi wins), so I chose the most-possible-wins-in-championship-bracket route.

 

And Bonus Points are the real wild-card--no algo can even semi-accurately project those.

 

I also gave the wrestler the benefit of the doubt inside one group of eliminated wrestlers in a session, to minimize the ordinal differentials. R24 finisher Jevva got 16, instead of 24.

 

And then there's the draws, as you note. Jevva probably screwed himself with his high finish at B1Gs & was probably over-seeded. Telford got ripped off by drawing an improving Spencer Myers so early. Brooks got stuck with Dean. I feel ya on Evans and the coin-flip battles of 174, but that's the second year in a row he's gone 0-3 after reaching the semis. Moore & Kelly were probably injured (I'm hoping--to avoid sadness on their behalves).

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,050]

a nice healthy betting market would help sort out this over/under preforming thing. 

 

ah well, MSU158 and jtothep aren't a bad substitute. 

[OtisCampbell 94]

To add to what jto just wrote, Mega is the only college wrestler ranked in the Senior rankings. He's gone 2,2,3. He won University Nationals. The odds are pretty high that he will be the top ranked guy in the weight regardless of what happened at this past year's NCAA's. 

 

Zain is the only college wrestler ranked in the Senior rankings at either weight surrounding the college 149 rankings. He rather easily handled Henderson and Sorenson in freestyle. Tsirtsis beat him a couple of years ago when he had a distinct size advantage, but that is gone now. I think he comes right in and dominates guys. 

 

Nolf will come right in and be a bonus point machine reghardless of where he wrestles. He's a take down machine and he can ride extremely well. There is only 1 guy at each of 157 and 165 that I put beyond his reach right now, I Mar at 157 and Ringer at 165. Not saying he will definitely beat everyone else, but he has the ability to do so and they will have to bust a lung to stay with him gas tank wise. 

 

Nickal and Nevills will do pretty well, but their mountains to climb are a little higher and a little steeper. 

With him getting beat by Nashon last time he wrestled at NCAAs and him never winning it. I can think of a lot of scenarios where he is not the preseason #1. 

[TBar1977 4,538]

With him getting beat by Nashon last time he wrestled at NCAAs and him never winning it. I can think of a lot of scenarios where he is not the preseason #1. 

 

 

 

Just not any where Garrett is at 133, which is where everyone connected to Cornell says he will be.