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Katie

Dake discussion

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Dake is an amazing wrestler. 4 NCAA titles proves that. He is excellent defensively, he is excellent with counters, and 99% of the time if he tries to outgun you he will. He's already beaten world medalists. And on top of all that, right now I think he's better than the average world team member. 

 

If Burroughs wrestles through the 2020 Olympics I think Dake is his only guaranteed threat. (We'll have to see how Dieringer and iMart develop.) So if Dake stays at 74kg , it makes all the sense in the world. 

 

But imagine if Dake went to 70kg. He could challenge for medals right away. (I believe there will be a 70kg world championship next year even though its not an Olympic weight.) He could also start building a name for himself, and he could get exposure to the high-pressure environment at worlds as he aims to make the 2020 Olympics. I think it makes all the sense in the universe.

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Again, nowhere near the inside, but guess Greco is totally out for Dake? Then again, getting through Bisek is no easy road either. Wonder how Dake did against Bisek in Greco. Pretty sure JB wrestled Bisek as well. Would love to hear about (or see videos) of Bisek vs JB & KD in Greco. Did Bisek smash em? 

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If Dake more than held his own against the world champ, I very highly doubt anyone in the U.S. smashed him.

 

Shame of it is Dake would have to beat Bisek who is arguably (based on 2014) our best wrestler. Similar issue in FS.

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So were they razor thin matches or does Bisek beat Dake handily in Greco? I have no idea. 

 

BTW, I was there when Dake wrestled Julfakalyan in Greco. Yes, Dake held his own, but the champ from Armenia can pretty much turn anyone, and usually multiple times, and he did against Dake. Yes, Dake turned Arsen once, but still lost..

 

(3 points of interest - 1. Dake was on the Jr World Greco team in the past. 2. It was funny to hear Arsen's post match interview, he really didn't want to mix it up with the freestyle guy in neutral on their feet. Sounded like he was skeptical of different, weird, stuff from the freestyle wrestler. 3. Arsen expressed wrestling Burroughs in that same interview.)  

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BTW, I was there when Dake wrestled Julfakalyan in Greco. Yes, Dake held his own, but the champ from Armenia can pretty much turn anyone, and usually multiple times, and he did against Dake. Yes, Dake turned Arsen once, but still lost..

 

Have you ever wrestled greco? It's a completely different sport. I know Lindland likes to say wrestling is wrestling, etc, and yes, of course, greco is wrestling, but the move from FS to GR is absolutely enormous. You have to train your instincts and body to do completely different things. 

 

If you seriously thought what Dake did in that match only warrants a "but still lost...", you have no clue how hard it is to make the transition. How many GR guys who weigh 163 could keep from getting teched by Burroughs?

 

I repeat, if the world champ could not smash Dake, all the Biseks in the world aren't smashing him either.

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Bisek wasn't too far off the world title last year though time will tell if it's a one time thing.

 

Dake mentioned he was learning a lot, just trying to improve, etc after training Greco so he probably wasn't winning all his training matches but I have no clue about scores.

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2 things,

 

-Dake is going to go whatever weight he is comfortable at regardless of the competition.  The last thing he does is avoid competition.  I guarantee he has Burrroughs on his mind and wants his spot.  Whether he stays at the weight or not, "avoiding" Burroughs just isn't on his itinerary.

 

-If Dake decided to compete full time at Greco, he would make the team.  I have to disagree with wrestlingnerd on the whole different sport thing.  It is a different skill set but the fundamentals are all there.  Handfighting, top offense, and bottom defense are your core things and Dake is pretty solid in all 3.

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Just a little surprised that Dake went back and dabbled a lit bit in Greco, then next thing you know, he has nothing to do with Greco.

 

So I was sort of thinking the same thing, he gave the World Greco champ a good fight at MSG (albeit exhibition), he was on a Junior World Greco team, so he must not be that far behind Bisek. Or is he?

 

Why did he wrestle a Greco match at MSG? Don't get me wrong, I thought it was the coolest thing he challenged the World champ, and after that match, I was like, Bisek better watch out.

 

So what happened? Does Dake have little interest in Greco? Or is it he can't beat Bisek? Or is he just focused on the 74 freestyle title?

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My thought is that perhaps Dake should consider dropping to 70 kg. I think by doing so he would immediately become a World medal threat. I'm not sure what United World Wrestling will do in 2016 about 61 & 70 Kg. I know that many seem to think that they would hold an off site championship for those two weights, which I think they should absolutely do.

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It's way too early to start thinking Dake is going to do something else. JB has an edge on Dake right now and it's pretty clear that something needs to change for Dake to be the man at 74kg, but it's hardly unprecedented.

 

First there are all the scenarios where JB steps away. Injury, life change and so on.

 

Then there is the simple fact that JB has been focused 100% on freestyle since 2011 while Dake won his last NCAA title in 2013 and shortly after suffered an injury which kept him out a year. Dake could easily believe that 2015 Dake would have an edge on 2011 JB but that JB simply gained a lot from four plus years focusing on freestyle. And so Dake would conclude that if he stays healthy he will too. And this is before we take into account Dake's not backing down from any competition ever. So I would not see Dake going anywhere for at least a few years even if he loses to JB ten more times. 

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Stop making sense BTF. There are some who believe that experience stops counting once you're a senior, which is why they have age groups. Once you're a senior, whether you've focused on freestyle for one season or 10 seasons, it doesn't matter.

Lol, yeah. But I'm guessing you don't believe that, at least not entirely. 

 

By the way, it's worse than that, there are those who believe if you haven't been a 3x state champ from a top school you can never succeed. And guess what, if you were strictly trying to make logical bets it's always best to stick with the incumbents.But what fun would that be?

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Dake aside, Andy Bisek doesn't get nearly the amount of respect he deserves, imo.  World Greco at 74Kgs is absolutely no joke, and he could win the whole thing this year. 

I remember hearing that Dake suffered one of his serious injuries while wrestling Justin Harry Lester at the OTC, though I can't verify that for certain. Greco training is absolutely brutal on the body.  Even so,  Dake could probably be a very good Greco wrestler in a couple of years, he had excellent coaching from Scott Green (now Sems head coach) while in HS, and has never shied away from a tie-up or potential throw in folkstyle or freestyle, but all that is different from training Greco every day for a decade.  Bisek is one of the best in the world, not some easy road to get through even in comparison to JB. 

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Dake could easily believe that 2015 Dake would have an edge on 2011 JB but that JB simply gained a lot from four plus years focusing on freestyle. And so Dake would conclude that if he stays healthy he will too. 

 

That doesn't make any sense. What could possibly give Dake a basis for thinking he is currently better than Burroughs was in 2011? What kind of person just takes for granted they'd be a world champion in a different year? 

 

But that's not even relevant. The issue is whether Dake thinks he can ever beat the Burroughs that exists today. As of now, Burroughs is one of the best p4p wrestlers in the world, and one of the best we've ever had. There's no guarantee that simply focusing on freestyle more will you get you past that level. In fact its statistically very unlikely. Remember that Burroughs is already clearly a better freestyler than Cael ever was. 

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Alright let me throw this one out. Dake and Burroughs have to wrestle each other 10 times (not all in the same day, within 10 days or whatever schedule). Does Burroughs go 10-0?  

Burroughs has already gone 4-0 against Dake, and he'd be favored in the next six matches. Anybody can lose, though, including Burroughs. 

Edited by Katie

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That doesn't make any sense. What could possibly give Dake a basis for thinking he is currently better than Burroughs was in 2011? What kind of person just takes for granted they'd be a world champion in a different year? 

 

But that's not even relevant. The issue is whether Dake thinks he can ever beat the Burroughs that exists today. As of now, Burroughs is one of the best p4p wrestlers in the world, and one of the best we've ever had. There's no guarantee that simply focusing on freestyle more will you get you past that level. In fact its statistically very unlikely. Remember that Burroughs is already clearly a better freestyler than Cael ever was. 

Either Dake believes that the last however many matches were a fluke and he's actually better than JB right now, or more likely, he believes he will be able to beat him in the future. If he doesn't then that's what doesn't make sense. 

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I think it's 8/10 for JB today. 

 

But since we are engaging in hypotheticals, how about this one. How many times would JB win if he had to wrestler a mini-tournament and beat Taylor and Howe on the same day while Dake was re-hydrating all day?

odds at the start of the tournament would 85% JB wins the whole thing. odds once JB is squaring off with a dehydrated and rested Dake after winning the mini tournament is 90-95%

 

not super confident on those numbers. could be convinced its + or - a decent %. 

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There are certainly flaws with the current system, though I personally prefer it to the past.  Remember how much everyone complained on here when we sent wrestlers to Worlds who didn't have as much international success and then unsurprisingly they didn't do much?  I think that the final 2/3 should be the next day, simple fix. 

 

However, people are seriously overrating the disadvantage of going through the minitournament.  Depending on the wrestler, there are cons to having your first match be the most important too.  Obviously it's more of an advantage overall to rest and not go through the tournament, but having a few tough matches prepares you as well.  It's not an accident that wrestlers tend to look their best at Worlds later in the tournament rather than the first couple matches.  That's certainly been the case with Burroughs btw.

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